packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well, most of the models are on board for some winter weather in the SE for Sunday. GFS has been the most consistent with other models trending towards that solution. Here is the latest GEFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Whoops! I meant 1/17/16 for the title. Can a mod change that? I can't seem to do it or delete the thread. Thanks! The pressure is on to deliver It was time to start a thread as all models are showing something for parts of the SE, even if only an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 The pressure is on to deliver It was time to start a thread as all models are showing something for parts of the SE, even if only an inch or two. No pressure here. I can't control the weather. Just trying to filter all of the storm talk/model discussion into one place. I'm not superstitious (fingers crossed). I can't even get the date right...WE'RE DOOMED!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here is Matthew East's morning video that will break down the latest model runs for you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a793jawke6I&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 All in for this. The Euro trends have been in our favor and the GFS has been steady. If we could get just a little bit more cold air I would feel much better, but 5 days out, we couldn't have a much better look than we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 06z GEFS probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I really think it will be about how much precip do we get here in central NC. The trend ever since fall is for the rain totals to increase as the system gets closer here. I don't see any reason to think that will change until it actually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks good for us in the Atlanta area. It looks good in other places too just, focusing on the metro with 5,000,000 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can someone tell me how it's going to be cold enough for snow outside of the foothills/mountains? I know "ignore model temps this far out" is popular, but other than hanging our hats on that, is there anything that is realistic that can happen to allow the surface to cool enough to overcome light precip rates, assuming the rates are in fact light? Here are the factors I can come up with: 1) The Lakes low moves out quicker or turns out not to be there (but this has been a pretty steadfast feature, so I'm not sure how realistic that is), allowing high pressure to build in faster. 2) The models are way off on projected temps and dew points. But none of them really look cold enough to me. Are they all wrong? 3) A phase with the northern energy (this also is not shown anywhere and doesn't look likely). 4) The low bombs (again, not shown and doesn't look likely). In this scenario, without good cold advection present, the bombing low wouldn't really be drawing cold air in at the surface anyway. 5) Precip rates could be heavy enough to cool the column to at or just above freezing to support snow or a rain/snow mix. I guess this could happen. Is there any realistic mechanism that could be present to get temps colder than what we're staring at right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Fishel said temps wouldn't be the problem, it would be precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can someone tell me how it's going to be cold enough for snow outside of the foothills/mountains? I know "ignore model temps this far out" is popular, but other than hanging our hats on that, is there anything that is realistic that can happen to allow the surface to cool enough to overcome light precip rates, assuming the rates are in fact light? Here are the factors I can come up with: 1) The Lakes low moves out quicker or turns out not to be there (but this has been a pretty steadfast feature, so I'm not sure how realistic that is), allowing high pressure to build in faster. 2) The models are way off on projected temps and dew points. But none of them really look cold enough to me. Are they all wrong? 3) A phase with the northern energy (this also is not shown anywhere and doesn't look likely). 4) The low bombs (again, not shown and doesn't look likely). In this scenario, without good cold advection present, the bombing low wouldn't really be drawing cold air in at the surface anyway. 5) Precip rates could be heavy enough to cool the column to at or just above freezing to support snow or a rain/snow mix. I guess this could happen. Is there any realistic mechanism that could be present to get temps colder than what we're staring at right now? Just looking at the past GFS runs the surface dew points continue to get colder as we get closer to the event. As others have stated, this is where the NAM might do a better job once we're within three days. 6z GFS dew points as precip is moving into NC. Notice there is now sub 30 degree temps moving into north NC. Next frame then pushes it back some but this does show a colder solution. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=06&fhour=102¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Edit: the below 30 degree dew points are actually in place for N. NC at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Just looking at the past GFS runs the surface dew points continue to get colder as we get closer to the event. As others have stated, this is where the NAM might do a better job once we're within three days. 6z GFS dew points as precip is moving into NC. Notice there is now sub 30 degree temps moving into north NC. Next frame then pushes it back some but this does show a colder solution. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=06&fhour=102¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Edit: the below 30 degree dew points are actually in place for N. NC at hour 96. Thanks man. Seems like we have a ways to go still. I don't mean to say it can't change. I guess I'm just wondering what synoptic elements we need to be watching for other than the fallback "the models just don't have a handle on temps yet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Something interesting to watch for the weekend. I wish this would turn into a 2-foot surprise on Sunday, but the odds of that are close to that of winning the Powerball tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Powerball??? What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wish it'd come in moreso overnight rather than 7am-1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Man, the euro parallel EPS is getting close this weekend, then a negatively tilted trough the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Cold Rain - the 06z GFS sounding isn't that bad actually (near Charlotte below). It's cold aloft, with a thin warm layer at the sfc - hard to read, but that's 32 deg dewpoint and 34 temp at the sfc. The 500mb vort max passing to our south argues for this to be cold aloft. The near sfc temps would be the question...precip occurring at night helps (every little bit helps). So, that sounding would imply a rain/snow mix or wet snow (probably wet snow). Of course, that's GFS verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Thanks, Grit. I forgot the precip falling at night bullet point in my list above. Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The 84 he nam ( yes I know) is not what we want to see. Positive tilt and not even really close at all. Thank god it's the 84 Hr nam Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I like my chances for a sloppy inch but I'm worried about watching a lot of virga. GFS has me at around 33 during the precip so with our ground temps being cold and it being at night if it does fall it should stick some. Anything will be nice after the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The only thing messing everyone up right now are with the models showing all the convection at the Low pressure center which is limiting moisture. Git rid of that and we're golden ponyboy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Something tells me this may be more of an overrunning event, but until the surface features come into better agreement, that's simply speculation. Kind of has that look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z gfs Para weenie run!http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&group=Model%20Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113%2006%20UTC&area=namer&cycle=06&fhr=099¶m=200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht&ps=area&size=medium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Lol...http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_102_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=380&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Lol...http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_102_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=380&scrolly=0 Have the MA folks picked up on this one yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks good to me sir Lol...http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_102_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=380&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z gfs Para weenie run!http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&group=Model%20Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113%2006%20UTC&area=namer&cycle=06&fhr=099¶m=200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht&ps=area&size=medium Question: What's the difference between the normal GFS and the GFS parallel model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Lol...http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_102_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=380&scrolly=0 Awesome run for the foothills and mountains...and portions of the western piedmont! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Question: What's the difference between the normal GFS and the GFS parallel model? Parallel is like a beta for the upgrade. It will replace the current GFS version this spring, I think.... May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Higher resolution and improved physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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