hurricaneman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I feel a La Nina might be coming later in the year but for right now El Nino is holding strong but for how long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looking more and more likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Practically every long range model has this flipping to a Nina of varying strengths by next winter. Makes sense given the response to the downwelling that has been responsible for this historic Nino event. Interested to see how fast this transition occurs given the current WWB is leading to another downwelling wave that may lead to the El Nino hanging on longer, perhaps similar to the 1983-84 decay (which was into a cold-neutral/weak Nina). There is some guidance (CANSIPS, SCRIPPS, SST Constructed Analogue, etc.) that suggests a very strong Nina may develop, perhaps comparable to the shift from 1973 into 1974. I would like to see a thermocline long-depth plot for years before the 1980s, although I haven't been able to find any. In addition to ENSO, it will be important to watch how the PDO evolves over the next year. There has clearly been a moderation of the warmth in the SSTAs off the W Coast of N America since last summer, along with the developing warm tongue of SSTAs E of Japan (generally delineated Kuroshio Current) that is often a sign that a -PDO may be on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Do you all believe in the "La Nina Modoki" idea? That's kind of the setup I expect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Do you all believe in the "La Nina Modoki" idea? That's kind of the setup I expect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a That brings up a pretty interesting set of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 When comparing January zonal wind anomalies between 83,98,10,16. 2016 stands out by itself having a monster WWB in comparison those years having weaker zonal wind anomalies. CPC ohc anomalies are actually going to be higher for January then December. None of the other major nino years show anything close to this. Both 1983 and 1998 show the warm pool already essentially collapsed by now. This one has actually been reinforced near the dateline to 140W. Ohc further West over the WPAC and CPAC is also warmer. Much warmer than 1998 at this time. So this nino might take its time to breakdown because its still got very strong depth to the warm pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I keep wondering if we get a 1959-1960 set up, where we're nominally in a Neutral, leaning La Nina, but some conditions remains heavily titled at brief moments for El Nino like conditions. That was a weird transition away from double El Nino conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If we have a Nina. It's not going to come on as fast nor as strong as 1998-99 or 2010-11. It's pretty wild seeing the cold pool and warm pool weaken in concert. Where as in 1998 the cold pool was massive. CFS is actually showing another massive WWB during the 2nd half of February. Which is when solar insolation starts to pile up heat again on the N side of the Equator compared to what you would call equilibrium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If we have a Nina. It's not going to come on as fast nor as strong as 1998-99 or 2010-11. The problem I have with this is every other ensemble suite consensus + most of the long range models have us at least to negative-neutral by the summer, while the CFSv2 remains the odd man out, even with a restrengthening Nino by next fall. Is it seeing something the others are not? I have a hard time believing that prospect considering its ENSO performance prior to this winter has been questionable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The problem I have with this is every other ensemble suite consensus + most of the long range models have us at least to negative-neutral by the summer, while the CFSv2 remains the odd man out, even with a restrengthening Nino by next fall. Is it seeing something the others are not? I have a hard time believing that prospect considering its ENSO performance prior to this winter has been questionable at best.CFS really shows that? In realty it wouldn't take much for the trades to change and the enso state to flip. I was mostly noting that the subsurface isn't as favorable for a quick transition to Nina versus other strong to super nino years And the current trades + January's + CFS forecast for 2nd half of Feb shows restrengthening of the warm pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Though CPC uses ERSST, OISST for January came in at +2.6° C for January which is higher than October. Maybe enough to bump NDJ ONI to +2.4°C on ERSST for the highest ONI on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The problem I have with this is every other ensemble suite consensus + most of the long range models have us at least to negative-neutral by the summer, while the CFSv2 remains the odd man out, even with a restrengthening Nino by next fall. Is it seeing something the others are not? I have a hard time believing that prospect considering its ENSO performance prior to this winter has been questionable at best. CFSV2?..Nino?..where?..it's Nina or neutral..blue ones are the latest and they all point to Nina http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CFSV2?..Nino?..where?..it's Nina or neutral..blue ones are the latest and they all point to Nina http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif Look at E2 and E3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 ONI NDJ came in at 2.3 using ERSST V.4. Using V.3...it beat NDJ in 1997-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A decent WWB is going to take place around the dateline This will help reinforce enso 4 and enso 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks like El Niño is weakening, but may not weaken the shear due to warm water sw of the Baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 Based on the subsurface upwelling kelvin wave we may see an rather dramatic drop in enso 3 in the next month or 2 possibly making the CFSv2 unrealistic and siding more with the euro as Mike Ventrice has mentioned on his twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 ONI value for Nino 3.4 came in at 2.2 on ERSST V4 NOAA had an increase in the PDO value too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What are the chances of a 2010-2011 type of Winter? Wasn't that a La Nina following the moderate/strong El Nino of 2009-2010? Was a pretty snowy winter in the southern mid-atlantic, mostly in December, but there was also gratuitous blocking which is always the wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 SOI has turned positive the last several days. The transition has been right around now after most big el ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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