weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well with the winter season beginning to wind down it is time to start looking ahead towards the spring and summer months and in particular the upcoming severe weather season. After a fairly lackluster 2015 severe weather season 2016 potentially holds much more promise. With long-range computer forecast guidance vastly weakening the Nino towards the spring, perhaps even quickly heading towards Nina territory, past occurrences (while the sample size is quite small) have led to active years from the central plains all the way to here in New England. Within this thread we will countdown to the beginning of New England severe season and prepare for whatever the season may have to offer. The countdown begins at 109 days!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well with the winter season beginning to wind down it is time to start looking ahead towards the spring and summer months and in particular the upcoming severe weather season. Winter just started, and Steve said it will last into June this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Winter just started, and Steve said it will last into June this year. We've had more convective days than snow days thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Does this thread start earlier and earlier each year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Does this thread start earlier and earlier each year? This is one of the later start threads I believe. I remember doing it a few times when we were sill 130+ days out. Recently though I think I started one that may have been done with a little less than 100 days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm excited for it. I love convection season at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm excited for it. I love convection season at work. maybe if we get a tornado this year and I'm chasing it I can get video and you can stream it live on air...see if anyone else can match that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm excited for it. I love convection season at work. So you mean a day like today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 I always used to have trouble getting the number of days correct but this year I found a website that does countdowns so finally my number of days will be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 down to 100 days to go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 94 days!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 maybe if we get a tornado this year and I'm chasing it I can get video and you can stream it live on air...see if anyone else can match that As long as its better than Kevin's aka Damage in Tolland's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wiz, I posted a 1907 article on an alleged tornado in the SNE group on Facebook, and you didn't even acknowledge it. May your future severe seasons be the dullest of doldrums for all eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wiz, I posted a 1907 article on an alleged tornado in the SNE group on Facebook, and you didn't even acknowledge it. May your future severe seasons be spent in sne as well. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ouch. I chuckled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wiz, I posted a 1907 article on an alleged tornado in the SNE group on Facebook, and you didn't even acknowledge it. May your future severe seasons be the dullest of doldrums for all eternity. LOL when was this? I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 i always thought this thread should be titled, "...June 1st" ..but tjm - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 LOL when was this? I missed it. Just a couple weeks ago, I think it's still the most recent post in the Amwx SNE group. It's a headline and short article describing damages in the Salem evening news. The storm was dated July 26, 1907 at around 4PM, and the article was printed the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Just a couple weeks ago, I think it's still the most recent post in the Amwx SNE group. It's a headline and short article describing damages in the Salem evening news. The storm was dated July 26, 1907 at around 4PM, and the article was printed the next day. Ahh that was probably during the week when I was pretty sick and would go to bed right after work. I'll check it out later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 i always thought this thread should be titled, "...June 1st" ..but tjm - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ahh that was probably during the week when I was pretty sick and would go to bed right after work. I'll check it out later this evening Nice, you'll probably find it fairly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Only 89 days...it's insane how quickly its coming. I mean after today only 2 FULL months to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Can't wait for June first I saw somewhere that we only had two seasons where a tropical storm or hurricane hasn't hit the east coast after a strong elnino that's incredible if true and will be chasing if we have a threat i always thought this thread should be titled, "...June 1st" ..but tjm - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 80 days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 70 days away and a few hours from bring 69 days away!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I am so f***ing amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 I am so f***ing amped. March is next week and then we just have one full month to go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 Only 58 days to go and only one more full month to get through!!!! We're almost there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Currently reading up on the relatively new method for forecasting tornado environments weeks in advance. I'm pretty sure the journal article is behind a paywall currently at AMS, but you can get tidbits from http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-college-of-dupage-prof-may-have-found-way-to-forecast-tornadoes-2-3-weeks-in-advance-20160304-story.html and http://weather.cod.edu/~vgensini/ertaf/ Vic is a smart guy doing some great work it seems. He was in the running at DVN when they hired me, and I'm not sure how the NWS let him slip away. Checking his verification from last years experiment, it's quite promising. Hit 10 of 15 periods for week 3 forecasts, and didn't bust any (meaning his "wrong" forecasts just fell within 50% of normal error). There we no above average forecasts with below average tornadoes, and vice versa. As if chaser convergence wasn't bad enough, image if they could have 3 weeks lead time to plan their vacations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 OT, but for those with GRA2 the new update has added a feature to monitor Tornado Probability and Tornado Intensity Estimation using Thompson's research. Allows you to move mouse across a developing or developed circulation and see (within pop-up box) probabilities of EF1>, EF2, EF3 or EF4 occurrence based on Thompson's research of VROT; shows max vrot as you move through circulation, along with max in and out velocities, circulation diameter and dV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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