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Jan 12-13th Storm Observation Thread


dryslot

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These types of squalls have been known to create havoc along I-80.

 

Been there, twice, mainly between Clearfield and Clarion, or something like 40-120 miles east of the OH border.  1st time, eastbound in a little 2WD pickup with no weight in the back was dicey.  2nd time westbound in the Forester was relatively low-tension.

 

1st flakes in AUG about 15 minutes ago, dusting on the sidewalks.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF TORONTO IS MOVING EAST. A BROAD AREA OF
PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN ONTARIO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OVER GREATER NEW YORK CITY/NEW
JERSEY.

CLOUDS ARE THICKENING OVER NEW ENGLAND...A TREND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW WAS REPORTED AT 2 PM OVER
EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS
TRENDING EAST. THE TREND WOULD BRING PRECIP TO THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AROUND 4 PM...WORCESTER HILLS 5-6 PM...BOSTON-PROVIDENCE
6-7 PM.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE WHILE A SOUTH FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS
WARM ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES COOLING DURING THE
PRECIPITATION AND AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERESTING INSTABILITY
VALUES...TOTALS IN THE 50S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND
8C/KM. THIS PASSES ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS 22-02Z AND EAST
SECTIONS 00Z-06Z. THIS MAY AID IN DEEPER MIXING THAT MAY BRING
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...CAUSING BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS
AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

THE RAIN/SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
REDEVELOPED LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND DRAW GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. THE GFS SHOWS 40-45 KNOTS/45-50 MPH...THE NAM SHOWS
AROUND 40 KT/45 MPH...THE ECMWF SHOWS 35-40 KNOTS. CAPE
COD/ISLANDS AND THE HIGHER HILLS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES. TIMING FOR
THE START OF THE WINDS WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1 AM AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR
30. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW MINS IN THE 20S. WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...NOTING IT COULD END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER.

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