Hoth Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 yay, deform rain. Drought cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I mean it's a qpf bomb but rain for us in eastern areas and most of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Jeez, with some seasonable air that would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow piss warm and a great track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Oh well, anything else look interesting on the run? Or our we cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Oh well, anything else look interesting on the run? Or our we cold and dry? nah, follow up wave is way out to sea sunday and its only out to 114hr...but pointless to even look out beyond that on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maybe this can strengthen a lil more by Friday night, and we can have a hurricane in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah win a battle lose the war... surface reflection is deeper but primary does in fact persist longer and trackers up into Canada You can see even at 78-84hours 850 winds are strongly out of the south courtesy of the primary By the time we turn north 90-96hours it's too little too late. And not exactly the coldest air in NNE to tap. 850/925Ts are definitely warmer than 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 winter '15/'16 you suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maybe this can strengthen a lil more by Friday night, and we can have a hurricane in January? Ocean's pretty warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Offshore track and tightly wound circulation. Kind of sickening to the NW interior folks. So many of those in recent times. Some of that would be snow in EMA I think. Column would probably cool within the heavier banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I hope the primary goes up to Manitowac County Wisconsin since it wants to hang on so long and just crap mid level warmth on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Having a hard time believing we wouldn't flip in the interior with a bombing out 971 near the BM. Color me skeptical, even with the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Foxboro soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Occluded 940s lows in the north Atlantic often don't produce much precipitation. QPF generating mechanisms are correlated to rate of deepening of a cyclone not absolute pressure. Much better to have a 1000mb low rapidly deepen to 990mb at your latitude than have a steady state 966mb crawl past you (at least in most cases minus mesoscale effects). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ya this is toast! Maybe we get another shot at something in 8-10 days, that next 10 day threat should be showing up any day now. In all seriousness, there should be some more chances going forward in this great pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Too much interaction with the PV lobe this run...you want to limit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Going to be a wintry week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Are we still going into the great pattern that was modeled lol. Or is that muted now as well ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's amazing we're talking precip issues with that GFS track/intensity this time of year. I know we're lacking the Quebec high but something tells me this is going to trend cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 OT: anyone know whatever happened to SnowNH ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 piss poor run barely any snow, maybe some 20mph gusts.. awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's amazing we're talking precip issues with that GFS track/intensity this time of year. I know we're lacking the Quebec high but something tells me this is going to trend cooler. We have a pretty strong primary up into Detroit...that's one way to ruin the party despite a coastal that develops. In New England, we can get away with primaries pretty far north if we have a good high but we don't this time. So we're trying to thread a needle with the primary losing dominance quickly, but on this run the PV lobe stays too involved with the PJ shortwave and we let the WCB crank too long on the primary....we still almost pull it off in the interior though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Interior SNE still in the game for sure. Just looking less likely I84 and S in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ray was hoping we went back to the big storm idea...we sure did! Just nobody figured it would be a driving rain bomb lmao!! Nobody saw that coming a couple days back when we thought we were going to have light snow for 48 hours that added up to 4 inches. All of a sudden that doesn't look half bad. Wow what a turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Banned I think OT: anyone know whatever happened to SnowNH ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gfs precip maps have a quarter to half inch for us hard to believe but possible Having a hard time believing we wouldn't flip in the interior with a bombing out 971 near the BM. Color me skeptical, even with the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Banned I think I know... but some posts make you wonder Soundings I posted above for KBOS, at 3.5d that is alot of warmth 850-950mb to scour out / cool with heavy rates. Same at KORH. I don't have the 90hr soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Weather really could be a factor in this game... 0z CMC 970mb tracks over southeast MA, increasing the risk of messed up football pressure readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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