40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Still want to see how accurate guidance has been with the clipper to our NE as it helps setup 50 50 and how that in turns affects the confluence. Just puzzled how we've trended way better for 3 days and pretty much got it to where sne would normally get a nice crushing, but it's still too warm. Certainly learning that a block, 50 50, and confluence won't do it all without a nice high oozing down from quebec. Scott said we had some cold coming from Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Scott said we had some cold coming from Maine. Now that I'm done waving the weaker primary and earlier xfer lol...I'll focus on the fresh cold air from Maine now at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Scott said we had some cold coming from Maine. How's it being delivered? Truck? Train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Scott said we had some cold coming from Maine. The GFS showed it, but not until the end. What matters more is now 925-850 act. However, if the GFS happened, I find it hard that it would be mostly rain for you. I suppose 97-98 was the winter of deformation rain, but it doesn't happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here's to the COLD in Maine to try and save this!! Cuz I agree with all of you, this is of the strength and track as modeled currently, where we should be getting zonked by this beotch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I think it's gonna be a bomber. 6-8 inches for BOS because of low ratios to start. Interior sections of Mass/NH/Maine with local accumulations of 12-18". Calling it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 How's it being delivered? Truck? Train? Nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Elevation could play a significant role in this area of northern Ct with such marginal profiles. Lets get this thing to continue to tick colder with a earlier transfer/stronger secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Would be nice to see secondary really take over. Even the euro was close to a paste job it seemed in eastern areas. That's a great position for mid level magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The 0z NAM looks a little worse for Sat's storm. The primary is considerably further north than 18z at the end of its run and the overall trof structure looks unfavorable for coastal transfer. The NAM isn't particularly useful at this range for its specific depiction, but sometimes it trends in sync with the rest of the midrange guidance. Its previous run looked roughly similar to consensus but this is a bit of a departure. I hope it's not a harbinger of a guidance shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I wouldn't trust the NAM as some have said previously that it will have the right solution at this time frame. I would argue for more of a secondary take over as energy phases between the northern stream and southern stream system, NAM doesn't phase the two like other models have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z NAM has a much stronger primary than previously, with a stronger lobe of northern stream energy and a later phasing storm system all together which favors a mere missing coastal storm with rain. Right now I would just sit back and wait until the 00z Thursday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Our coastal storm energy is over the Baja of CA, and our northern stream (primary low pressure center is over the eastern Pacific) just west of CA. We need these systems to come ashore into a better RAOB network region before the models are in phase with the phasing and timing of shortwaves. These systems are so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 My Wunderground app is spitting out 1-3" Friday night, 3-5" Saturday I could see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 nothing jumps out at me so far but I'm doing my best to guide this thing to a region wide plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 nothing jumps out at me so far but I'm doing my best to guide this thing to a region wide plow.I think it's taken a step back from 18Z (so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 looks a tick warmer on the onset at 66hr. lets set what that leads to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Man what a track. It goes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gets down to 969mb at hr 93 looks kind of warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Man what a track. It goes to town. Is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Bombs like crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Track is perfect need to cool it down though Man what a track. It goes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow Very very good track for eastern SNE ~980 at BM, but most critically, primary is diminished significantly Edit: 971 at BM...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Is that good?It's just so warm. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Very warm while passing our latitude over the bm 972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If the thing is bombing like crazy, how the hell doesn't it dynamically cool the column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 yea but too bad its piss warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 yay, deform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Primary gets pretty far up into Ontario to help warm things up. And the low center tracks pretty far east of NJ. Could be hard to get heavier rates back to western half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This is just an abomination!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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