40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wow, para is worse than the euro OP now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 At the strength the GFS has this thing, it should be a blockbuster...low 970's is no joke. But we can't seem to get all the ingredients together to maximize this things strength...dam shame!! Low 970's isn't that impressive with no high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Exactly my point, when I mentioned we can't seem to get all the right ingredients together. Blizzard of 78 was in the low 980's if I recall correctly. But it had the right set up. This weekend as of now, does not look to have what it takes in most places in SNE. Maybe that can change going forward? Or not? Time will tell. But if I can pick up an inch of snow, that would be ok. Beggars can't be choosers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Very early first guess is 3-6" here. Mashed potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Very early first guess is 3-6" here. Mashed potatoes. Yea, unless the trend is done. Even a lot of spots that remain all snow don't get much more than a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wow, para is worse than the euro OP now. I can't see the Para on WxBell cause it's stuck on the 00z run, but what's worse or better about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 How much snow does the para give me? Hold on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yea, unless the trend is done. Even a lot of spots that remain all snow don't get much more than a moderate event. This isn't pixie dust though. Six inches of cement has even more impact than ten inches of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hold on.... Where do you get the Para? You're a WxBell subscriber right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Gives Montpelier about 6" from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Where do you get the Para? You're a WxBell subscriber right? Yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 This isn't pixie dust though. Six inches of cement has even more impact than ten inches of fluff. Yea, if we get 6".....tonight is crucial, I think......I'm afraid that the trend is going to cease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 They are pretty much the same for most of VT, but the para is MUCH better in the n half of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I have to agree with you on the trend...think this is about as good as it's going to look for most. Those that get lucky in the weekend event will at least have some solid covering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At the strength the GFS has this thing, it should be a blockbuster...low 970's is no joke. But we can't seem to get all the ingredients together to maximize this things strength...dam shame!! 970s secondary as an extension of 990 primary... the gradient is key, and so far the relative depth of our secondary is not enough to pull down colder air from NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ya, that Bastard primary needs to be weaker and die quicker...die you no good SOB!! Messing everything up for lots of us dammit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 I have to agree with you on the trend...think this is about as good as it's going to look for most. Those that get lucky in the weekend event will at least have some solid covering! I'm not calling for that, before people try to shove words down my throat in hindsight. But I am concerned, as this trend is now 48 hours old, yet we are still left with relatively meager solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We've been talking about this scenario since Sunday as the blockbuster Miller A solutions faded. I'm wary of this system... it seems to keep squirming it's way to mediocrity. Blockbuster Miller AB phase fell apart with too many shortwaves to coordinate. The lead northern stream shortwave has trended dominant so we've been looking for an unimpeded Miller B, but then that Manitoba ULL popped up and a persistent primary low cooked the BL... there's still definitely potential, but now also watch out for the possibility that this becomes an open wave and slides out east. Euro also now has the vortmax overshoot farther out to sea, and an additional surface low forming much further east... ecmwf_z500_vort_noram_27.jpg GFS hinted at this as well today and with those earlier more strung out solutions... Interested to see how this plays out on guidance tonight. Euro vortmax overshooting far East... at surface depicts a double-barrel low. Sometimes that depiction is a model transition to a farther ots solution. There were a few ensemble members hanging out at 38N/65W to support that too. In this relatively progressive regime, I wouldn't be surprised. But this system has evolved so many times, we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yea.0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ray relax lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 0z ? The fact that the EPS mean had an aggregate of under 6" of snow anywhere south of Dendrite through Tuesday is sobering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm not calling for that, before people try to shove words down my throat in hindsight. But I am concerned, as this trend is now 48 hours old, yet we are still left with relatively meager solutions. Might be an elevation event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ray relax lol I'm fine. I just expected to see guidance look a little better when I arrived home. Hopefully 00z looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Might be an elevation event Honestly, if it is, then I think it would be a north of pike elevation deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 ? The fact that the EPS mean had an aggregate of under 6" of snow anywhere south of Dendrite through Tuesday is sobering. 0z Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Honestly, if it is, then I think it would be a north of pike elevation deal. It would collapse SE. At any rate..it's not done trending colder. Each run continues as it sniffs the block and weakens the primary = quicker transfer and moves ENE rather than NNE. That's the key right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 It would collapse SE. At any rate..it's not done trending colder. Each run continues as it sniffs the block and weakens the primary = quicker transfer and moves ENE rather than NNE. That's the key right there Yes. Agreed......I was just alarmed that we aren't dealing with a larger event yet....I think the 18z GFS dropped like 3-4" here, and its the most aggressive. 8" by the end of the run. Should be interesting. Nap time....between this threat and work, I'm cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm not calling for that, before people try to shove words down my throat in hindsight. But I am concerned, as this trend is now 48 hours old, yet we are still left with relatively meager solutions. Yea that's my thought. Been working so hard past three days lol to trend this into a more favorable spot yet the solutions still just offer a marginal output. Like I don't know how much better this can get now. The primary has trended weaker and gives way to secondary faster, the secondary is stronger and more tucky tucKY off the nj coast, but the solutions just don't quite get there. Marginal airmass is now dampening my once bright outlook. Still time for some ticks here and there but I suspect a north of 84 event, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I think you're right Runnaway...this one ain't ours I fear. Enjoy CNE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Still want to see how accurate guidance has been with the clipper to our NE as it helps setup 50 50 and how that in turns affects the confluence. Just puzzled how we've trended way better for 3 days and pretty much got it to where sne would normally get a nice crushing, but it's still too warm. Certainly learning that a block, 50 50, and confluence won't do it all without a nice high oozing down from quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.