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Pats/Chiefs Miller B-elichick

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I had a decent amont more of liquid in my 2011 deformation bands than QPF...but you and Scoot are right about the ratios. I feel like you and I discussed this topic before one day. Maybe it's just deja vu.

It would be interesting to study more in-depth. I'm just anecdotally using our more recent deform band "positive bust" (which for me is Nov 2014) in that we had very high ratios for a synoptic system and it made up for the lack of QPF. I think I had the same snow as you with like a third of the liquid.

Something to possibly discuss more in-depth with examples outside of a storm thread.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

It would be interesting to study more in-depth. I'm just anecdotally using our more recent deform band "positive bust" (which for me is Nov 2014) in that we had very high ratios for a synoptic system and it made up for the lack of QPF. I think I had the same snow as you with like a third of the liquid.

Something to possibly discuss more in-depth with examples outside of a storm thread.

 

I find it a bit odd that we measure snowfall in inches anyway because 1/3 the QPF and 3x the ratios isn't really "the same snow". Don't Alaskans have like 50 words just for snow?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks dude, and I do think you are right that where those bands set up there is enhanced QPF that the models under-estimate. I just went back to look at the storm referenced above and we were progged around a third of an inch, yet realized 0.4-0.5". So the banding definitely helped but the biggest difference is the ratios under those bands, as without the ratios it's an increase of 3" to 5"....as opposed to 3" to 11" lol.

And I fully know and love being a weenie and a QPF queen...and not just because I like looking at the pretty colors of a QPF map, but because I assume the models are consistent throughout the layers. If it's got big QPF it's got big lift, and likewise if you see big UVVs values, the model prints out big QPF.

I'll definitely heed the information of under-doing QPF in banding, but also that in a lot of our snowstorms it's the banding that drives ratios. Even the October 2011 event, Blizz got a foot (right?) of absolute mashed potatoes, while SkiMRG got over 30" of relative fluff in that deform band. Their actual QPF was probably very similar, just that mid-level band caused the snow growth to go to town.

However, QPF queen or not, when looking back on old snowstorms and maps of past events, the event is remembered by the inches of snow that fell not the liquid equivalent. Same with the end of a snow season, it's the total snowfall not QPF that gets measured. So you look at an old storm and see a stripe of jackpot in the interior, what isn't necessarily shown is that the "lesser snow amounts" further SE were likely the larger impact due to water content.

I could talk snow for hours...getting off topic anyway. Haha, thanks for the conversation.

Yeah when we see the QPF output and then look at mid level low placement, it's easy for us to be bullish for snow in those areas favored in the best side of frontogenesis. It does matter how the temp profile is. If it's a bitter airmass, H7 at -24 is not gonna deliver fluffy dendrites with good lift. You need to look lower.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

From Albany's AFD.  Keepin a bit of hope alive.....but not much.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EST...SOME CONCERNING THOUGHTS WITH THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE
DEEPENING A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...DOWN
TO 994 MBS. BEST THREE-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS TRACK IT NORTHEAST
OFF THE COAST. THIS STORM MIGHT END UP BEING THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE
AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW TO WEST OVER MICHIGAN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES SINCE
THEY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO OR BELOW OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED LOWS.
LOWERED THEM SEVERAL DEGREES WHICH NOW HAS LOWS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN AND WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY.

WITH THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES MORE ISSUES WITH PTYPES COME INTO PLAY.
OUR CURRENT 00Z ALY RAOB DOES INDICATED A BIT OF WARM NOSE SO
THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION . FOR NOW...
KEPT PTYPES MOST AS SLEET AND SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED AND IN SOME CASES...IS
MENTIONED AS A CHANCE.

INCREASE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE...BUT NOT MUCH.
GENERALLY STILL LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...(MIXED WITH SLEET) AND 1-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS STILL MEANS NO
ADVISORIES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. IF THE COLDER TRENDS CONTINUE
WE MIGHT HAVE TO ISSUE THEM.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST PLACES BY SUNRISE.

AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN SLEET
AND SNOW SOUTH IN THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR A SNOW SLEET
MIX ALBANY NORTHWARD AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE STILL EXPECT
A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN TO ALBANY...BUT FURTHER
NORTH...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SLEET AND SNOW COULD
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER...POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS NEED TO RESOLVE. WE APOLOGIZE BUT THIS REMAINS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

And by the way, think of theta-e as a nice combo of heat and moisture. The higher the value, the more warmth and moisture you have in a system. Note this comprises of warmth and moisture. You can achieve a certain value by warm temps and lower moisture, or higher moisture with slightly lower temps. So, it's a combination of two variables in a sense. I'm not getting into logistics of it because it's a bit complicated.

 

It's why DEN can get such good thunderstorms despite what might be seen as COC conditions.

 

DEN can have the same dewpoint as DDC, and despite DDC being 15 degrees warmer theta-e would be very similar because of the pressure difference between the two locations.

 

That's why you should really chase the theta-e gradients not the dewpoint gradients. And there is your storm chase tangent for the night.

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Still a lot of 30 - 34F readings in that area so it might just be isolated pockets that glaze. I'm ready for cold drizzle, NAM shifting E kind of cooks this area, even in the higher elevations. Just doesn't look like precip will crank enough out here to flip.

925 temps are dropping now at the Mass border per Meso analysis. 850 are warm to SNH. Best fronto appears on track with Euro model
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