dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm still 1-2"? http://www.weather.gov/images/gyx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png That map is from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tomorrow morning's radar presentation as the HRRR has it....naturally the caveats apply for HRRR at 18 hours out. hrrrx_ref_neng_20.png i just i dunno - experience certainly isn't infallible. but i just get the feeling that's too warm. (i don't know what the usual caveat emptors are with the hrrr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That map is from this morning when's the next update. PF's map looks like a lot of taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What is the potential upside for anyone in SNE? 4-6" max? I still think a messy rainstorm Yeah if everything went right I could see a 6" spot...maybe even an 8" spot....but we're talking the extreme scenario of everything working out...a very quick flip to heavy wet snow and 1-2" per hour rates for several hours in the morning. I agree that a cold rainstorm with perhaps a bit of ZR to start in the interior and a few flakes to end it is the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 when's the next update. PF's map looks like a lot of taint. I would say by 4 or sooner, Don't read to much into that, It's the HRRR at the end of its range, Not very skilled out this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 i just i dunno - experience certainly isn't infallible. but i just get the feeling that's too warm. (i don't know what the usual caveat emptors are with the hrrr) Its at the end of its range.... sort of like using the NAM beyond 48 hours (or ever). But figured I'd pass it along as its pretty easy to see what its showing in that radar prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What about 925 temps and what does negatively differential mean? it means the top minus the sfc is a negative number - which means that the temperature is falling with altitude between the sfc and (in this case) the 800 mb level. as for the 925 ...that level is cooler than the sfc while being > than 800, so there is no layering there that is warm relative to above and below. taking all that into consideration; if a strong UVV max moves over while it is precipitating, that IS going to drill colder profiles into the lower levels. in this case, it is < than 0C at 800 and barely warmer than 0C at 925 ... sorry, that's parachuting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would say by 4 or sooner, Don't read to much into that, It's the HRRR at the end of its range, Not very skilled out this far Yeah pretty much every guidance you post will vary right on that fine line between wet and white. Basically if the overall feeling is it busts colder than most guidance you look at right now will not match that. I think most guidance is fairly similar...its just whether or not models are a tick too warm. There are a lot of folks sitting at -1C to +2C across the center third of New England. Never going to truly hash those details out until its actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 it means the top minus the sfc is a negative number - which means that the temperature is falling with altitude between the sfc and (in this case) the 800 mb level. as for the 925 ...that level is cooler than the sfc while being > than 800, so there is no layering there that is warm relative to above and below. taking all that into consideration; if a strong UVV max moves over while it is precipitating, that IS going to drill colder profiles into the lower levels. in this case, it is < than 0C at 800 and barely warmer than 0C at 925 ... sorry, that's parachuting Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 it means the top minus the sfc is a negative number - which means that the temperature is falling with altitude between the sfc and (in this case) the 800 mb level. as for the 925 ...that level is cooler than the sfc while being > than 800, so there is no layering there that is warm relative to above and below. taking all that into consideration; if a strong UVV max moves over while it is precipitating, that IS going to drill colder profiles into the lower levels. in this case, it is < than 0C at 800 and barely warmer than 0C at 925 ... sorry, that's parachuting I thought the soundings were a bit inverted tomorrow with the warmest level actually looking around 900mb above the CAD as that puke airmass from the primary moves in a little off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM cools rapidly as the coastal bombs out faster as it sits southwest of ACK. 850mb temps cool to below 0C just west of the 850mb low so the interior sees rain changeover to heavy snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Again the lower layers are warmer than at 850mb so even if 850mb supports paste, the lower layers support rain until the heaviest precip moves into the region as the streams phase on the 18z NAM at 15/18 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I thought the soundings were a bit inverted tomorrow with the warmest level actually looking around 900mb above the CAD as that puke airmass from the primary moves in a little off the deck. there could be at 900 but that's too thin to compensate for a cold type cloud avalanche just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What a paste bomb on the 18z Nam.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah if everything went right I could see a 6" spot...maybe even an 8" spot....but we're talking the extreme scenario of everything working out...a very quick flip to heavy wet snow and 1-2" per hour rates for several hours in the morning. I agree that a cold rainstorm with perhaps a bit of ZR to start in the interior and a few flakes to end it is the most likely outcome. It seems to me that the cold drain will be most significant through North Central MA rather than western areas. I'd be more bullish on Hubby north rather than western areas. The high terrain out west could do well, but with only meh elevation at the Pit I'm less enthusiastic for here than similar elevations in central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Again the lower layers are warmer than at 850mb so even if 850mb supports paste, the lower layers support rain until the heaviest precip moves into the region as the streams phase on the 18z NAM at 15/18 hours out This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What about it Mike, still too warm for me, but interior could see some snows especially northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Plus the NAM generates 90 knot 850mb winds south of Cape Cod in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ZFP from BOX: his Afternoon Partly sunny and not as cool. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Tonight A chance of freezing rain and snow in the evening... Then snow and freezing rain after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Ice accumulation around a trace. Not as cool. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Saturday Snow and rain in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Sunday Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Night And Martin Luther King Jr Day Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Cold. Lows 15 to 20. Highs in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What about it Mike, still too warm for me, but interior could see some snows especially northwest I was agreeing with your post on the lower level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z NAM tears a hole in the atmosphere...might see a mushroom cloud over Block Island. Now we just need to find about 1-2C of cooling in the 900mb layer and most of E MA would get a dynamic paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Nam is a bomb Will look at that 850mb jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We sneaux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Fisher...Sadly I'd be happy with his coating -an inch if it verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EPS mean still a bit wetter than the op for the interior...probably some NAM-like hits in there. Safely a snow profile on the NAM for the Lakes Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Would NAM be a wind bomb for Cape Cod and Islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GYX went Advisory for here, Still seems like some uncertainty MEZ020-161030-ANDROSCOGGIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON...AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS326 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM ESTSATURDAY....TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..SATURDAY...SNOW OR SLEET. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SLEET INTHE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOWACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHTAND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Advisories up for all of Interior Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This should comfort Lava Rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wow so close. The lift is tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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