ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 925tw_f030_bg_US.png Yeah it follows the CCB...you can extrapolate that it would probably be over N/central and maybe even NE/E MA at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 PF, I would think that because it was swinging it east as of 18z, it went down into the area. One can infer that. Hence why I said nrn ORH into NE MA may still need to watch it, should the dynamics work out. If it's lighter, more banded stuff..forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'll take my 6-8" and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah looks like 4" for LCI and 6" for Jeff. Congrats Eastport, I'm in the 7" shade, Don't steal my snow................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Precip amounts and snowfall in SNE looked more impressive at 00z ,at least on weatherbell maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 PF, I would think that because it was swinging it east as of 18z, it went down into the area. One can infer that. Hence why I said nrn ORH into NE MA may still need to watch it, should the dynamics work out. If it's lighter, more banded stuff..forget it. Ahh yeah I'm just looking at the higher res WxBell maps and it didn't give quite that appeal as no one was below 0C at 925mb except Pittsfield in Mass. 925 temps at 12z, 18z: ORH +2, +1 FIT +3, +1 BOS +4, +2 BDL +1, +2 You get the idea...but I think it's just a graphics thing and timing differences. Those could wash out to isothermal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Precip amounts and snowfall in SNE looked more impressive at 00z ,at least on weatherbell maps.Oh it's definitely less than 00z...no question. That had 2-3" down to the Pike which is now in SNH.And toggling the two runs the 00z was definitely a shade colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 H7 is a classic widespread SNE pounding if it were cold enough.I still think NRN ORH to NE MA need to keep an eye out. So based on this, is this area good for mostly snow? Or are we on the edge? Edit: nevermind saw Will's post below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ahh yeah I'm just looking at the higher res WxBell maps and it didn't give quite that appeal as no one was below 0C at 925mb except Pittsfield in Mass. 925 temps at 12z, 18z: ORH +2, +1 FIT +3, +1 BOS +4, +2 BDL +1, +2 You get the idea...but I think it's just a graphics thing and timing differences. Those could wash out to isothermal too. Those marginal ones near +1 or +2 could definitely get washed out in a CCB....that said, I'm still skeptical because of that ridiculous primary to the west...it is so overbearing on the flow in both the boundary layer and the mid-levels. It is preventing the typical advection we see in those processes. The Euro (and NAM also) try to overcome it and really crank things, but it would have to be almost perfect. Up in Maine, where they are further removed from the primary influence, it is much easier. They'll probably do pretty well away from the southern coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Oh it's definitely less than 00z...no question. That had 2-3" down to the Pike which is now in SNH. And toggling the two runs the 00z was definitely a shade colder. 00z was a bit warmer in E and C MA at 850...at least on my maps. Couldn't care less about the snow algorithms as they are almost useless. Regardless, the differences are small enough that they are not very useful for forecasting. It will mostly end up a moot point in SNE anyway. Southern NH has a more legit chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Those marginal ones near +1 or +2 could definitely get washed out in a CCB....that said, I'm still skeptical because of that ridiculous primary to the west...it is so overbearing on the flow in both the boundary layer and the mid-levels. It is preventing the typical advection we see in those processes. The Euro (and NAM also) try to overcome it and really crank things, but it would have to be almost perfect. Up in Maine, where they are further removed from the primary influence, it is much easier. They'll probably do pretty well away from the southern coast. Summit of WaWa could be the place to be. Or 3,000ft on Monadnock is going to get a pasting. Agreed on Dendrite northeast. Best QPF is east and best cold is north but Jeff seems to be in the best overlap of moisture and just being cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 seems the point was missed and/or miss-interpreted. firstly, I said "loosely" reminds me... i also concluded that it could be a wet version of that... you follow up with post that talk about how 1997 was colder - duh, that was said. not only that, the radiational cooling the night before back then was also a factor that could be in play if we get some of that this evening - it's not a analog of 1997 - but there are some variables the bear some resemblance in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 seems the point was missed and/or miss-interpreted. firstly, I said "loosely" reminds me... i also concluded that it could be a wet version of that... you follow up with post that talk about how 1997 was colder - duh, that was said. not only that, the radiational cooling the night before back then was also a factor that could be in play if we get some of that this evening - it's not a analog of 1997 - but there are some variables the bear some resemblance in my mind. 1997 had a nice little high just NE of Maine...it is too bad we don't have that this time as it would turn the ageostrophic flow more favorable. That is what is killing us in the lower levels on this current event. The two shortwaves as they pass south of us, look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 00z was a bit warmer in E and C MA at 850...at least on my maps. Couldn't care less about the snow algorithms as they are almost useless. Regardless, the differences are small enough that they are not very useful for forecasting. It will mostly end up a moot point in SNE anyway. Southern NH has a more legit chance at something. True, we are talking about differences of 1-2C. Very well could just be graphics and the differences between vendors. I know you don't care about the snow algorithms but they do give an idea of the trend as its using the same algorithm between runs. The EURO zone is said to be pretty good, I know Ryan said something about an upgrade to the ECM snow output. But this case definitely has high stakes so even a half degree Celcius can could cause the model to give inches of paste vs nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Very nice consistency on the euro as other models have been struggling to find their spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah the primary really fooks us. The SW flow ahead of it today and tonight contaminate. As the srfc to 850 low starts to develop, it basically takes garbage air and recycles it down to the SW. We never really get that classic tap of colder air to the NE until it's too late. The main area of colder air stays up in Maine, ahead of the WF pushing through here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What I like though, regardless of the outcome..is the euro temp profile. It's the closet to reality, despite the outcome perhaps not being favorable for many. It shows you exactly the dynamic cooling taking place. That's important to me. NAM to an extent shows it too. When a model shows a real life situation like that, it makes it trustworthy in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 1997 had a nice little high just NE of Maine...it is too bad we don't have that this time as it would turn the ageostrophic flow more favorable. That is what is killing us in the lower levels on this current event. The two shortwaves as they pass south of us, look very similar. Certainly not helping ...no. But, (and keep in mind; I was speaking in deference to the NAM ...always a risk ) ...the critical sigma levels on the FRH grid are very conducive to dynamical forcing (which you and others have mentioned), but more so than normal. I don't see any intervening layers between 700 and 800 mb levels; which is unusual with so much primary back west. Interesting.. anyway, 1997 and this one are similar in one regard: big huge pig IB burst. I almost lean/feel as though this could just be a wetter version of that scenario as a sensible analog, more than a synoptic one? ...if that makes any sense. Could see 'chutes of blue coming down and perhaps thunder? marginality with a large omega riding over top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT National Weather Service Taunton MA440 PM EST Tue Dec 23 1997Here are some snowfall reports received at nws Taunton fromThe storm which began very late last night/early this morning.Thanks to spotters...Other agencies and media outlets for providingReports. All amounts are in inches.This product can also be found on our internet homepage at:Http://www.Nws.NOAA.Gov/er/boxNws Taunton MA (box) 350 PM 3.8 very light snow 32fBoston Logan (bos) 330 PM 5.6Blue hills obsIn Milton MA (bho) 100 PM 7.6Worcester Apt (orh) 115 PM 18.0...Massachusetts......Bristol County...Mansfield 255 PM 4.0Easton 210 PM 3.5Fairhaven 210 PM trace...Essex County...Gloucester 410 PM 8.0Peabody 120 PM 7.8Newburyport 1105 AM 2.0...Franklin County...Shelburne 1045 AM 6.0...Hampden County...Agawam 1215 PM 8.0Westfield 1200 PM 7.0Monson 150 PM 6.5Springfield 1050 AM 5.5...Hampshire County...Amherst 345 PM 16.0North Hatfield 1215 PM 8.5Worthington 910 AM 6.5...Middlesex County...Ayer final 21.0 (8.0 between 1030am-1130am)Westford 300 PM 18.0West Townsend 150 PM 16.5Tyngsboro 220 PM 16.0Hopkinton 400 PM 15.5Acton 125 PM 15.0Chelmsford 1240 PM 15.0 (6.0 between 11am-1230pm)Littleton 1240 PM 15.0Townsend 1210 PM 13.5North Woburn 155 PM 10.7Lexington 300 PM 10.5Dracut 130 PM 10.0Natick 1235 PM 9.5Woburn Ctr. 145 PM 9.0Acton 1120 AM 9.0North Woburn 1240 PM 8.5Waltham 1150 AM 6.0...Norfolk County...Sharon 205 PM 7.3Bellingham 145 PM 10.0Stoughton 130 PM 7.5...Plymouth County...Hanover 430 PM 4.0Pembroke 430 PM 2.0Marshfield 430 PM 0.5Brockton 1215 PM 3.8W. Bridgewater 150 PM 3.5...Suffolk County...Winthrop 225 PM 3.9Revere 1040 AM 3.0Boston 1010 AM 3.0 (downtown - not airport)...Worcester County...Grafton 105 PM 16.5Shrewsbury 135 PM 16.3West boylston 1155 AM 15.4Ashburnham 405 PM 13.5Northbridge 1210 PM 13.0West boylston 1155 AM 15.4Gardner 310 PM 11.0Milford 310 PM 11.0Leicester 1140 AM 10.0Westboro 1140 AM 8.0Fitchburg 1050 AM 6.0Spencer 1045 AM 9.0Milford 1035 AM 8.0...Rhode Island......Kent County...Warwick 255 PM 4.5Coventry 1050 AM 1.5...Providence County...Burrillville 405 PM 13.5Cumberland 330 PM 7.5N. Foster 315 PM 5.9East Providence 300 PM 3.4Providence 1155 AM 1.5 (downtown - not airport)Smithfield 1045 AM 3.5 at sfz arptN. Foster 1005 AM 3.0...New Hampshire......Cheshire County...Jaffrey Apt 235 PM 10.5Rindge 1250 PM 9.5...Hillsborough County...Nashua 400 PM 19.5Amherst 305 PM 17.5Bedford 400 PM 14.0Hollis 1150 AM 10.0...Connecticut......Hartford County...Unionville Final 2.5Newington final 3.0East Granby final 5.0Wethersfield Final 4.5Farmington Final 3.3Avon Final 2.5...Tolland County...Union Final 7.0Vernon Final 2.3Mansfield final 1.3...Windham County...Putnam Final 3.0Babcock Amherst 16" Worthington 6.5" lol at the Shelburne skunking. H7 is a classic widespread SNE pounding if it were cold enough.I still think NRN ORH to NE MA need to keep an eye out. Western areas? 925tw_f030_bg_US.png THat's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 while we are on the subject ... you know what is/was funny about 1997? this current specials out of Taunton is eerily similar to what was said the day before that one, too: "...LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE WILLLIKELY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSSNORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINEDTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL BE LIKELYWITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WINTERWEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think too much emphasis is being placed on temp profiles rather than wind direction. When the low level wind direction shifts, marginal areas will quickly switch to all snow. An adequate source of low level cold is just to the north in Maine. A pre-existing snow pack in NH and Maine should aid in the low level cooling process as well. The south eastern section of NH and to a lesser extent, northeastern MA, down to Boston should watch this one closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think too much emphasis is being placed on temp profiles rather than wind direction. When the low level wind direction shifts, marginal areas will quickly switch to all snow. An adequate source of low level cold is just to the north in Maine. A pre-existing snow pack in NH and Maine should aid in the low level cooling process as well. The south eastern section of NH and to a lesser extent, northeastern MA, down to Boston should watch this one closely. Yes, which is why I think lower levels may be a little cooler than shown...not to mention latent cooling from melting. Still..it's just a bit too toasty aloft until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think too much emphasis is being placed on temp profiles rather than wind direction. When the low level wind direction shifts, marginal areas will quickly switch to all snow. An adequate source of low level cold is just to the north in Maine. A pre-existing snow pack in NH and Maine should aid in the low level cooling process as well. The south eastern section of NH and to a lesser extent, northeastern MA, down to Boston should watch this one closely. Yes, which is why I think lower levels may be a little cooler than shown...not to mention latent cooling from melting. Still..it's just a bit too toasty aloft until the end. Scott do you see a trend here with models cooling ? What's the likelihood that 00z runs come in colder again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am not sure if this will translate on through the night, but I was briefly checking the observed 18z 925mb temps vs the 6 hour forecasts from both the NAM and RAP at 12z and the forecasts were running about 1-2C too warm over SNE. They were underestimating the CAD that was occurring. If we still see this trend by tonight, then I would not be surprised if we tick colder in the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just saw the synoptic freebie Euro for tomorrow morning... 850's 0C is squarely along or just south of the Pike, and the sounding is negatively differential: Either the Euro is wrong, or, NWS is scurrying to throw up warnings come tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just saw the synoptic freebie Euro for tomorrow morning... 850's 0C is squarely along or just south of the Pike, and the sounding is negatively differential: Either the Euro is wrong, or, NWS is scurrying to throw up warnings come tomorrow What about 925 temps and what does negatively differential mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Scott do you see a trend here with models cooling ? What's the likelihood that 00z runs come in colder again ? Will brought up a point we were talking about in-house. And actually it goes to what Jbenedet said too. If that warming in srn NH and srn ME is overdone, that can slide down the coast and aid in lowering temps somewhat.We saw that in 12/29/15 this year in the cold tuck after the snow and sleet. I'm not saying it will drop into the low 20s like that did, but the process is the same. This would be in the srfc-925 layer or so...more like srfc to 950. That can help lower temps and it only takes a 1-2F difference. I know it sounds like grasping for straws, but this is important. You have a perfect mid level look for a dynamic flip to snow, if the lower 2-3K cooperate. I'm nervous models underestimate this in the PSM-MHT-ORH-BVY area. Maybe even BOS briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tomorrow morning's radar presentation as the HRRR has it....naturally the caveats apply for HRRR at 18 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'll take my 6-8" and run I'm still 1-2"? http://www.weather.gov/images/gyx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What is the potential upside for anyone in SNE? 4-6" max? I still think a messy rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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