Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Congrats NW CT to ORH north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yes mark Well I wonder if the primary is weakening more quickly and the seondary is taking over and thus we get less warming aloft and at the surface. Again for me the issue is intensity. GFS had less than .5 qpf and it was warm. If the Euro and NAM are right with more intensity then we should get a snowier outcome, perhaps all snow except for drizzle if the precip lightens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Congrats NW CT to ORH north I'm skeptical but would obviously take that out here. Waiting patiently on 12z Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well I wonder if the primary is weakening more quickly and the seondary is taking over and thus we get less warming aloft and at the surface. Again for me the issue is intensity. GFS had less than .5 qpf and it was warm. If the Euro and NAM are right with more intensity then we should get a snowier outcome, perhaps all snow except for drizzle if the precip lightens up. We are all hoping the Euro is right, I would say it probably is, It's been steadfast, If it is, It will prove its superiority once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 RGEM is still real toasty. It also may be because it doesn't seem like it gets a good CCB going like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z RGEM looks better then 0z, At least looking at the snow algorithm for up this way 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Isothermal paste bomb for N ORH county to Berks and S NH. I'm hoping for a 33.1* rain, as opposed to 33.7. Think I can pull it off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah...the CCB sucks on the RGEM. I think it's playing catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 RGEM is still real toasty. It also may be because it doesn't seem like it gets a good CCB going like the Euro. 4km NAM has the same problem...both it and the RGEM have way too much interference in the CCB from the primary low. That's not gonna get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 06 GFS was a little too far southeast with the precip shield down in AL, GA, and TN. We'll see if the 12z corrects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The trends are colder, perhaps just cold enough for some of us. There is a 1020 high at James Bay. Is that enough to keep cold damned in and help the secondary? I will say the secondary looks very very juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS looked slightly colder than 06z...but still not enough for SNE elevations...Maine over to near dendrite though looked decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS makes me want to throw something. The atmosphere getting a new azzhole torn from it over my house and it's a furnace 850 and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm totally prepared. Perhaps a coating/inch on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS makes me want to throw something. The atmosphere getting a new azzhole torn from it over my house and it's a furnace 850 and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS makes me want to throw something. The atmosphere getting a new azzhole torn from it over my house and it's a furnace 850 and below. If that primary was a bit weaker/southwest, this would be like a foot of cement for a lot of our area. Talk about a synoptic turd in the punchbowl...about the only way that setup can fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking at latest map, that's a sharp cutoff. I'm only progged for 1". Looks like the north half of Raymond is 2-3" on the map, south half 1-2". If you're near Rattlesnake Mt, that's right on the line. And this might be an occasion for your elevation to overcome the magma effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The trends are colder, perhaps just cold enough for some of us. There is a 1020 high at James Bay. Is that enough to keep cold damned in and help the secondary? I will say the secondary looks very very juicy. Damned, perhaps, but probably not dammed. At least not down here haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If that primary was a bit weaker/southwest, this would be like a foot of cement for a lot of our area. Talk about a synoptic turd in the punchbowl...about the only way that setup can fail. We'll see what the EC does soon I guess. Hopefully continues from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At least we enjoy a mild day today with the sun peeking out in advance of tomorrow's rain. 31.5/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 @sipprellwx A lot of chatter at the WFO. Potential banding Sat morn, psbl 1-2"/hr snowfalls along high terrain. Quick punch. Await WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 mother nature's fu for the blizzard that eastern areas got last jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 TOR over Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Isothermal flip to snow with crashing heights would not surprise me at all. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t12z/front.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 this loosely reminds me of Dec 23, 1997 ... the vertical sigma is negatively differential on the NAM's FRH grid, both at BOS and ALB on the product, during max omega and intense short duration fall rates. many of you were probably not old enough to recall that, just as many of you were/are ... but that was the famed snow bomb storm that came out of left field for a lot of Mets and clocked interior zones from ORH up to SW Maine with incredible 5 to 8" per hour snow fall rates. The ordeal was over with in just five or so hours ... but it fell to 24" in Pepperell Ma, with numerours 15" totals surrounding...most of which fell in just two to three hours mid event. The snow fell straight down, small to moderate uniform aggregate sizes, with visibility a few feet and that is no embellishment! I know ... I was there. similarly ...but this is not to espouse this as an "analog" we have that same sort of vertical thermal profile, with a powerful IB pulse and associated wall of DPVA running up (potentiall) into an air mass that is colder in the lower thickness intervals than is modeled. That was largely contributory back whence. The night immediately prior to the event featured star light dead calm radiational cooling ..with vestigial high pressure still nosing down. All models for some reason omitted that physicality and assumed a 33 sort of ordeal, with marginal ... they were just too warm given to that. We dawned at 19 F over a large chunk of the area, and then clouds came in and capped that cold, with those colder 800mb being correct, the total vertical therms were thus colder than modeled given to the antecedence ... What was anticipated to be 2-5" in the ORH hills and cat's paws everywhere else, was actually a mid 20s choking thump. This situation may or may not benefit from some rad cooling/conditionals like that .. .but, that aspect of negative temperature differential in the vertical, combined with an intense omega spike ...I'm wondering here We'll see. Could almost be a wet snow version of that one. Edit, I see there's some product notification starting up so that's good imho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking at latest map, that's a sharp cutoff. I'm only progged for 1". Looks like the north half of Raymond is 2-3" on the map, south half 1-2". If you're near Rattlesnake Mt, that's right on the line. And this might be an occasion for your elevation to overcome the magma effects. one can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 this loosely reminds me of Dec 23, 1997 ... the vertical sigma is negatively differential on the NAM's FRH grid, both at BOS and ALB on the product, during max omega and intense short duration fall rates. many of you were probably not old enough to recall that, just as many of you were/are ... but that was the famed snow bomb storm that came out of left field for a lot of Mets and clocked interior zones from ORH up to SW Maine with incredible 5 to 8" per hour snow fall rates. The ordeal was over with in just five or so hours ... but it fell to 24" in Pepperell Ma, with numerours 15" totals surround...most of which fell in just two to three hours mid event. The snow fell straight down, small to moderate uniform aggregate sizes, with visibility a few feet and that is no embellishment! I know ... I was there. similarly ...but this is not to espouse this as an "analog" we have that same sort of vertical thermal profile, with a powerful IB pulse and associated wall of DPVA running up (potentiall) into an air mass that is colder in the lower thickness intervals than is modeled. That was largely contributory back whence. The night immediately prior to the event feature star light dead calm radiational cooling ..with vestigial high pressure still nosing down. All models for some reason omitted that physicality and assumed a 33 sort of ordeal, with marginal ... they were just too warm given to that. We dawned at 19 F over a large chunk of the area, and then clouds came in and capped that cold, with those colder 800mb being correct, the total vertical therms were thus colder than modeled given to the antecedence ... This situation may or may not benefit from some rad cooling/conditionals like that .. .but, that aspect of negative temperature differential in the vertical, combined with an intense omega spike ...I'm wonder here We'll see. low 20s here now with dews in the mid teens. And a lot of juice coming up from the southeast. 6z gfs gave me less than .5qpf and i dont believe that. perhaps the reason it goes above 0 at 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 @sipprellwx A lot of chatter at the WFO. Potential banding Sat morn, psbl 1-2"/hr snowfalls along high terrain. Quick punch. Await WRF Too bad none of us in the BOX CWA live in high terrain. But maybe things will tick cooler so those of us with so-so terrain can eek out a whitening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Are you sure Dec 23 1997 is the right date? I can't find anything on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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