HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This doesn't look like a big icing threat to me. Maybe marginal. You typically want to see cold in that 925-950mb layer to really worry about ice. Otherwise the cold layer is just too thin to do much damage. But certainly can't rule out some marginal accretion. I'm not worried about significant accretion (maybe 0.05"?), but slick roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm not worried about significant accretion (maybe 0.05"?), but slick roads Definitely possible at the onset. Esp if RGEM is right. But it would quickly go to either rain or paste. No big elevated warm tongue in this above a steep inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 LOL at comparing 12z-->00z GFS and Euro. The GFS is having seizures trying to figure out where to put the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 LOL at comparing 12z-->00z GFS and Euro. The GFS is having seizures trying to figure out where to put the low. Convection issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I want to think the Euro is more right then wrong at this point, It had has strong backing from the EPS and has held firm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 LOL at comparing 12z-->00z GFS and Euro. The GFS is having seizures trying to figure out where to put the low. Chuck the nam into that pile as well althought that is par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking at the 12z Nam, it looks to have ticked colder at 925 mb up here from 06z, Not that it means much seeing its the nam but it may be a trend to colder aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I want to think the Euro is more right then wrong at this point, It had has strong backing from the EPS and has held firm So do I. I like to hump the rgem but this is one time i hope it is the one with the wrong idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I flip sometime between 12-15Z from rain to snow on the 12Z NAM. This will be right in the NAM's wheelhouse by 18Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I flip sometime between 12-15Z from rain to snow on the 12Z NAM. This will be right in the NAM's wheelhouse by 18Z tomorrow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What elevation does 925 translate to? I usually think of 850 as 4000', so is 925 at about 2000'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I flip sometime between 12-15Z from rain to snow on the 12Z NAM. This will be right in the NAM's wheelhouse by 18Z tomorrow. is it snow to rain to snow? or just plain rain to snow? With temps in the low 20s and dp in the mid teens it is hard to see us starting as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah, the NAM definitely crashing heights middle of the day tomorrow even for E. Mass. I guess that's similar to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Coming around to yesterdays 4km NAM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 is it snow to rain to snow? or just plain rain to snow? With temps in the low 20s and dp in the mid teens it is hard to see us starting as rain. We'll have WAA all night ahead of the primary. I'd guess we start as some brief -ZL/ZR and then flip to snow at some point. Depending on 2m, maybe there's a brief period of non freezing liquid between the ZR and SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z NAM looks more euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z NAM looks more euro like. I thought the same thing...it kicked the CCB more east like the euro. Colder like the euro too. Looks interesting out by MPM/Hunchie/ORE too now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z NAM looks more euro like. Isothermal paste bomb for N ORH county to Berks and S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Isothermal paste bomb for N ORH county to Berks and S NH. Do you think it can end as a quick thump south of 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Isothermal paste bomb for N ORH county to Berks and S NH. Had that look. I'm still having a tough time with the levels below 850mb furnacing that much. I'm taking the under on that. It still provides issue even if I do that, but if that solution happens with tremendous lift like that? I have a tough time with 1) Models under-estimating the cooling as a result near 850 and 2) the possibly pooling of more lower level Tw temps cstsl ME into SNH getting pulled S and SW a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Had that look. I'm still having a tough time with the levels below 850mb furnacing that much. I'm taking the under on that. I still provides issue even if I do that, but if that solution happens with tremendous lift like that? I have a tough time with 1) Models under-estimating the cooling as a result near 850 and 2) the possibly pooling of more lower level Tw temps cstsl ME into SNH getting pulled S and SW a bit. Yeah very precarious setup...that amount of lift will overcome a lot and if we can really get that CCB going, it will help shunt the BL warming a bit. I guess we'll see, not an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Do you think it can end as a quick thump south of 90? It's possible, I'd like to see a tick colder for that...at least in terms of anything that accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah very precarious setup...that amount of lift will overcome a lot and if we can really get that CCB going, it will help shunt the BL warming a bit. I guess we'll see, not an easy forecast. Not at all. It looks like a late March look. Coldest air at 925-850 near best lift with warmer temps where it stops precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 These are the types of events i'm glad i am not a forecaster at a WFO, Not a clear cut slam dunk system, With some issues to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We can compare to GFS 12z when it comes out, and to other models. GFS 0z run 925 temps 06z Sat +1 KCON -1 KLCI -2 KLEW 09z +2 12z +3 +1 0 15Z +2 +1 1 18Z +3 0 0 21Z +1 +1 -1 GFS 6z 925 temps 06z Sat +1 KCON 0 KLCI -2 KLEW 09z +2 +1 0 12z +3 +2 +1 15z +3 +1 0 18z +2 0 -2 21z 0 0 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Not at all. It looks like a late March look. Coldest air at 925-850 near best lift with warmer temps where it stops precipitating. 900mb temps at 15z tomorrow. You can see how in that band they are coldest...this resolution probably doesn't even capture it that well...I bet the 4km NAM will do a better job. (i.e, I'm a bit skeptical of CEF having a colder 900mb temp than ORH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This does not have the look or feel of a rainstorm to me. Where is the primary? Looks like east Alabama or west GA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This does not have the look or feel of a rainstorm to me. Where is the primary? Looks like east Alabama or west GA now. Its over in the great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Its over in the great lakes Lol. Is that the secondary then in the southeast? it has a lot of juice and looks much better on radar than the primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Lol. Is that the secondary then in the southeast? it has a lot of juice and looks much better on radar than the primary Yes mark, We want that to look a whole lot better.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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