HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 its a dynamic situation,blue bombs away on that runLet's see what 12z brings. It will take time to cool the column throughout. I've heard the "up near Hunchie" many times when it doesn't come to fruition latelySR should be epic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ride that Euro horse to the coast, intense dynamic storm on the Euro 24 hrs out. I would definitely not discount it. Congrats That's what I was thinking during the January blizzard last year when the Euro gave me 1" of QPF only 18-24 hours out. We got 0.2". Lol. Rode the horse and got tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That's what I was thinking during the January blizzard last year when the Euro gave me 1" of QPF only 18-24 hours out. We got 0.2". Lol. Rode the horse and got tossed. Sounds like you got hurt. Like the RGEM did here back in the Feb storm, Went from 12"+ ended with 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I enhanced our temp color curve to accentuate this image, but here's the RGEM at 18z Saturday. rgem.jpeg Not that warm at the surface. Can you overlay Lakes on that map? I'm always using Sebago as a point of ref for my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Uuugh. I wasn't expecting that model war to break out overnight. The euro vs the rgem and the rest basically. I want to believe the euro because it gives my area the most snow out of all the models but damn, i wish it had some support other than its ensembles. It pains me to have to toss it but thats what I'm leaning to. See what today brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Jeff you got no sleep! I'm excited at the possibility. Its an all or nothing I think....if we get heavy precip we dynamically cool to paste. If not, then its just light precip anyhow. I wonder how the 6Z models trended. Here is what I see on the 6Z GFS 925 temps: KCON goes above 0 for 12-15 hours starting near midnight tonight KLCI goes about for up to 12 hours KLEW goes above for up to 3 hours My weather will probably be closest to LCI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking at latest map, that's a sharp cutoff. I'm only progged for 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking at latest map, that's a sharp cutoff. I'm only progged for 1". StormTotalSnowWeb.png The haves and the have-nots. I think the 06RGEM was better than the 00z run, at least for your hood. Maybe I'm making that up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How much qpf is the Euro putting out? I'm hoping my glacier doesn't melt. Since it held out in last weekends warm rains, maybe I'll survive to keep my lawn icy for another week. My point and click from BOX is calling for freezing rain to rain with under .25" precipitation. They really are riding GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That's what I was thinking during the January blizzard last year when the Euro gave me 1" of QPF only 18-24 hours out. We got 0.2". Lol. Rode the horse and got tossed.you have whined about that one miss incessantly,let it go, get back on that horse cowgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Jeff you got no sleep! I'm excited at the possibility. Its an all or nothing I think....if we get heavy precip we dynamically cool to paste. If not, then its just light precip anyhow. I wonder how the 6Z models trended. Here is what I see on the 6Z GFS 925 temps: KCON goes above 0 for 12-15 hours starting near midnight tonight KLCI goes about for up to 12 hours KLEW goes above for up to 3 hours My weather will probably be closest to LCI hes old like us, pee at the right time when snow is near Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 hes old like us, pee at the right time when snow is nearLol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 hes old like us, pee at the right time when snow is near Depends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Marky Mark, Euro and Euro Ens give LCI 6, just letting you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Beware the warm tongue I'm never afraid of a warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Depends?on how much coffee consumption the day before. Do you have a pee fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Jeff you got no sleep! I'm excited at the possibility. Its an all or nothing I think....if we get heavy precip we dynamically cool to paste. If not, then its just light precip anyhow. I wonder how the 6Z models trended. Here is what I see on the 6Z GFS 925 temps: KCON goes above 0 for 12-15 hours starting near midnight tonight KLCI goes about for up to 12 hours KLEW goes above for up to 3 hours My weather will probably be closest to LCI I got some sleep mark, I just ended up waking up and took a look at the Euro around 2:00 am then made a couple postt and went back to bed, Riding the knife edge here at H925, Its not going to take more then a tic or two to overcome that warm layer, Looking at the 06z RGEM, It looked like it cooled from 0z as well as the GFS and Nam and has more snow over this area so that's a plus, We will see how this goes today, But i feel we may be able to overcome the warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 hes old like us, pee at the right time when snow is near Spot on.......lol, Tapatalk pinged me so i had to look to see who it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I got some sleep mark, I just ended up waking up and took a look at the Euro around 2:00 am then made a couple postt and went back to bed, Riding the knife edge here at H925, Its not going to take more then a tic or two to overcome that warm layer, Looking at the 06z RGEM, It looked like it cooled from 0z as well as the GFS and Nam and has more snow over this area so that's a plus, We will see how this goes today, But i feel we may be able to overcome the warm layer Yes I often wake up in the middle of the night because of the baby or a bathroom run and get a quick update on the models. I think you'll do pretty well but today's runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yes I often wake up in the middle of the night because of the baby or a bathroom run and get a quick update on the models. I think you'll do pretty well but today's runs will be interesting. Thanks, We shall see how it goes but i'm optimistic, If not tomorrow, Then maybe Monday when the ULL rolls thru here, Euro was bullish for that but that's for a another thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just looking at the euro. That is a sneaky paste job for part of the storm near the end even near the coast, thanks to dynamics. Gonna have to watch model trends to see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Freeing rain is a bigger concern for my area than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Freeing rain is a bigger concern for my area than snow I was thinking the same thing, but probably won't be that significant here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Freeing rain is a bigger concern for my area than snow This doesn't look like a big icing threat to me. Maybe marginal. You typically want to see cold in that 925-950mb layer to really worry about ice. Otherwise the cold layer is just too thin to do much damage. But certainly can't rule out some marginal accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I got some sleep mark, I just ended uIp waking up and took a look at the Euro around 2:00 am then made a couple postt and went back to bed, Riding the knife edge here at H925, Its not going to take more then a tic or two to overcome that warm layer, Looking at the 06z RGEM, It looked like it cooled from 0z as well as the GFS and Nam and has more snow over this area so that's a plus, We will see how this goes today, But i feel we may be able to overcome the warm layer I'm glad I managed to hold off the pee until 6am because the Euro would've kept me awake. I think this is all about precip rates. If the models trend toward heavier precip then we paste. Later I will look at 925 temp trends on the GFS. Ginxy 6 at LCI would probably be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah I would think either he's sitting underneath a nice deform band dynamically cooling the column for a paste job or its a 33-35 rain for the most part in Hubby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah this is pretty much rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just looking at the euro. That is a sneaky paste job for part of the storm near the end even near the coast, thanks to dynamics. Gonna have to watch model trends to see where it goes. Posted that earlier..Goes right to the water.. But likely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro is close to a n shore pasting looking at it more closely. Big height crash after 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Posted that earlier..Goes right to the water.. But likely wrong Verbatim, it makes perfect sense to me. The question is, will this exact solution as shown happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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