Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 All op runs have been pretty bad. Seems like euro ensembles have been more stable. Are they chillier than the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ok I was referring to track alone. Not temp profiles. Yeah they are definitely pretty close on the synoptics...Euro suite is a bit colder aloft and has more of that inverted trough back into N VT, but they are much closer together than the American models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Aren't we pretty close to be using ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Are they chillier than the op? Didn't look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think the the GFS ate the same bad burrito that the Nam did. Ride the Euro/EPS Rgem combo.Pretty much all that should be done anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Aren't we pretty close to be using ensembles? control run time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah they are definitely pretty close on the synoptics...Euro suite is a bit colder aloft and has more of that inverted trough back into N VT, but they are much closer together than the American models are. this^. Believe me. I hope the euro is more accurate than the Rgem this time. The euro is mostly snow here while the Rgem is an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS is well NW and warm. Man, these American models have been wildly inconsistent...Euro has definitely been steadier. Probably will hug that model...esp considering RGEM is fairly close to it. warm enough to bring rain to Dendrite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Didn't look. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 control run time? Operational/hi-res? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Operational/hi-res? I kid, Hi res inside 36 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Just so you guys know, in case you don't already, the Rgem has a higher resolution model on the meteo site. Just click on the HRDPS. It appears much better with temp profiles and p-types. Was pretty spot on with the last storm. Only issue is it comes out a couple hours later than the regular Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think snowgoose mentioned something about the off hr RGEM runs being bad but who knows, I have noticed that they do differ from 0z and 12z, The other thing, Its still outside 36hrs which i believe from there in its highly skilled so i take it as just another piece of guidance right now to look at for trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GYX says it's rain well beyond the Maine plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Boy definitely a trend of crapping this system out as it gets to my longitude. Closed low to the north is screwing up inflow on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hazey tuesday low went bye bye. So this is the big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hazey tuesday low went bye bye. So this is the big deal. Yeah I noticed that. Oh well can't get em' all. At least there is the 23-24th timeframe to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah I noticed that. Oh well can't get em' all. At least there is the 23-24th timeframe to watch. Yeah. Heh im under a snow squall watch at least. Tough for avalon northeast to get them but wsw winds is the way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah. Heh im under a snow squall watch at least. Tough for avalon northeast to get them but wsw winds is the way to do it. I saw that. Take it whatever way you can. Hopefully this storm trends better for you in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just so you guys know, in case you don't already, the Rgem has a higher resolution model on the meteo site. Just click on the HRDPS. It appears much better with temp profiles and p-types. Was pretty spot on with the last storm. Only issue is it comes out a couple hours later than the regular Rgem. It was really weird last winter though, I thought the RGEM did better than the hi-res version. I think it might be an instance of a model having too high a resolution for its own good, like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It was really weird last winter though, I thought the RGEM did better than the hi-res version. I think it might be an instance of a model having too high a resolution for its own good, like the NAM. Very possible. I didn't really start using it until this fall. Just another tool in the model garage. They all have there flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GYX says it's rain well beyond the Maine plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wrong map, That is the max potential map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wrong map, That is the max potential map Weird map. What is the dynamic behind the CRV getting more than the higher elevations of SW/West Central NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Weird map. What is the dynamic behind the CRV getting more than the higher elevations of SW/West Central NH? Don't know, But i do know this isn't Oceanstwx's map, His are more well defined and smoothed over, The potential exists to go up it seems SATURDAY`S SYSTEM: SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THEREGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS BASEDON NEW MODEL INFORMATION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BEMARGINAL. A MIX OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN WILLLIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...AREASJUST INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UPSEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL - ESPECIALLY THE CORRIDOR FROM LEWISTONUP THROUGH AUGUSTA AND WATERVILLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCEFORECAST...HOWEVER IF WET BULB READINGS GET ANY COOLER...SNOWACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THISPOTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think it's collaboration with BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't know, But i do know this isn't Oceanstwx's map, His are more well defined and smoothed over, The potential exists to go up it seems SATURDAY`S SYSTEM: SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS BASED ON NEW MODEL INFORMATION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL. A MIX OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL - ESPECIALLY THE CORRIDOR FROM LEWISTON UP THROUGH AUGUSTA AND WATERVILLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...HOWEVER IF WET BULB READINGS GET ANY COOLER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED MORE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HWO. That was updated right after I posted. In any event, still rain with maybe some pingers for me as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That was updated right after I posted. In any event, still rain with maybe some pingers for me as of right now. I would not be surprised if we see this continue to tic colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM is really marginal here...close to a blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM is really marginal here...close to a blue bomb.While under the CCB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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