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Pats/Chiefs Miller B-elichick


40/70 Benchmark

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Interested to see how this plays out on guidance tonight. Euro vortmax overshooting far East... at surface depicts a double-barrel low.

 

Sometimes that depiction is a model transition to a farther ots solution. There were a few ensemble members hanging out at 38N/65W to support that too. In this relatively progressive regime, I wouldn't be surprised.

 

Good example of this and played out as I anticipated yesterday (ie. big East shift at 0z last night was not a blip)... sometimes when Euro is transitioning towards a more eastern solution, it depicts a double-barrel low which is what it did 12z yesterday as a consequence of the vortmax overshooting much farther ots.

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Euro going wide right kind of like GFS...it does look cold marginally enough for ORH hills and Berks for some wet snow. But QPF is only around 3 or 4 tenths.

 

3 or 4 tenths wet snow at elevation would make for a good day at the Beast.  I'm not turning my nose up at it.  Leave the blizzard fetish to others.

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3 or 4 tenths wet snow at elevation would make for a good day at the Beast.  I'm not turning my nose up at it.  Leave the blizzard fetish to others.

 

 

I would completely embrace a nice advisory event...though it will be harder to overcome the marginal temps when we're getting lighter QPF, but certainly somewhere like Beast in the Berks would be able to do it in that scenario.

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Euro ensembles are a pretty decent look for CNE...and even down perhaps into N ORH hills and Berkshires. We'll have to keep an eye on this. Prob wouldn't take much of an earlier development of the coastal CCB to get a few more into the potential in SNE.

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Did you guys see any of those individual GEFs members...  

man - 

 

P009 has like a ... 938 mb low due S of NS and it's circumvella of influence is so ginormous that there is a blizzard raging over the Berks.  

 

not sure i've ever seen that modeled like that.   

 

anyway, about 9 of the 12 members were uber amped compared to the Euro ... kind of a little modeling war here -

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couple of kielbasa observations re the 18z NAM ...

... the 60-ish hours look tucked more west re the weekend fun, and the followup is descending harder down the Rockies playground slide...

just sayin'

The weekend storm has light sprinkles for some of you on the NAM :)
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And then there was Sipprell who had a different take lol

 

SYNOPTICALLY: ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE. SURFACE TO H85 NOR`EASTER

TRACK OUT OF THE N-GULF ALONG THE SE-COAST OFF THE CAROLINAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MOVING NE IN PROXIMITY TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BOMBING OUT S OF NOVA SCOTIA AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. LEANING TOWARDS AN OPEN-WAVE SETUP AT AND ABOVE H7 NEGATING
CYCLONIC TROWALING. FOCUS THEREFORE WITHIN THE N/NE-QUADRANT OF THE
H85 LOW AS THE ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYER BELT
TAKES PRECEDENT ... BUT THERMAL PACKING / DEFORMATION LIKELY NW OF
THE H85 LOW RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LIFT THROUGH SNOW-GROWTH REGIONS
WHERE ICE WILL BE PRESENT. COULD BE DEALING WITH AROUND 20 MICROBARS
PER SECOND OF OMEGA DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE H85 LOW AS
DEEP-LAYER FORCING PREVAILS BENEATH DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

THERMAL PROFILES: FOCUS ON H85 FREEZING LINE / 1000-850 THICKNESS.
DESPITE THE DOUBLE-BARREL LOW SETUP AND ABSENCE OF ARCTIC / CANADIAN
HIGH TO THE N WITH WARM AIR FUNNELING REARWARD OF THE NOR`EASTER ...
TAKING THE ENSEMBLES AND STRONG VERTICAL FORCING INTO CONSIDERATION
BELIEVE THAT DURING THE MORNING PASSAGE AREAS FROM N-CENTRAL CT NE
THROUGH WORCESTER INTO N/W ESSEX COUNTY MA WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION WHEREAS MORE N/W OF THE
AFOREMENTION LINE WILL SEE SNOW ... MAINLY WET SNOW WITH LOW SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. RAIN ELSEWHERE. TRANSITION LINE WILL LIKELY BACK
N/W THROUGH THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE STORM AND AS MILDER AIR OFF
THE OCEAN WORKS IN BEFORE RACING E LATE AS WINDS BACK W USHERING
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STORM EXITS E. WILL CONSIDER
SNOW OCCURRING AS WARM AS 36-DEGREES.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: THINKING A LIGHT SLUSH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ROADS REMAINING FAIRLY WET AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER AROUND 32 TO 36 DEGREES. THEN AGAIN IF IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH
LIKELY DROPPING THE TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR TWO WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
ACCUMULATION ON ALL SURFACES. N/W OF THE LINE EXPECT ACCUMULATION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. LOW CHANCE OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOWS.

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