JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 fyp True, for synoptic reality. But, I've definitely seen it signal a SE trend when it has been well SE of other guidance at this range. I've also seen it adjust NW, so like anything else it's just something to consider. But it jives well with wxsniss's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 True, for synoptic reality. But, I've definitely seen it signal a SE trend when it has been well SE of other guidance at this range. I've also seen it adjust NW, so like anything else it's just something to consider. But it jives well with wxsniss's thoughts. I don't even consider it at all really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So what's the p-type call for KCON? I was assuming rain, but the GYX guys are talking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 i loved your video, still have it? In front of Lafayette's resort https://youtu.be/NWDEJnTqwrE York beach parking lot. https://youtu.be/0XamS-X1OY4 My dad: turn around, don't drown? Me: Nah *Enters flooded parking lot* One of my favorite moments was actually when we were heading home and stopped at a rest area. I could not believe the trees were still standing, it was nuts. All the way home, the sky was just constant power flashes-- like strobe light lightning. Power wasn't on until we got into Alton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So what's the p-type call for KCON? I was assuming rain, but the GYX guys are talking snow. Flip a coin right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The wind never made it here. I had a gust to 30something. Damn inversion. Nov '50 is probably #1 here for a non-tropical system. No wind at my place either - the rain (and the earlier mashed-potato globs) fell straight down. Nov. 1950 is probably the strongest wind event I've witnessed, though I was only 4 and all I can recall is my dad saying it was time to go inside when he saw treetops breaking off. The only real competitor is New Year's Eve in 1962, with frigid (5/-8 in NNJ is a cold day) gales on the back side of the central Maine blizzard. Made 6' drifts out of 2" of wet (when it fell) snow. Those two events are the only ones which possibly had gusts to 70. We can dream of Saturday mega-bombs, and selected models are feeding those dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In front of Lafayette's resort https://youtu.be/NWDEJnTqwrE York beach parking lot. https://youtu.be/0XamS-X1OY4 My dad: turn around, don't drown? Me: Nah *Enters flooded parking lot* One of my favorite moments was actually when we were heading home and stopped at a rest area. I could not believe the trees were still standing, it was nuts. All the way home, the sky was just constant power flashes-- like strobe light lightning. Power wasn't on until we got into Alton. Great video. I love CF events like that. Respect the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In front of Lafayette's resort https://youtu.be/NWDEJnTqwrE York beach parking lot. https://youtu.be/0XamS-X1OY4 My dad: turn around, don't drown? Me: Nah *Enters flooded parking lot* One of my favorite moments was actually when we were heading home and stopped at a rest area. I could not believe the trees were still standing, it was nuts. All the way home, the sky was just constant power flashes-- like strobe light lightning. Power wasn't on until we got into Alton. Thanks. I spent a long time on here with Phi, Eck and Messenger analyzing that sub tropical low which rotated up around CC to the GOM then cut inland over NH. The tidal surge in Boston Harbor and Maine was enhanced when the low tide was unable to go out due to the wind. Amazing amazing night forever in my memory, especially since Scott left us forever. I will also remember that night and another night when Scott and I tracked a mini 950 low in the GOM which basically destroyed the buoy network in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 One of the most memorable wind events here. Its in the top 5 for power outages for NH. I remember the wind sounding like a train.. it seemed far more windy than Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That storm was an epic wind event in NE MA and SNH. Probably one of the most anomalous wind events for the interior of NH. Maybe not snow, but that storm was pretty incredible. and that storm effectively ended winter too. there was nothing to speak of (snowfall-wise) after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maybe an important GFS run as it appears the parental dynamics are just as of 12z's initialization ...arriving into the denser sampling out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 No wind at my place either - the rain (and the earlier mashed-potato globs) fell straight down. Nov. 1950 is probably the strongest wind event I've witnessed, though I was only 4 and all I can recall is my dad saying it was time to go inside when he saw treetops breaking off. The only real competitor is New Year's Eve in 1962, with frigid (5/-8 in NNJ is a cold day) gales on the back side of the central Maine blizzard. Made 6' drifts out of 2" of wet (when it fell) snow. Those two events are the only ones which possibly had gusts to 70. We can dream of Saturday mega-bombs, and selected models are feeding those dreams. Since we were in the same area close to the same age I'll ask what about the 54 canes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 and that storm effectively ended winter too. there was nothing to speak of (snowfall-wise) after that. We had the March 2010 flood event. That was one of the biggest flooding events in the metro BOS area in the last 100yrs. I know it didn't produce any snow, but can't say we didn't have the QPF! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maybe an important GFS run as it appears the parental dynamics are just as of 12z's initialization ...arriving into the denser sampling out west. Nice of you to keep it on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Almost looks like a warm core or hybrid this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A little more wide right this run on GFS. Thermal profiles are still putrid....the system doesn't have a whole lot of QPF in this depiction...except maybe the islands. The hastiness of its departure to the east would actually help out any chance for something behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS looks better for GC. Where it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah I think the quicker it gets out of the way..the better chance of something else. You could see that on the ensemble members too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ray assuming Scooter role from last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The nearer terms ... there is an old closed mid and u/a gyre over/around old Mexico that gets bumped back into the flow by the middle/southern stream system currently ejecting E out of the Pac over land out west as we type. That opening wave triggers deep convection over mid to N gulf and adjacent coastal regions, that appear to spawn convective/additional meso-beta-scaled vorticity maxima. The oper. GFS then partially conglomerates the spray of maxima and uses that to then entice the main S/W into a more E trajectory out around 84 hours when they start mingling there over the eastern TV and interior SE/lower MA regions. All that is dubious. It could certainly take place that way, but those uber complex interactions are predicated on the idea that the model is absolutely resolving said interaction - which is unlikely. Partially, perhaps... not well. There is likely to be some legitimate height falls associated with convective processing but it is unclear (really) how that will effect matters between 72 and 84 hours. Clearly though, the 48 hour appears suspiciously too far S with the sfc response, and it appears that is almost purely convectively driven at that point. ...originating out of the initial instability cast over the region by said opening old, old Mexico vestigial trough. In other words, there could be too much emphasis put on those lead dynamics in the current GFS. I just would take any sfc plan with an extra dose of incredulity beyond 60 hours this particular go - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If the lead shortwave Jan 16th gets the hell out of the way further southeast as discussed yesterday, the next shortwave tracking from Texas/Louisiana gets a decent shot with better antecedent airmass and larger impact on the east coast. The PV lobe eventually dislodges, and we may even see some interaction. We trade our snow bowl Jan 16 for a better shot Jan 18 at a Carolinas - SNE snowstorm. sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A little more wide right this run on GFS. Thermal profiles are still putrid....the system doesn't have a whole lot of QPF in this depiction...except maybe the islands. The hastiness of its departure to the east would actually help out any chance for something behind it. agreed - I tried to discuss this yesterday, that you can sometime do < 48 events successfully (obviously you know this...), but for the general reader. The GFS tries to show us how to get the job done on this run. It's got some things to figure out but it is close. as is though, get that lead drama as a short play before the main show is probably the better hope for the general user here. It'll be interesting to see what really happens over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ray assuming Scooter role from last year? lmao Ain't happening, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 agreed - I tried to discuss this yesterday, that you can sometime do < 48 events successfully (obviously you know this...), but for the general reader. The GFS tries to show us how to get the job done on this run. It's got some things to figure out but it is close. as is though, get that lead drama as a short play before the main show is probably the better hope for the general user here. It'll be interesting to see what really happens over the next week. John, you have really stood out to me this week. Great posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The nearer terms ... there is an old closed mid and u/a gyre over/around old Mexico that gets bumped back into the flow by the middle/southern stream system currently ejecting E out of the Pac over land out west as we type. That opening wave triggers deep convection over mid to N gulf and adjacent coastal regions, that appear to spawn convective/additional meso-beta-scaled vorticity maxima. The oper. GFS then partially conglomerates the spray of maxima and uses that to then entice the main S/W into a more E trajectory out around 84 hours when they start mingling there over the eastern TV and interior SE/lower MA regions. All that is dubious. It could certainly take place that way, but those uber complex interactions are predicated on the idea that the model is absolutely resolving said interaction - which is unlikely. Partially, perhaps... not well. There is likely to be some legitimate height falls associated with convective processing but it is unclear (really) how that will effect matters between 72 and 84 hours. Clearly though, the 48 hour appears suspiciously too far S with the sfc response, and it appears that is almost purely convectively driven at that point. ...originating out of the initial instability cast over the region by said opening old, old Mexico vestigial trough. In other words, there could be too much emphasis put on those lead dynamics in the current GFS. I just would take any sfc plan with an extra dose of incredulity beyond 60 hours this particular go - Good stuff. Euro is definitely a bit more east and less robust with that wave. The higher res GFS seems to show NAM like convective vorticity maxima sometimes, but it can be realistic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Since we were in the same area close to the same age I'll ask what about the 54 canes? Well remembered as a whole, in part because the big three's names covered, in order, a cousin, aunt, and great aunt. Hazel duels with Bob (in Maine) for my 3rd strongest wind event, and probably would come out clearly ahead without the 37-year gap for my memory to atrophy. It's one of only two storms I've seen that plastered leaf salad on the exteriors of buildings. (The other was a SE gale in Maine, but that one only had tender June leaves to chop, not the rugged October oak foliage.) Carol and Edna were too far east, especially the former, which I can't remember at all. We flew kites during Edna, with gusts probably <40 mph. Top tropical after Hazel/Bob are Donna in 1960 and TS Doria in 1971, both in NNJ. That latter plus the previous day's PRE produced 9" of rain in 24 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro is pretty consistent for Saturday...light snows over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro going wide right kind of like GFS...it does look cold marginally enough for ORH hills and Berks for some wet snow. But QPF is only around 3 or 4 tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 euro following the gfs? euro way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's no more east than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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