mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I would watch it for you guys and down into areas like nrn ORH county..maybe even NE MA. If the GFS is right, have to respect dynamics too. But overall it wraps in air that's too mild for a lot of spots. It's confusing reading what is in this thread and what GYX is writing. Maybe we will be cold enough but there will be not enough precip. I think this afternoon and tomorrow we could still see a helpful trend in track or temps. The GYX met talks about a building ridge at 110W so perhaps that helps depending upon how much it builds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's confusing reading what is in this thread and what GYX is writing. Maybe we will be cold enough but there will be not enough precip. I think this afternoon and tomorrow we could still see a helpful trend in track or temps. The GYX met talks about a building ridge at 110W so perhaps that helps depending upon how much it builds. Well it depends on where you live, in this thread. Certainly for you I would watch it, but no denying it's kind of an ugly setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maine has failed us... all hope is lost It will never snow again 2011-2012 lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Maine has failed us... all hope is lost It will never snow again 2011-2012 lives Record Nina is just killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's confusing reading what is in this thread and what GYX is writing. Maybe we will be cold enough but there will be not enough precip. I think this afternoon and tomorrow we could still see a helpful trend in track or temps. The GYX met talks about a building ridge at 110W so perhaps that helps depending upon how much it builds. You certainly should not be tossing in the towel, This is pretty damn close to a blue bomb, I'm on the edge here and a tic or two colder and its game on, The 06z GEFS was a weenie run for NNE over the next 10-15 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You certainly should not be tossing in the towel, This is pretty damn close to a blue bomb, I'm on the edge here and a tic or two colder and its game on, The 06z GEFS was a weenie run for NNE over the next 10 days or so What is confusing though is a lot of talk about tracks too far east, SE of the benchmark. Perhaps a strong primary creates an area of instability as it connects with the coastal low...an inverted trough? Thanks for the input. It is tough in this board when SNE is getting depressed, and because I am not good at reading models. I get all depressed and then realize maybe I shouldn't be so depressed. What an awesome look out your window! Still have the crust as a base to keep it all in place? 10 inches of snow changes everything....the look outside, your mood, and ultimately the outdoor fun that will result. There has been a decent amount of snow central n nw maine up into quebec I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At least we have the wind of today to remind us it's winter. Still hopeful that I might eek out a little snow up this way.....may as well break out the seed catalog. 19.1/8 You joke about the seed catalog but most farmers I know out here will start their indoor seeds in a few weeks. Meanwhile I am not giving up hope on a little snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I see a lot of people last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What is confusing though is a lot of talk about tracks too far east, SE of the benchmark. Perhaps a strong primary creates an area of instability as it connects with the coastal low...an inverted trough? Thanks for the input. It is tough in this board when SNE is getting depressed, and because I am not good at reading models. I get all depressed and then realize maybe I shouldn't be so depressed. What an awesome look out your window! Still have the crust as a base to keep it all in place? 10 inches of snow changes everything....the look outside, your mood, and ultimately the outdoor fun that will result. There has been a decent amount of snow central n nw maine up into quebec I think. Mahk, Honestly, I'm just starting to look at this one now, Pretty tied up with last nights as you know so i was not looking ahead and focused on that one...........lol, From what i have seen so far, Some models are tracking this BM and just inside, It looks like for up here over to NH and VT, That there is just enough cold air in place for this to be snow here with a mix and some rain along the coast, The ensembles on the Euro and GEFS seem to support a significant snow event for this region, So just follow along right now, The air mass is very marginal for the folks in SNE, The track of this storm would be a classic Nor 'easter for snow if it wasn't so warm down there, So i can see there pain being shut out so far for the most part this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gotta love a bombing low tracking around the BM giving a drving rainstorm up into CNE in the middle of Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not sure why everyone is pinning there hopes or planning their suicides on the GFS and GDPS. They both stunk on this last storm, especially up here. I'd ride the euro and then wait until it's in range of the RDPS. That model is on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You certainly should not be tossing in the towel, This is pretty damn close to a blue bomb, I'm on the edge here and a tic or two colder and its game on, The 06z GEFS was a weenie run for NNE over the next 10-15 days or so There's been so many weenie runs and talks of weenie runs the last few weeks that we could fill a hot dog factory with them. First if the was the storm of the 10th that was suppose to "turn it all around" and now it's back again to sloppy cutters and toaster baths. I say we all just go for the record low seasonal snowfall and bring on Spring so we can talk about sun angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Until the interaction between the PV lobe and polar jet shortwave decreases, you are not going to get many good looking solutions. The trend on the 00z suite was to increase this interaction which strengthened the primary and all of its associated conveyors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Mahk, Honestly, I'm just starting to look at this one now, Pretty tied up with last nights as you know so i was not looking ahead and focused on that one...........lol, From what i have seen so far, Some models are tracking this BM and just inside, It looks like for up here over to NH and VT, That there is just enough cold air in place for this to be snow here with a mix and some rain along the coast, The ensembles on the Euro and GEFS seem to support a significant snow event for this region, So just follow along right now, The air mass is very marginal for the folks in SNE, The track of this storm would be a classic Nor 'easter for snow if it wasn't so warm down there, So i can see there pain being shut out so far for the most part this winter Oh yes I understand their pain. lol. Been a long time since we have jacked on a good storm up here , despite the oft-hear "Congrats Dendrite". I Good to hear your quick view; it melds with the GYX discussion overnight. Let see how today's runs go, as this is happening in less than 72 hours. Tomorrow morn we can peek at the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Until the interaction between the PV lobe and polar jet shortwave decreases, you are not going to get many good looking solutions. The trend on the 00z suite was to increase this interaction which strengthened the primary and all of its associated conveyors. You think there's any chance we can still manage a flip back to snow in the higher terrain at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gotta love a bombing low tracking around the BM giving a drving rainstorm up into CNE in the middle of Winter. Yes, we should all appreciate such things from a meteorological perspective. ; ) I'll be shocked if this pattern doesn't produce at least one warning event. Although if the GFS were correct about this weekend's system it would feel like using up one of our silver bullets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Jeffafa take a GGEM JMA NAVY look and run, geezus what a plastering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yes, we should all appreciate such things from a meteorological perspective. ; ) I'll be shocked if this pattern doesn't produce at least one warning event. Although if the GFS were correct about this weekend's system it would feel like using up one of our silver bullets. its evolving , liking it very much 23rdish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You think there's any chance we can still manage a flip back to snow in the higher terrain at some point? Yeah if it trends back to less interaction then it could end up as mostly snow. But we'd better see it start soon at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Jeffafa take a GGEM JMA NAVY look and run, geezus what a plastering The Canadian would be a Tulip Trouncer inland, but it's not right, never been right, and never will be right. EPS is more GFS like. Sounds like Op Euro was out to lunch. Either way..best guess now is rain ending as snow. When it flips determines if it's flakes or can we flip early enough to at least get a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yes, we should all appreciate such things from a meteorological perspective. ; ) I'll be shocked if this pattern doesn't produce at least one warning event. Although if the GFS were correct about this weekend's system it would feel like using up one of our silver bullets. Give the snow to the places that need it the most. Ski/XC areas up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Give the snow to the places that need it the most. Ski/XC areas up north. Hey Wachusett could use some snow, they still don't have all their snowmaking trails open lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Canadian would be a Tulip Trouncer inland, but it's not right, never been right, and never will be right. EPS is more GFS like. Sounds like Op Euro was out to lunch. Either way..best guess now is rain ending as snow. When it flips determines if it's flakes or can we flip early enough to at least get a few inches i was talking about interior Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hey Wachusett could use some snow, they still don't have all their snowmaking trails open lol. So could the Berkshires, most of Vermont, and much of New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 What happened to Ray Nothing. You just have to know when to fold 'em, dude. I think people would be better served to wonder what had "happened" to me had I kept blindly calling for a major snow event this weekend. This doesn't make me feel differently about my winter outlook, no. I still love my seasonal progression, but I'm sorry that I could not foresee a tad too much PV lobe interaction at a two month lead. I still think that the second half rocks, and if it doesn't, then it will have been due to the bad luck associated with atmospheric chaos, not a bad forecasting rationale....though I will still grade my snowfall amounts as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Is this one of those situations that could end up giving us a real "paste" snow? I mean where the temps are marginal enough at all levels to produce a high density type snowstorm (or snow to rain to snow) away from the coast? Could the secondary prove to be strong enough to pull in enough cold air to make this happen? I'm not looking for IMBY. I'm wondering about the meteorology here. It seems as if the primary is the villain, but would a stronger secondary relative to the primary change things, or, is the atmosphere just too warm for it to make a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yes, we should all appreciate such things from a meteorological perspective. ; ) I'll be shocked if this pattern doesn't produce at least one warning event. Although if the GFS were correct about this weekend's system it would feel like using up one of our silver bullets. Having experienced (Feb 2010) cold rain on NE winds from a "perfect track" storm while NYC got buried under 21", the anomaly is something to brag about even with the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So could the Berkshires, most of Vermont, and much of New Hampshire. So could CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Having experienced (Feb 2010) cold rain on NE winds from a "perfect track" storm while NYC got buried under 21", the anomaly is something to brag about even with the pain. That was an absolutely totally different setup though, you were under total marine air from the mega NAO just draining in Atlantic 38 degree air at all levels. Not close to what this is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So could CT Yeah, sort of forgot about them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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