40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Event is coming into focus as an earlier transfer to a coastal has trended as I theorized that it would on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Most definitely a deepening trend over the past several GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Considerably deeper than the last few cycles. Liking the trend towards dampening out the primary faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Event is coming into focus as an earlier transfer to a coastal has trended as I theorized that it would on Sunday night. You seemed like you were backing off yesterday. But good call overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 You seemed like you were backing off yesterday. But good call overall. I was backing off the juggernaut idea, which is still possible. I also said that I expect to see a more consolidated coastal, though I hated seeing some of those solutions. You can't express any dismay regarding a particular modeled outcome without some calling it a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Good title. I'm pretty sure it will snow somewhere in SNE... but where and how much are anybody's guess. I like the idea of it being a Miller B from what little I have seen of guidance so far... a pretty run of the mill one I would anticipate, which would be salve for many wounded. Still a number of days to get the players out of the locker room and onto the field though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was backing off the juggernaut idea, which is still possible. I also said that I expect to see a more consolidated coastal, though I hated seeing some of those solutions. You can't express any dismay regarding a particular modeled outcome without some calling it a forecast. well 974 is juggernaut, too bad its progressive but man that has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 well 974 is juggernaut, too bad its progressive but man that has potential What I mean by juggernaut as in a general 1-2'. I should have clarified....but yes, very strong low, progressive as it may be. Don't sleep on heavy potential, though....this goes nuts, it won't take long to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Weenie snow into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You can't express any dismay regarding a particular modeled outcome without some calling it a forecast. It is hard to tell what is a "forecast" and what is just conversation given how often a lot of us post...which posts mean what, etc. Expressing dismay at a turn of events seems like leaving a prior standpoint of positive outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Foxboro should be in a decent enough location. I could see them changing over fairly quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 It is hard to tell what is a "forecast" and what is just conversation given how often a lot of us post...which posts mean what, etc. Well, it was a "model thread"....but pretty good bet that had I altered my outlook on the system, I would have updated my blog to reflect that. Go read my last post linked below in my sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 There is a weenie source of cold waiting to be tapped in Maine. The GFS with the normally horrific thermal profiles show this. I think it;s one to watch even in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What I mean by juggernaut as in a general 1-2'. I should have clarified....but yes, very strong low, progressive as it may be. Don't sleep on heavy potential, though....this goes nuts, it won't take long to get smoked. i see a closed 534 under us, very encouraging, crashing heights blue bomber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Foxboro should be in a decent enough location. I could see them changing over fairly quickly They could be dancing on the edge for quite a while, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 No argument, Steve....extraordinary potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 God I would love to see a snow bomb for the Pats game. Loving the potential on this, even without a strong cold source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Shades of 2005 with the PS snowbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 By the way, is our Pacific shortwave being well-sampled at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One of the trends has been to weaken the PV lobe interaction with the PJ and instead focus more on the STJ/PJ phase...this helps concentrate the conveyors on the developing coastal low and shuts off the WAA to the west sooner...this is a good trend as I had mentioned yesterday that phasing with the PV lobe was a bad result for us as it would promote a stronger primary further to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One of the trends has been to weaken the PV lobe interaction with the PJ and instead focus more on the STJ/PJ phase...this helps concentrate the conveyors on the developing coastal low and shuts off the WAA to the west sooner...this is a good trend as I had mentioned yesterday that phasing with the PV lobe was a bad result for us as it would promote a stronger primary further to the north. I also noticed some energy in the SW US that seems to help kick it east a bit quicker and doesn't allow it to turn the corner like 12z yesterday did. It's the new s/w that spawns a low near the Gulf. I mean look at the timing differences from yesterday to today. Pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One of the trends has been to weaken the PV lobe interaction with the PJ and instead focus more on the STJ/PJ phase...this helps concentrate the conveyors on the developing coastal low and shuts off the WAA to the west sooner...this is a good trend as I had mentioned yesterday that phasing with the PV lobe was a bad result for us as it would promote a stronger primary further to the north. I do see this as well. See how this plays out in future runs as it has huge implications for marginal locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ukmet has storm at 972mb near Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 This looks decent for many. I really hope this doesn't drift any further south or east for mby or ticks back NW a tad. It would be nice to get this wrapped up a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 But yeah for anyone looking, start at hr 54 on the 12z GFS and look at the difference at H5 near TX. Notice the STJ energy and PJ energy the Will mentioned are much more in sync as compared to 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 00z Friday. Estimating the start time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That's a pretty strong low on the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Crazy uncle strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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