Animal Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18 z nam would flip the interior over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 17z HRRR is now calling for 3 - 6" of snow for tonight for the Poconos up to the Catskills. 18z NAM is colder. You need to be over 1000' above sea level to get in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 17z HRRR is now calling for 3 - 6" of snow for tonight for the Poconos up to the Catskills. 18z NAM is colder. You need to be over 1000' above sea level to get in on this. The BL is warm closer to the coast but that can be overcome with strong dynamic cooling. 700mb is cold. 850's are only +1 or +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks to be an interesting overnight for the folks in the higher elevations tonight. FWIW where the "colder" part of the storm is situated in western NC they are getting heavy rain at those reporting stations with temps only in the high 30's. The key to this event up there will be precip intensity and the ability to overcame the warmer temps at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks to be an interesting overnight for the folks in the higher elevations tonight. FWIW where the "colder" part of the storm is situated in western NC they are getting heavy rain at those reporting stations with temps only in the high 30's. The key to this event up there will be precip intensity and the ability to overcame the warmer temps at 850mb. I consider my location the higher terrain in nj. Expecting mostly all rain. Possibly a flip to snow near the end. Maybe a slushy inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z RGEM is coming in stronger and colder. 3MB deeper so far and only out to 06z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think someone in S NY, NW NJ, NE PA sees 2-4"+ from this 'non-event', looks like one heck of a strong nor'easter for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think the major reason why the models are showing nothing is because the BL is in the mid-upper 30's for most of the storm. As if it couldn't snow with shallow warmth at night in January under strong dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS is stronger off initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 interesting enough even for the coast most models have it at 33 -35 degrees,if one was to look at the trends id say the primary low is already dying out and the coastal is looking serious!.dynamic cooling and a nne wind should tap some cooler air as it churns up the coast without the primary giving the torch.we might be in for a surprise with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS is stronger off initialization The GFS is almost OTS. It shouldn't be used at this range anyway. Stick to the short term and high res like RAP/HRRR/RGEM/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The GFS is almost OTS. It shouldn't be used at this range anyway. Stick to the short term and high res like RAP/HRRR/RGEM/NAM. Well 4knam, and HRRR are rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well 4knam, and HRRR are rain Elevation is gonna be a must with this event.. 1000' should do it. It's gonna come down to precip intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well 4knam, and HRRR are rain The are going to show all rain because the BL is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Elevation is gonna be a must with this event.. 1000' should do it. It's gonna come down to precip intensity I'm not sure about that. The warm tongue extends up to about 850mb or 5000 feet. Granted it's quite cold above that so any strong dynamics would help, but the GFS and RGEM both trended further offshore with the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Elevation is gonna be a must with this event.. 1000' should do it. It's gonna come down to precip intensity Well I'm not anywhere near 1000 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well I'm not anywhere near 1000 lol Yeah most areas along the walkill are around 300-400'. I like my side of the county tonight but I would Feel a little more comfortable if I was in Greenville. Elevations there range from 1000-1300' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking at these short terms and the upper levels, I would say mixed bag of rain/snow, tapering off to some snow shower, dusting at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking at these short terms and the upper levels, I would say mixed bag of rain/snow, tapering off to some snow shower, dusting at most Yeah I'm not expecting much.. Would be a pleasant surprise though if we woke up with a nice blanket of white gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 RGEM has a couple hours of frozen precip for NWNJ SNY and forky,allsnow. Not to sure why it has frozen precip in Middlesex and rain in Morris county. More hours of frozen precip for NWNJ, SENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 00z NAM was a lot wetter and further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 00z NAM was a lot wetter and further NW What's that mean for us? Better chance at a changeover to snow? I'm not expecting anything, but I'm just curious at this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Southern Jersey about to get crushed with very heavy rain and maybe some thunder/lightning. Look at those radar echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Any details on the short range models. Or is all hope lost in the interior NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ovc and 27 up here. We'll see soon what actually falls from the sky. ALY issued WWA's from Ulster County north. Any details on the short range models. Or is all hope lost in the interior NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ovc and 28 up here. We'll see soon what actually falls from the sky. ALY issued WWA's from Ulster County north. I got kicked in the gutt...tonight..again. Told the wife..we are moving to denver or park city, ut. For real this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Everybody has been this winter. 6.5" here to date...don't think we'll be reaching our normal of 80 inches this year. Most likely gonna start as freezing rain here soon. I got kicked in the gutt...tonight..again. Told the wife..we are moving to denver or park city, ut. For real this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I wonder if that heavy band offshore will come over LI. Does anyone have link to a short range model that runs every hour or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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