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January 16th Nor' Easter & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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It wouldn't take all that much for you to get an all snow event, for here I'd love for the low to bomb out and give us some rain and wind (although a dying low to our NW is a terrible recipe for winds)

It would take a lot right now for anyone in our subforum to see an all snow event. The primary low would have to be very weak or nonexistent which is highly unlikely. There's no real cold air for this system to work with. When the primary low is cutting to the west and making it as far north as the models are showing it's no bueno.

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It would take a lot right now for anyone in our subforum to see an all snow event. The primary low would have to be very weak or nonexistent which is highly unlikely. There's no real cold air for this system to work with. When the primary low is cutting to the west and making it as far north as the models are showing it's no bueno.

He lives in Ulster County, the Alaska of the NYC subforum.
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It wouldn't take all that much for you to get an all snow event, for here I'd love for the low to bomb out and give us some rain and wind (although a dying low to our NW is a terrible recipe for winds)

No high to the north =s no pressure gradient so a windy nor'easter isn't going to happen. Honestly next with this whole mess

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Wont matter.. You have a 980s LP cutting west of you and dying in S Canada.. 9 times out of 10 thats a rain event throughout most of NYS & SNE.

That's the point though, the GFS had it dying south of Canada and if the mid level lows track south of the area it's not a stretch for areas like Ulster to get at least mostly snow. We're talking about how much this needs to trend better for his area, it wouldn't take a earth shattering shift for him to see a plowable event. Of course if tonight's runs take a step back or hold serve this is all moot.
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That's the point though, the GFS had it dying south of Canada and if the mid level lows track south of the area it's not a stretch for areas like Ulster to get at least mostly snow. We're talking about how much this needs to trend better for his area, it wouldn't take a earth shattering shift for him to see a plowable event. Of course if tonight's runs take a step back or hold serve this is all moot.

 

lol.. I live 10 mins south of Ulster county. We won't be getting an all snow event from this. A few inches is possible though.

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As a disclaimer, I was only saying that N+W areas have a chance at NOT being all rain lol

That's a given, as it is the GFS ends you as snow. I won't get into senseless argument of whether we need a moderate or monumental shift for you to see snow, but it's certainly something your area should keep an eye on (It's pretty sad that the prospect for the potential of 4-6 inches of cement in Ulster county is keeping me busy, but there's just nothing to look at)
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The worst part is that the second short wave looks so damn good down south. This system modifies the height field enough that it shoots out to sea.

It's like a nightmare.

We need more seperation, we saw this a few times the last few years where models had events too close together and in the end they had a bit more separation, allowing the heights to rise.
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At this point it looks like both storm are pretty much dead. Sure you may have a wind driven rain this weekend, but we've seen that three times this winter. 

 

I don't see any way that the second system can come even close to the coast with that closed low in the Great Lakes blasting it out. 

 

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970 low on the benchmark and still rain up to central New Englad. WTF. This is friggin terrible.

Time to throw in the towel

It really is crazy. Just when I think I'm getting the hang of things -- esp setups -- mother nature figures out a way to mess with my head.

Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk

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There would probably be some backend snows because this coastal really intensifies but yeah nothing significant.

We already knew days ago this wouldn't be a snow maker though, the signs were pretty obvious. You win some, you lose some.

I for one am excited to finally see a strong nor'easter around here.

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There would probably be some backend snows because this coastal really intensifies but yeah nothing significant.

We already knew days ago this wouldn't be a snow maker though, the signs were pretty obvious. You win some, you lose some.

I for one am excited to finally see a strong nor'easter around here.

Given the evolution of the storm, even the winds are pretty meh.
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