MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It wouldn't take all that much for you to get an all snow event, for here I'd love for the low to bomb out and give us some rain and wind (although a dying low to our NW is a terrible recipe for winds) You would love for the low to give us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It wouldn't take all that much for you to get an all snow event, for here I'd love for the low to bomb out and give us some rain and wind (although a dying low to our NW is a terrible recipe for winds) It would take a lot right now for anyone in our subforum to see an all snow event. The primary low would have to be very weak or nonexistent which is highly unlikely. There's no real cold air for this system to work with. When the primary low is cutting to the west and making it as far north as the models are showing it's no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You would love for the low to give us snow Always, but being that it's unlikely, I'd take any consolation prize I can get my piggy little hands on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It would take a lot right now for anyone in our subforum to see an all snow event. The primary low would have to be very weak or nonexistent which is highly unlikely. There's no real cold air for this system to work with. When the primary low is cutting to the west and making it as far north as the models are showing it's no bueno.He lives in Ulster County, the Alaska of the NYC subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 He lives in Ulster County, the Alaska of the NYC subforum. Lol, I'm aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It wouldn't take all that much for you to get an all snow event, for here I'd love for the low to bomb out and give us some rain and wind (although a dying low to our NW is a terrible recipe for winds) No high to the north =s no pressure gradient so a windy nor'easter isn't going to happen. Honestly next with this whole mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 He lives in Ulster County, the Alaska of the NYC subforum. Wont matter.. You have a 980s LP cutting west of you and dying in S Canada.. 9 times out of 10 thats a rain event throughout most of NYS & SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wont matter.. You have a 980s LP cutting west of you and dying in S Canada.. 9 times out of 10 thats a rain event throughout most of NYS & SNE.That's the point though, the GFS had it dying south of Canada and if the mid level lows track south of the area it's not a stretch for areas like Ulster to get at least mostly snow. We're talking about how much this needs to trend better for his area, it wouldn't take a earth shattering shift for him to see a plowable event. Of course if tonight's runs take a step back or hold serve this is all moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That's the point though, the GFS had it dying south of Canada and if the mid level lows track south of the area it's not a stretch for areas like Ulster to get at least mostly snow. We're talking about how much this needs to trend better for his area, it wouldn't take a earth shattering shift for him to see a plowable event. Of course if tonight's runs take a step back or hold serve this is all moot. lol.. I live 10 mins south of Ulster county. We won't be getting an all snow event from this. A few inches is possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Always, but being that it's unlikely, I'd take any consolation prize I can get my piggy little hands on. Sub 980 low on the benchmark in January and still rain. SMMFH. :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As a disclaimer, I was only saying that N+W areas have a chance at NOT being all rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Sub 980 low on the benchmark in January and still rain. SMMFH. :axe: :axe:I just hope it's not your own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I just hope it's not your own What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What?I hope it's not your own mother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As a disclaimer, I was only saying that N+W areas have a chance at NOT being all rain lolThat's a given, as it is the GFS ends you as snow. I won't get into senseless argument of whether we need a moderate or monumental shift for you to see snow, but it's certainly something your area should keep an eye on (It's pretty sad that the prospect for the potential of 4-6 inches of cement in Ulster county is keeping me busy, but there's just nothing to look at) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'll be in central Vermont at 1700'. Making moves ='s snow. I just couldn't take it anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 0z GFS @ hr 78 has the coastal already the dominant lp. 987 off cape hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 0z GFS @ hr 78 has the coastal already the dominant lp. 987 off cape hatterasIt's not good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's not good enoughGets to sub 970 but is very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Im officially done with this threat.. Atleast we got to see some white gold today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Some Funky tuck of the 850's freezing line at hour 84, is that from dynamic cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The worst part is that the second short wave looks so damn good down south. This system modifies the height field enough that it shoots out to sea. It's like a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Some Funky tuck of the 850's freezing line at hour 84, is that from dynamic cooling? The primary will destroy any potential this event has. Its too bad cause the secondary looks to be a powerhouse too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The worst part is that the second short wave looks so damn good down south. This system modifies the height field enough that it shoots out to sea. It's like a nightmare. We need more seperation, we saw this a few times the last few years where models had events too close together and in the end they had a bit more separation, allowing the heights to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At this point it looks like both storm are pretty much dead. Sure you may have a wind driven rain this weekend, but we've seen that three times this winter. I don't see any way that the second system can come even close to the coast with that closed low in the Great Lakes blasting it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 970 low on the benchmark and still rain up to central New Englad. WTF. This is friggin terrible. Time to throw in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GGEM is rain up to New England lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 970 low on the benchmark and still rain up to central New Englad. WTF. This is friggin terrible. Time to throw in the towel It really is crazy. Just when I think I'm getting the hang of things -- esp setups -- mother nature figures out a way to mess with my head. Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 There would probably be some backend snows because this coastal really intensifies but yeah nothing significant. We already knew days ago this wouldn't be a snow maker though, the signs were pretty obvious. You win some, you lose some. I for one am excited to finally see a strong nor'easter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 There would probably be some backend snows because this coastal really intensifies but yeah nothing significant. We already knew days ago this wouldn't be a snow maker though, the signs were pretty obvious. You win some, you lose some. I for one am excited to finally see a strong nor'easter around here. Given the evolution of the storm, even the winds are pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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