IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If it still doesn't show snow in that setup then this weekend is down the drain. The primary just destroys the initial airmass so whats left over is junk. The trailing shortwave has trended so much stronger that I'd rather this just hurried up and got out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Strange trend today does it continue? Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The primary advects warm air like a boss, things did trend somewhat better and if that primary stays just a hair south and weaker we could see our NW neighbors cash in. The cold air really isn't that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 850s @ hr 84.. Not gonna cut it. I know it cools after but as you can see the airmass goes to s*** from the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's getting close, but if that primary dies off 12-24 hours quicker, then areas NW of the city would start to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 After looking more closely at recent guidance and digesting what is happening aloft, this really isnt as excruciatingly close as some folks are suggesting. 850 line is well N and W with just pockets of sub-freezing 850s sprinkled in. Would take an extreme situation to get mixing to allow for snow in NYC. We've certainly had improvements over the last 36 hours but as some already pointed out, the antecedent airmass is meh and the primary allows for too much WAA. BL temps are lousy too. I'm leaning 75% rain, 25% snow chances right now in NYC, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If this closed off 6 to 12 hours sooner it probably would have bombed out in a great place and the CCB would have cranked overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If this closed off 6 to 12 hours sooner it probably would have bombed out in a great place and the CCB would have cranked overhead. I agree. Have some better wave spacing down south, allow the energy to consolidate and dig more than the 18z, energy will close off earlier (ideally near VA), and there you go. 00z guidance will have to trend this way, otherwise I'm going to have to punt this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If we keep trending like this, maybe a CCB does develop over our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm getting a dejavu vibe from this. This looks and feels all too familiar. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm getting a dejavu vibe from this. This looks and feels all too familiar. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk Well that settles it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro para came in colder. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro para came in colder. Interesting. Where do you view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well that settles it.It feels like from something that happened within the past two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Much more dynamic cooling on the ECM Para (which has the highest verification scores in the world now at D5) The models resolution is picking up on this. Interesting to see. However, the primary is still rather strong over Canada and it has a strange double low which might be feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro para came in colder. Interesting. Also.. Does the primary do its damage before the transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Where do you view it. WxBell and StormVista Or WSI internal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Also.. Does the primary do its damage before the transfer Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hearing there is a CCB associated with the storm on the Para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yestheres a possibility this can turn snowy even for NYC with evaporative cooling? I'm thinking this has only trended colder the last 24 hours. I'm excited for tonight's runs. The only models I would really pay attention to is the GFS and especially ukmet and euro... Can't wait for tonight I'm very excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 theres a possibility this can turn snowy even for NYC with evaporative cooling? I'm thinking this has only trended colder the last 24 hours. I'm excited for tonight's runs. The only models I would really pay attention to is the GFS and especially ukmet and euro... Can't wait for tonight I'm very excited! As of now this is a rain storm for most of, if not all of this subforum. A few changes could give the far NW burbs a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As of now this is a rain storm for most of, if not all of this subforum. A few changes could give the far NW burbs a few inches. Agreed.. We may get a few inches up here but for the most part this is a rain event. We have had favorable trends today but ultimately that primary needs to die a quick death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 does the Parallel Euro ever get cold enough for snow on Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Hearing there is a CCB associated with the storm on the Para. Slightly more pronounced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 does the Parallel Euro ever get cold enough for snow on Long Island? Not even close. It doesn't even get cold enough for snow in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 OPC 96hr surface cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not even close. It doesn't even get cold enough for snow in NJ. that's what i figured. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Also.. Does the primary do its damage before the transferYes another all rain solution. The models are like a pendulum with this storm, they swing back and forth between rain and rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yes another all rain solution. The models are like a pendulum with this storm, they swing back and forth between rain and rain.... still something to watch for those of us far enough N+W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 still something to watch for those of us far enough N+WIt wouldn't take all that much for you to get an all snow event, for here I'd love for the low to bomb out and give us some rain and wind (although a dying low to our NW is a terrible recipe for winds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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