PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes but still favorable trends No it is not . I showed you this away KNYC 0z at 108 850 0 BL 39 12z at 96 850 +3 BL 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the entire evolution of this storm needs to change. forget about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the entire evolution of this storm needs to change. forget about it The high leaves so its done . The guidance saw that 3/4 days ago and it was over . He is holding onto an 18z run from a week ago. Good call R/vs OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 No it is not . I showed you this away KNYC 0z at 108 850 0 BL 39 12z at 96 850 +3 BL 42 Its a stronger secondary. We just need colder temps. Plenty of time if the low really bombs out. Too early to quit. If this still shows by Thursday then alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Its a stronger secondary. We just need colder temps. Plenty of time if the low really bombs out. Too early to quit. If this still shows by Thursday then alright. To snow, yeah, generally that's the concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 To snow, yeah, generally that's the concept. And the mechanism to hold it on the coastal plain left the guidance 4 days ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Its a stronger secondary. We just need colder temps. Plenty of time if the low really bombs out. Too early to quit. If this still shows by Thursday then alright.There is no cold air bro. Give it up it's over. Every model is all rain. This is a New England storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The high leaves so its done . The guidance saw that 3/4 days ago and it was over . He is holding onto an 18z run from a week ago. Good call R/vs OTS I really like how the new parallel Euro set to go operational in March had a warmer run before the old Euro and GFS. The other models are also converging on a stronger secondary low closer to the coast with more of a warm push ahead of the storm which the parallel had first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The warmest KSWF gets during the entire storm is 35.7 degrees on the 12z GFS. If the folks living down in coastal NJ or Central NJ want to throw in the towel that's understandable but you don't need a major change to deliver the goods inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The warmest KSWF gets during the entire storm is 35.7 degrees on the 12z GFS. If the folks living down in coastal NJ or Central NJ want to throw in the towel that's understandable but you don't need a major change to deliver the goods inland. Yeah this is far from over up here.. If you are 45+ miles NW/N/NE from NYC I would still keep an eye on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I really like how the new parallel Euro set to go operational in March had a warmer run before the old Euro and GFS. The other models are also converging on a stronger secondary low closer to the coast with more of a warm push ahead of the storm which the parallel had first. It did . Took LP into the OHV when the other were OTS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah this is far from over up here.. If you are 45+ miles NW/N/NE from NYC I would still keep an eye on this Middletown on N and E at 96 it`s - 1 at 850 - 925s are 0 and 34 at the surface . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 So the 12z ECMWF lost the idea of the short wave trough in the Ohio Valley closing off, which is a big deal for those N/W of the Lower Hudson Valley. This means less of an influence from your primary and we have to monitor this to see if there is even less influence over the next 48 hours. There is a distinct possibility that the short wave is able to dig a bit further now, given that there is some better spacing with the height field. This would in turn open up the idea that the system would be able to close-off near the Delmarva, which needless to say, would give the NYC sub-burbs a decent shot a yet another colder solution in the subsequent runs later this evening. Additionally, if you take a look at the 850mb Rel Humidity/Temp progs, you can see a classic example of dynamic cooling taking place and the embryonic stages of a high trying to build (just a little too late) up in Canada. In my opinion, if you have the surface and mid-level lows a bit deeper and nudged further east once the system is near the coast, then portions of NJ, NY state, and CT would have a shot at some wet snow this weekend. Basically, all I'm saying is just keep a weary eye on this system. It's highly dynamic and I am confident we're not done seeing changes (All images are courtesy of the MUWIC and are in compliance with our contract with Accuweather) 850mb RH/Temp/ Wind 700mb VVEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The ensembles on geps put the coastal low further south and east at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Early returns are that this will be a much better GFS run. The trough is digging further South and the transfer is occurring quicker and further South than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's so close to closing off at H5 in a perfect position at 87hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 981mb 75mi SE of Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Closes off right over the benchmark. Excruciatingly close for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 972mb SE of the BM. Looks like some wrap around snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Off topic but the GFS has snow all the way into Southern Louisiana late Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Close but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One thing to take off from that run: Impressive low. 973 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Close but no cigar As it pulls away no CCBsnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 As it pulls away no CCBsnow? Waiting for the panels to update. That's as far as it goes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Close but no cigar If it still doesn't show snow in that setup then this weekend is down the drain. The primary just destroys the initial airmass so whats left over is junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Off topic again, things just got a lot more interesting for the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One of the biggest negatives is the sucky airmass ahead of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 New GFS kills the inland primary sooner this run. Still say north of PHLY with that storm bombing in good spot, marginal air (33-40F) / N-NE Winds, and intense precip banding we could have a nice changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One of the biggest negatives is the sucky airmass ahead of this system.The primary advects warm air like a boss, things did trend somewhat better and if that primary stays just a hair south and weaker we could see our NW neighbors cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I miss the old non-El Nino years when a storm undergoing bombogenesis would develop its own cold pool aloft. You would think that in mid winter this would be a no-brainer, especially given the track and associated dynamics. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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