Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Over past 2 days most guidance is pointing to a coastal low, with a stubborn reflection remaining well inland. Can still be snow for some parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 12GFS coming in very close to Larry Cosgrove's idea of rain to snow north of PHL, and maybe a signficant snow well N&W and in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS has pretty strong winds for the coast as well, if we can't see snow I hope the low ends up being a mega bomb with strong winds (it kind of sucks not having a high up north for a tight pressure gradient) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes marginal cold, but this is VERY close to a nice surprise changeover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes marginal cold, but this is VERY close to a nice surprise changeover... Maybe we'll get a lucky March 98 type of surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What is the latest timing of the rain/wind on Saturday? I fly out of JFK at 11:00am on Sat so curious on the wind more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The 12z GEFS mean tracks very similar to the OP and is rain into E PA and Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty much your rain/mix line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty much your rain/mix line How warm is 700-850? Thats most likely the problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Great track but no cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 How warm is 700-850? Thats most likely the problem.. It's actually quite cold. The problem is 850mb and below. If we can get some stronger dynamics in play you might be able to work more of the colder air aloft down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah, marginal cold close by, and a bombing ~980-990 low 100 miles of the coast....I think someone in this forum sees 1-3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ukie with a 972 low near LI, hopefully we get a nice raw good old fashion Nor'easter out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's actually quite cold. The problem is 850mb and below. If we can get some stronger dynamics in play you might be able to work more of the colder air aloft down. That graphic actually shows a snow event for Orange county.. We need that primary to die quickly to have any chance up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ukie with a 972 low near LI, hopefully we get a nice raw good old fashion Nor'easter out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 With that setup there has to be a good changeover at least for the area...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 With that setup there has to be a good changeover at least for the area...no?Look at the isobars extendig well NW of the area, it's hard to tell where the primary goes with only the 24 hour panels, but we need that to die well south of where it is currently depicted to. It won't flood us with WAA and will also allow for the cold to be much close as the coastal bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 My guess is that the Ukie verbatim is a major rainstorm for our area with lots of snow well North. The primary makes it to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If we can get a nice coastal then sign me up. A low in the 970s nearby sounds good for some heavy rain/wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro has a 982mb low South of Long Island, too warm for the immediate coast to start, then a decent amount of cold air wraps in behind it with a 978mb low just SW of the benchmark. Very close to a paste job inland and closer to something better for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If precip doesn't shut off, just about everyone would end as snow Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro comes in colder now. Lift got the post in before me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro also now has that large blob of convection to the Southeast of the center associated with another developing surface low, essentially robbing the developing CCB of more moisture. I wonder if this is partially warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Interesting nam shows the coastal forming around Georgia area at end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nam and gefs, sorta look same at the time the secondary starts, from my view... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Gefs and nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro is all rain. The snow doesn't start till you get up into interior elevated southern New England and points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You know someone's going to hammer you for that 84hr Nam profile; just a heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You know someone's going to hammer you for that 84hr Nam profile; just a heads up. That's OK. Just pointing out how it matches gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro is all rain. The snow doesn't start till you get up into interior elevated southern New England and points north Yes but still favorable trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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