A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 make more posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 RC actually referenced this past weekend's storm in the afternoon LOT afd.I have little confidence in the outcome considering the spread. Somewhat surprised the Euro and Parallel Euro and most of the EPS members trended so quickly away from what it showed a few days ago, but then again, the ECMWF suite didn't handle this past weekend well either. Having the main players over the RAOB network didn't help us with the weekend storm, but I'm hoping that the gap gets closed some tomorrow. Looks like at least partial sampling of the main Pac wave for tomorrow's 12z run. A way in which this becomes more significant for northern IL can be envisioned, and NAM is closer to that, though as it stands now odds are higher for minor accums at best. Hopefully it trends back the other way in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z NAM jumped north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z NAM jumped north. Same with the GFS. Also a weaker wave. In fact is basically dry here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Throwing the towel and hoping for a torch. Screw this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Practically seems like a glorified frontal passage now. I propose next time we wait until within 84 hours to start a thread, because in hindsight the last two look like they are not threadworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Practically seems like a glorified frontal passage now. I propose next time we wait until within 84 hours to start a thread, because in hindsight the last two look like they are not threadworthy. At least with the last system, it looked like big snow numbers were going to happen within 36 hours. We were all thrown for a last minute loop. Bad timing between the low and when the Arctic high comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 With 500mb heights around 535ish dm it seems pretty low heights for rain...what gives? Is there really that much low level WAA? It's not even that strong of a low and the low to the southeast seems like it would hog the warm moist air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 With 500mb heights around 535ish dm it seems pretty low heights for rain...what gives? Is there really that much low level WAA? It's not even that strong of a low and the low to the southeast seems like it would hog the warm moist air. It's a stubborn marginal boundary layer that's the problem. Winds are out of the SW. Sounding for Lansing at 72 hours. Now if the snow cover extended a ways to the SW, then you could probably get by with frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 With 500mb heights around 535ish dm it seems pretty low heights for rain...what gives? Is there really that much low level WAA? It's not even that strong of a low and the low to the southeast seems like it would hog the warm moist air. Only this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Practically seems like a glorified frontal passage now. I propose next time we wait until within 84 hours to start a thread, because in hindsight the last two look like they are not threadworthy. We've had the unofficial 5 day rule for years...we were in the 5 day timeframe when the thread was created and had multi-model support for a moderate if not big event with differences on location. Every so often it's not going to work out. Still a chance this one has a trick up its sleeve but probably on a small scale if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The best scenario I think would be if this system were to trend back south and have just enough cold air to the north to hang on for some snow accumulation. The 12z and 18z NAM was at least trying to make things look interesting for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We've had the unofficial 5 day rule for years...we were in the 5 day timeframe when the thread was created and had multi-model support for a moderate if not big event with differences on location. Every so often it's not going to work out. Still a chance this one has a trick up its sleeve but probably on a small scale if it happens.I like your optimism but this one is toast, the nonsense in the subtropical isn't allowing this thing to dig and instead of phasing with it we get a glorified frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 EURO is definitely north. Subtropical sucks. Potential would be there if it wasn't for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Won't even be an interesting storm for the MA/northeast. What a loser of a system. I guess the good thing is we know this storm is trash fairly early on, instead of finding out at the last minute. On to the next.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well, 12z Euro was pretty big the other day. Seriously.. With the way the models have been behaving i think it would be very wise not to start a thread till the threat is atleast inside 120hrs and or day 5.. These models have had a hard enough time with 48hr threats.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Turned out to be a turd. It happens. Don't see the harm in having the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 wow north jump was pretty dramatic on the modelling over night. So we go from 3 degrees to rain in 60 hours, then another cold blast, and then what appears to be another rain storm day 8-10. brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Turned out to be a turd. It happens. Don't see the harm in having the discussion. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Models have trended down with QPF and developed that split look with a long narrow dry slot in the middle. As someone who is camping this weekend, I welcome the changes if we cannot have it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GGEM is very dry looking now. Little of that moisture in MI is from the LES today. O, well rather have it stay dry, then have the rain beat the snow cover up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 I like your optimism but this one is toast, the nonsense in the subtropical isn't allowing this thing to dig and instead of phasing with it we get a glorified frontal passage. That's been there as a potential issue all along unfortunately. Doing a dprog/dt, definitely been a trend toward less amplification of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Enjoyed it while it was here. Long term clown maps have been backing off of the snow pack down here also. Guess it's back to frozen mud stalagmites after the next day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks like about a 12 hour period; at night, of 30s and then it's back down again. GFS completely dry for NE IL now. A few members might actually get snow from this. Gosaints, DLL, and Bo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So we go from 3 degrees to rain in 60 hours, then another cold blast, and then what appears to be another rain storm day 8-10. brutal Buckeye with the quote of the winter. This one looked like a dud to me from the start, but it had its moments occasionally. Enjoyed the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z GFS at least tried to do something with the 2nd wave, but even with that unlikely outcome, a lot more in the way of Olympics would still be needed for a favorable solution locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What's this... GFS is trying to show a little mercy and give snow starved SE MI some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The NAM is even better haha What's this... GFS is trying to show a little mercy and give snow starved SE MI some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This map made me laugh...It shows that the snow will fall in the UP, but really, what matters is what's happening in Detroit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This map made me laugh...It shows that the snow will fall in the UP, but really, what matters is what's happening in Detroit... It's Michigan's largest city and has over half the population of Michigan. Shrug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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