Hoosier Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty good agreement on track either side of I-70 in Illinois/Indiana between the GFS/GGEM/NAM. Meanwhile the ECMWF is much farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 would it be weenie of me to wonder if now that this arctic front is settling in and a widespread snow cover has been established.... the trends might continue south?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 On the black & white GGEM panel above...you'd think that with a 988 mb low near Cleveland and a 480 dm thickness contour just north of the ND/MN border, there would be a frigid snowstorm/blizzard on the backside. Yet, there's very little cold sector QPF. It's baffling to me...but I guess you chalk it up to El Nino continuing to do its own thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 On the black & white GGEM panel above...you'd think that with a 988 mb low near Cleveland and a 480 dm thickness contour just north of the ND/MN border, there would be a frigid snowstorm/blizzard on the backside. Yet, there's very little cold sector QPF. It's baffling to me...but I guess you chalk it up to El Nino continuing to do its own thing. there isn't going to be a lot of moisture transport into the old primary low in the lakes with the coastal taking over so aggresively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 there isn't going to be a lot of moisture transport into the old primary low in the lakes with the coastal taking over so aggressively true. What's really unusual however is the strength of the primary low to begin with. Very rare to see a deepening sub 990 low over the eastern lakes transfer like that. Usually they will weaken and transfer well before they make it to that strength and latitude.... or....at that strength and latitude they won't transfer. must be the steroidal block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NAM continuing the deja vu runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still like the more southerly solutions but prospects of a "big" storm are meager. Rounded/lateral nature of the jet stream is not conducive for allowing the northern stream s/w to dig and capture the moisture rich southern wave (which becomes the coastal) and drag it west of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still like the more southerly solutions but prospects of a "big" storm are meager. Rounded/lateral nature of the jet stream is not conducive for allowing the northern stream s/w to dig and capture the moisture rich southern wave (which becomes the coastal) and drag it west of the mountains. Well at least we won't lose much snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well at least we won't lose much snowcover. Nope. Could pick up a few inches with this...but don't look like much more attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty good agreement on track either side of I-70 in Illinois/Indiana between the GFS/GGEM/NAM. Meanwhile the ECMWF is much farther north. It figures the EURO has to be different then all the others. lol NAM looks like a slightly colder version of last Saturday. I'd be more happy to see a repeat of last night, then a couple inches of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nope. Could pick up a few inches with this...but don't look like much more attm. Do you think we warm up much on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 These lows moving through Ohio are killing me because that is the track that NORMALLY gives my area the best snows. Not this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NAM continuing the deja vu runs It's a carbon copy. Looks gross, hopefully it trends far enough south that we don't get any precip at all. I'd prefer that much more to rain, especially now that the ground is FINALLY white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's a carbon copy. Looks gross, hopefully it trends far enough south that we don't get any precip at all. I'd prefer that much more to rain, especially now that the ground is FINALLY white. Totally agree! I'd rather a whiff to the south and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Do you think we warm up much on Friday? Depends on how far to the north the primary low tracks and whether sfc winds shift to the SW. NAM drives the sfc low into MI and we'd probably go a few degrees above freezing. GFS starts to transfer to the coast quicker and we keep and E flow and cooler temps. I'm siding with the latter solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Depends on how far to the north the primary low tracks and whether sfc winds shift to the SW. NAM drives the sfc low into MI and we'd probably go a few degrees above freezing. GFS starts to transfer to the coast quicker and we keep and E flow and cooler temps. I'm siding with the latter solution right now.Ya 18z gfs continues that theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What a pile of garbage the 18z GFS is. Funny thing is we'd probably have a better shot of a true storm with that trail s/w and the descending PV around 102 but because the downstream heights are collapsed from the initial POS system, there's basically no chance of the second one not being OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Will be interesting to watch how the offices around here handle it if we develop some multi-model consistency in a band of snow following a changeover, given what happened with last weekend's system in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Truth is this was never looking like a major snowstorm for anyone in the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Truth is this was never looking like a major snowstorm for anyone in the sub forum. Well, 12z Euro was pretty big the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's a carbon copy. Looks gross, hopefully it trends far enough south that we don't get any precip at all. I'd prefer that much more to rain, especially now that the ground is FINALLY white. This. GFS can't even determine where the low actually ends up though. It bounces all over IL and IN. Hannibal to Pontiac to Evansville. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well, 12z Euro was pretty big the other day.[/quote Aside from a blip run here and there the general consensus was for the stj disturbance to be the main storm to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z GFS ensembles Several members would lead to prolonged snowy periods in the central and western part of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'd prefer a non event to a crappy rain storm, gonna go post on the Mid-Range topic about the other system the 12 and 18Z showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The weekend system will probably be the best shot we've had at a true triple phaser in a long time. But that's not saying much as far as realization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The weekend system will probably be the best shot we've had at a true triple phaser in a long time. But that's not saying much as far as realization. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 RC actually referenced this past weekend's storm in the afternoon LOT afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'll pass on a repeat of last weekend's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 i've really come around on powerball, one of my favorites regs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Sorry for the banter but as a lurker/learner I am enjoying you all having trouble tracking these storms this season. I get to follow along knowing whatever is to come may surprise you all just as much as it surprises me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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