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January 15-16 Storm Threat


Hoosier

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On the black & white GGEM panel above...you'd think that with a 988 mb low near Cleveland and a 480 dm thickness contour just north of the ND/MN border, there would be a frigid snowstorm/blizzard on the backside.  Yet, there's very little cold sector QPF. 

 

It's baffling to me...but I guess you chalk it up to El Nino continuing to do its own thing.

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On the black & white GGEM panel above...you'd think that with a 988 mb low near Cleveland and a 480 dm thickness contour just north of the ND/MN border, there would be a frigid snowstorm/blizzard on the backside.  Yet, there's very little cold sector QPF. 

 

It's baffling to me...but I guess you chalk it up to El Nino continuing to do its own thing.

 

 

there isn't going to be a lot of moisture transport into the old primary low in the lakes with the coastal taking over so aggresively

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there isn't going to be a lot of moisture transport into the old primary low in the lakes with the coastal taking over so aggressively

 

true.  What's really unusual however is the strength of the primary low to begin with.  Very rare to see a deepening sub 990 low over the eastern lakes  transfer like that.  Usually they will weaken and transfer well before they make it to that strength and latitude.... or....at that strength and latitude they won't transfer.

 

must be the steroidal block

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Still like the more southerly solutions but prospects of a "big" storm are meager. Rounded/lateral nature of the jet stream is not conducive for allowing the northern stream s/w to dig and capture the moisture rich southern wave (which becomes the coastal) and drag it west of the mountains.

Well at least we won't lose much snowcover.

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Pretty good agreement on track either side of I-70 in Illinois/Indiana between the GFS/GGEM/NAM.  Meanwhile the ECMWF is much farther north.

 

It figures the EURO has to be different then all the others. lol

 

NAM looks like a slightly colder version of last Saturday.

I'd be more happy to see a repeat of last night, then a couple inches of slop.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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Do you think we warm up much on Friday?

 

Depends on how far to the north the primary low tracks and whether sfc winds shift to the SW. NAM drives the sfc low into MI and we'd probably go a few degrees above freezing. GFS starts to transfer to the coast quicker and we keep and E flow and cooler temps. I'm siding with the latter solution right now.

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Depends on how far to the north the primary low tracks and whether sfc winds shift to the SW. NAM drives the sfc low into MI and we'd probably go a few degrees above freezing. GFS starts to transfer to the coast quicker and we keep and E flow and cooler temps. I'm siding with the latter solution right now.

Ya 18z gfs continues that theme.
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It's a carbon copy. Looks gross, hopefully it trends far enough south that we don't get any precip at all. I'd prefer that much more to rain, especially now that the ground is FINALLY white.

 

This.

GFS can't even determine where the low actually ends up though. It bounces all over IL and IN. Hannibal to Pontiac to Evansville. lol

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