snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 EURO ensemble mean: Near Chicago to off LI Spread maps haven't updated but I'm guessing there's a bit, mostly to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 essentially no chance of meaningful snow this far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Doesn't look too bad. Looks similar to the OP...cold enough for snow for us but not a ton of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks similar to the OP...cold enough for snow for us but not a ton of moisture. Yea that's the thing but considering euro had a snowstorm for us just 24 hours ago tells you there's a lot of moving parts to this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Would be interesting to go back to yesterday's 12z Euro and see what changed (recall it had a big snowstorm). Models have been messy for sure. I know it was like the complete opposite. Tilt of the system I'm guessing. Flatter wave today. Low went farther south on the 12z run yesterday. Thinking it tapped into Gulf Moisture better as it lifts NE. Low clearly strengthened before the coastal low developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Another thing to watch is how much we warm up on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 essentially no chance of meaningful snow this far west Difficult imo to pick out the best threat area. Not sure if I want to be east, north, south. The initial system could get fairly far north before transferring so I'd maybe go with north and hope that the cold sector qpf improves on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS looking a lot like the EURO with the low crossing MO along I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm so confused...GRR NWS says rain for Friday now. Soooo...moderate rain now up here? Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 And then the low comes northeast. Cold air wraps in. Low spins and spins. And we end up with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 ^Could live with that. No confidence in any particular model solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 We're definitely not closer to a solution. About the only thing solid right now is that a low travels across KS, but where it goes from there is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hopefully Hoosier will get some lake enhanced snowfall in da region if this solution pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not sure why but I've become optimistic about this one again this evening. Have a family function to attend on Saturday and there's been an uncanny occurrence of significant weather on those dates (most recently 11/21 but there have been others) so maybe that's a factor lol. Meteorologically, you could make a legitimate case for why it could trend south as has been discussed earlier in this thread. One of the big questions is how far north it gets before it tries to transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 And then the low comes northeast. Cold air wraps in. Low spins and spins. And we end up with this. Looks like a Hooiser specialty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS digging the low, like the NAM does... Little bit colder in the lower lakes at this hour. Wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 New Euro says no storm for anyone. Looking more lame every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 New Euro says no storm for anyone. Looking more lame every run. UKMET was similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 LOT: PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HOWEVER...AND EXPECT THAT CURRENT SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE BEFORE CONVERGING. AT THIS POINT AM LEANING A BIT TOWARD THE GEM/GFS TRACK WHICH WOULD PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.... First and last call: convoluted mess. Repeat of last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 can't wait for more cold rain and a wrap around tenth or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 can't wait for more cold rain and a wrap around tenth or two somehow Chicago will find a way to pull something out of their asses on this.... you guys have the hot hand, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z NAM starting to look very familiar looks just like some of the solutions from last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z NAM starting to look very familiar looks just like some of the solutions from last weekend It actually trended se from the 6z run regarding the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The low is definitely positioned more south... The low moving up the coast looks like no joke too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the trend has been southeast, (on the gfs too), and faster with the front....but it still doesn't matter, it seems no cold sector precip. Although that /\ nam image above kind of looks like it's trying to put some snow on the western flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It seems like the better snowpack we get and the deeper into winter, the more marginal these scenarios become. That late November storm may end up being the best one for many, despite coming after a torch of a November with ultra warm lakes. Who would've guessed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Initial look at 12z GGEM doesn't look too bad. Looks like a decent band in parts of WI/MI with lighter widespread snow elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Initial look at 12z GGEM doesn't look too bad. Looks like a decent band in parts of WI/MI with lighter widespread snow elsewhere. 993 low over S. IL to this \/. Hard to tell what happens with temps and precip in this cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hopefully with the increased snow cover over the region, this situation won't be as marginal as last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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