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January 15-16 Storm Threat


Hoosier

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You can see the effect of the lower heights over eastern Canada on the 12z run of the GFS. Primary low rapidly occludes transfers to the coast. A warm solution still for a lot of folks but the path to turning this storm snowier is evident.

 

gfs gives a lot of the sub  2-4"  as the cold air wraps in and the storm spins over eastern MI.

post-622-0-48734400-1452531414_thumb.png

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Looks like it's going to be difficult to avoid rain here.  Perhaps a rain to snow scenario.  The transfer to the coast is good and bad...the bad is that it would cap the overall potential and the good is that it would allow more areas to salvage some snow. 

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Yeah. Sort of bowling ballish. Not a lot of juice though.

 

common theme with this is the initial track doesn't seem to matter for snowfall chances as there is virtually no cold air precip associated with it.  It's not until the storm hits the block and starts to occlude that snowfall opportunity kicks in.  

 

It's basically backlash snow or no

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common theme with this is the initial track doesn't seem to matter for snowfall chances as there is virtually no cold air precip associated with it.  It's not until the storm hits the block and starts to occlude that snowfall opportunity kicks in.  

 

It's basically backlash snow or no

 

yep

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As bo said, to each their own. And I can assure you that my commute home during rush hour is most definitely increased when it's raining ;)

 

Not as bad as snow of course, but some people don't know how to drive in the rain even. Been out in some foggy, rainy commutes lately and those were longer than they should have been. I know people that intentionally slow down when they car thermometers flashes that ice alert - even if it is like 35. :lol:

 

back to the storm now.

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Just to clarify for alek since he is posting all these 850mb maps and saying cold air :lol:

 

I am talking about the surface cold air, with a fresh snow pack. Models tend to underdo shallow arctic air masses and the effects of snow on the ground falsely warming the surface and considering the warm air advection isn't really that strong, I would lean towards a colder solution at the surface. In turn this would increase the potential of an ice storm on the northern fringes where there is the snow on the ground and the eastern fringes where the colder air is slower to be displaced. Right now it isn't very far from this solution at the surface, most models have us getting to 34-35 locally.

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Just to clarify for alek since he is posting all these 850mb maps and saying cold air :lol:

 

I am talking about the surface cold air, with a fresh snow pack. Models tend to underdo shallow arctic air masses and the effects of snow on the ground falsely warming the surface and considering the warm air advection isn't really that strong, I would lean towards a colder solution at the surface. In turn this would increase the potential of an ice storm on the northern fringes where there is the snow on the ground and the eastern fringes where the colder air is slower to be displaced. Right now it isn't very far from this solution at the surface, most models have us getting to 34-35 locally.

 

 

Another scenario I've been batting around in my head is something that we became familiar with the past couple winters...icing occurring at ground level with temps above freezing.  Wouldn't be surprised to see that happen in some areas, though if there's enough of a warmup the day before then it could negate that possibility. 

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Another scenario I've been batting around in my head is something that we became familiar with the past couple winters...icing occurring at ground level with temps above freezing.  Wouldn't be surprised to see that happen in some areas, though if there's enough of a warmup the day before then it could negate that possibility. 

Yeah that scenario is a bit harder, it hasn't been that cold for long enough yet.

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