RyanDe680 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Going to be a lot of ups and downs on the models with this one. Get ready for a long, wacky week of model watching. Sounds familiar from last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 but the cold airmass..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg It returns like 24 hours later. It does delight me to see my deer will be below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 You can see the effect of the lower heights over eastern Canada on the 12z run of the GFS. Primary low rapidly occludes transfers to the coast. A warm solution still for a lot of folks but the path to turning this storm snowier is evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 some wacky scenarios with that mega blocking....most still find ways to give a large part of the sub some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 You can see the effect of the lower heights over eastern Canada on the 12z run of the GFS. Primary low rapidly occludes transfers to the coast. A warm solution still for a lot of folks but the path to turning this storm snowier is evident. gfs gives a lot of the sub 2-4" as the cold air wraps in and the storm spins over eastern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 gfs gives a lot of the sub 2-4" as the cold air wraps in and the storm spins over eastern MI. It wouldnt take much for the next couple of runs to start sinking that pinky goodness southwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like it's going to be difficult to avoid rain here. Perhaps a rain to snow scenario. The transfer to the coast is good and bad...the bad is that it would cap the overall potential and the good is that it would allow more areas to salvage some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It wouldnt take much for the next couple of runs to start sinking that pinky goodness southwards. ggem looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 ggem looks similar Yeah. Sort of bowling ballish. Not a lot of juice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yeah. Sort of bowling ballish. Not a lot of juice though. common theme with this is the initial track doesn't seem to matter for snowfall chances as there is virtually no cold air precip associated with it. It's not until the storm hits the block and starts to occlude that snowfall opportunity kicks in. It's basically backlash snow or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's basically backlash snow or no Which pretty much never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 common theme with this is the initial track doesn't seem to matter for snowfall chances as there is virtually no cold air precip associated with it. It's not until the storm hits the block and starts to occlude that snowfall opportunity kicks in. It's basically backlash snow or no yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yeah, that's what we're down to this winter -- outside the lake belts -- salvaging junk. I'm officially at 0.7" on the winter. At this point, I want that futility record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Quite the little puzzle. Maybe the initial energy is being sampled to much for a phase and instead, is just a reset switch. Then another wave of pac energy comes in when the pv dives. The UKMET looks slightly flirty with that at 120hrs, though it still tries to phase the lead. I'm lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yeah, that's what we're down to this winter -- outside the lake belts -- salvaging junk. I'm officially at 0.7" on the winter. At this point, I want that futility record. I'm at 2" for the winter IMBY here in Toronto. I feel you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 At least the back end snow would be fairly lengthy in duration, a full 24 hours or so on the 12Z GFS as the low hangs around without completely transferring to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 As bo said, to each their own. And I can assure you that my commute home during rush hour is most definitely increased when it's raining Not as bad as snow of course, but some people don't know how to drive in the rain even. Been out in some foggy, rainy commutes lately and those were longer than they should have been. I know people that intentionally slow down when they car thermometers flashes that ice alert - even if it is like 35. back to the storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Seems like that low that comes down in the NW flow influences it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm at 2" for the winter IMBY here in Toronto. I feel you. What is your average snowfall annually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 What is your average snowfall annually? 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just to clarify for alek since he is posting all these 850mb maps and saying cold air I am talking about the surface cold air, with a fresh snow pack. Models tend to underdo shallow arctic air masses and the effects of snow on the ground falsely warming the surface and considering the warm air advection isn't really that strong, I would lean towards a colder solution at the surface. In turn this would increase the potential of an ice storm on the northern fringes where there is the snow on the ground and the eastern fringes where the colder air is slower to be displaced. Right now it isn't very far from this solution at the surface, most models have us getting to 34-35 locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Low gets transferred to the coast after it heads through the OV. So not really a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just to clarify for alek since he is posting all these 850mb maps and saying cold air I am talking about the surface cold air, with a fresh snow pack. Models tend to underdo shallow arctic air masses and the effects of snow on the ground falsely warming the surface and considering the warm air advection isn't really that strong, I would lean towards a colder solution at the surface. In turn this would increase the potential of an ice storm on the northern fringes where there is the snow on the ground and the eastern fringes where the colder air is slower to be displaced. Right now it isn't very far from this solution at the surface, most models have us getting to 34-35 locally. Another scenario I've been batting around in my head is something that we became familiar with the past couple winters...icing occurring at ground level with temps above freezing. Wouldn't be surprised to see that happen in some areas, though if there's enough of a warmup the day before then it could negate that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Another scenario I've been batting around in my head is something that we became familiar with the past couple winters...icing occurring at ground level with temps above freezing. Wouldn't be surprised to see that happen in some areas, though if there's enough of a warmup the day before then it could negate that possibility. Yeah that scenario is a bit harder, it hasn't been that cold for long enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 A lot of spread on the GEFS at 120 hours. Several members fairly far south though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro a complete whiff for Iowa/northwest IL northwestward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro a complete whiff for Iowa/northwest IL northwestward.Don't like the look of most the 12z EPS ensemble members SLP position Friday into Saturday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Typically, when I see the Euro surface map showing a 996 mb low between St. Louis and Quincy I think snowstorm. This time the precip map is bare, especially in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Would be interesting to go back to yesterday's 12z Euro and see what changed (recall it had a big snowstorm). Models have been messy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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