Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 the pna ridge is getting kicked in the teeth. Which one, there isn't a negative PNA and the positive PNA ridge out west should prompt troughing in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 EURO 96 hours. EURO holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'd say it crept north but splitting hairs at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'd say it crept north but splitting hairs at this point. Yeah it is north, it also dislodges the cold air very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Here is the 12z for comparison. Slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm not throwing the towel in until at least Tuesday... I don't like the "trend" north but I don't think the dislodging of the cold air that quickly and the pull of the low to the north is the most probable solution at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol at all the but it can't go north because of the cold...that airmass is already well on it's way out with rapidly rising heights in the plains. It's going to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol at all the but it can't go north because of the cold...that airmass is already well on it's way out with rapidly rising heights in the plains. It's going to cut. duly noted. I'd say the 0z EURO/UKIE aren't really cutting the storm verbatim. 0z GEFS to a man south of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Anything is possible. But have we not learned anything after this past weekend storm? Lol nothing will be set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Anything is possible. But have we not learned anything after this past weekend storm? Lol nothing will be set in stone yet. At least this one is only five days out. Waiting the euro ensemble.No doubt another last minute shift and some happy and others not so happy.Amazing how it appears the east gets screwed again. Used to live in Midland.Wondering if this is the weekend to visit old friends or maybe believe in the GFS and stay in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Synoptically different, but looks like it could be the same sensible weather results here as this past weekend. Warm sector rain with a little snow to end it and then much colder. Wash rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Synoptically different, but looks like it could be the same sensible weather results here as this past weekend. Warm sector rain with a little snow to end it and then much colder. Wash rinse, repeat. Story of winter 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 looks like junk across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Even the warm, rainy solutions aren't that warm and cold quickly returns. With a nice snowpack finally in place, i will be hoping for junk if it's not a snowstorm. Keep the rain away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 lol @ snowpack fetishism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Even the warm, rainy solutions aren't that warm and cold quickly returns. With a nice snowpack finally in place, i will be hoping for junk if it's not a snowstorm. Keep the rain away. A nice snowpack will be TBD after tonight's/tomorrow's event. 3" of snow OTG is not s "nice snowpack" it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 lol @ snowpack fetishismLol ok then try this one on for size. Even if there was no snow, I get NOTHING about the "at least it's active" mantra that some have for 30s and rain. Extended commutes & bone chilling dampness? Give me dry & cold any day over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 A nice snowpack will be TBD after tonight's/tomorrow's event. 3" of snow OTG is not s "nice snowpack" it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol ok then try this one on for size. Even if there was no snow, I get NOTHING about the "at least it's active" mantra that some have for 30s and rain. Extended commutes & bone chilling dampness? Give me dry & cold any day over that.we need to stop trying to justify why we like the weather we do... it's like chocolate milk, idky I like it I just do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 we need to stop trying to justify why we like the weather we do... it's like chocolate milk, idky I like it I just do. agree which was why i was so excited to see a dedicated snowpack thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol ok then try this one on for size. Even if there was no snow, I get NOTHING about the "at least it's active" mantra that some have for 30s and rain. Extended commutes & bone chilling dampness? Give me dry & cold any day over that. Commutes are not that extended in cold rain. An inch of snow on the other hand? Can be horrendous, hence like Powerball a lot of us are 'go big or go home' on snow events. This is not saying I like cold rain, I despise it, but still probably better than cold and dry unless there's a lot of snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Commutes are not that extended in cold rain. An inch of snow on the other hand? Can be horrendous, hence like Powerball a lot of us are 'go big or go home' on snow events. This is not saying I like cold rain, I despise it, but still probably better than cold and dry unless there's a lot of snowpack.As bo said, to each their own. And I can assure you that my commute home during rush hour is most definitely increased when it's raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Commutes are not that extended in cold rain. An inch of snow on the other hand? Can be horrendous, hence like Powerball a lot of us are 'go big or go home' on snow events. This is not saying I like cold rain, I despise it, but still probably better than cold and dry unless there's a lot of snowpack. Same here Cold rain >> Deep freeze I wouldn't have said that 2 years ago, but after the last two winters... I've already sick of arctic intrusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 JB finally admits this morning... ...the speed and strength of the pac jet is basically f*cking everything up. That being said, he's still nailing the 500h pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 JB finally admits this morning... ...the speed and strength of the pac jet is basically f*cking everything up. it's a mega nino, so yeah....that jet has no problem pushing out any cold air that tries to establish over the continent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 it's a mega nino, so yeah....that jet has no problem pushing out any cold air that tries to establish over the continent True, it's not the same pattern as last year, but... Nothing will resemble Decembers pattern for the rest of the winter. January will end up normal. +/- normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 but the cold airmass..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 True, it's not the same pattern as last year, but... Nothing will resemble Decembers pattern for the rest of the winter. January will end up normal. +/- normal.nino is having her say, but this is clearly going to be a more wintry month than we had in '83 or '98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 For the record, my argument for a more southerly track is not the depth of the cold air, but the placement of the downstream blocking. The right H5 pattern can dislodge cold of any magnitude. And if a whole piece of the PV rotates back and phases early with main s/w like the NAM's doing at 84, then a much warmer solution is possible. But for that to happen everything is going to have to be timed perfect. I think a warmer solution is a "thread the needle" solution, and though it's currently being advertised by the NCEP models and GGEM, I'd still say it's improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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