Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 With blocking that strong it would be hard to cut especially with the block being in eastern Canada. As buckeye noted the Para Euro has it tracking along the river, I'd buy that much more than cutting. Well, my post was partially tongue in cheek. Will have to see what Canada looks like and how much room there is to cut as we get closer. I'd probably lean against a true cutter that cuts through the lakes and into Canada but we are a good 5 days out so things can be altered with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well, my post was partially tongue in cheek. Will have to see what Canada looks like and how much room there is to cut as we get closer. I'd probably lean against a true cutter that cuts through the lakes and into Canada but we are a good 5 days out so things can be altered with this setup.True, and my commentary is purely looking at the models right now, if it changes 5 days from now then anything is possible. I would still say it would be hard to shunt out a cold airmass at the surface like what we are expecting over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 DT has a couple good posts here about "index chasing" http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47565-on-the-jan-17-18-secs-mecs-threat/?p=3844395 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 DT has a couple good posts here about "index chasing" http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47565-on-the-jan-17-18-secs-mecs-threat/?p=3844395 Yeah, just so I am clear about blocking, I am talking about the physical block in eastern Canada not a teleconnection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Hard to believe it will push out this deep of an arctic airmass with fresh snow cover, that setup screams prolonged ice storm. Agree that the fresh snow pack and this week's artic air mass should keep this from cutting straight north. The 18z gfs is smoking Crack imho. I don't think there will be a semi accurate modeling of this storm until at least Tuesday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I will follow this new storm with interest but remember that the Jan. 9/10 storm gave me nearly 3 inches of unexpected snow when the low moved farther east than progged by models most of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Gonna come down to that s/w retrograding around the polar vortex. Essential for that to come down and phase with the southern stream component. It disappears/timing is off and it's suppression city. Not really worried about an upper lakes cutter. 18z GFS is an illustration in how to come north. I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right? After the muddied and disjointed way it handled today's storm in the same time-frame, I'm not too concerned about any particular solution the GFS is spitting out. Just need to focus on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right? It's only one run, and it changes over and we get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I highly doubt this system will cut. Snow cover is increasing and there will a large reservoir of cold for this system to work with. An west to east track is most likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I highly doubt this system will cut. Snow cover is increasing and there will a large reservoir of cold for this system to work with. An west to east track is most likely imo. it'd be nice if we saw a bowling ball scenario been awhile since we've seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 it'd be nice if we saw a bowling ball scenario been awhile since we've seen one. That's what I would love to see. I think if anything the storm will trend south a bit and this area might actually be on the northern fringe of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most. It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most. It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again. Euro GFS battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most. It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again. Seems too aggressive given there's a stationary "50/50" type low downstream but it does turn the s/w neg tilt pretty quickly so I guess it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 How can the GFS be cutting the system so far west with a -AO and -NAO?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wonder what happens between 120 and 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most. It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again. I'd really be shocked if it dislodged this air mass that fast. Crazier things have happened but to go from -15 to near 0 at 850mb from hour 72 to 96 with just 25kts of advection at 850, just seems a bit unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wonder what happens between 120 and 144 136_100.gif 495_100.gif I'll let you know once WB comes out, so far its at 66hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 How can the GFS be cutting the system so far west with a -AO and -NAO?! El Nino influence? .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yea stick a fork in this one. Trends have been way too much to not get concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 El Nino influence? .. All I can think of is, isn't this a great pattern for East Coast snowstorms? I can understand the strong southern stream, but that should take it further east. The EURO and JMA camp makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yea stick a fork in this one. Trends have been way too much to not get concerned. What are you talking about, what trends? Two GFS runs that don't make much sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 What are you talking about, what trends? Two GFS runs that don't make much sense? The gem just came on board. Wouldn't surprise me if the euro did the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 s/w quickly goes negative tilt on the GFS as it emerges into the Plains. You would need a better block to force it south in that scenario IF that's what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 We need to see the ensembles before jumping to any conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 990mb across srn IL on the GEM by Friday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 s/w quickly goes negative tilt on the GFS as it emerges into the Plains. You would need a better block to force it south in that scenario IF that's what happens. Less nrn stream influence too with just the srn wave comign out, then you have some kicker wave flying in over the four corners at 114hrs that helps kick it out even more and carves out the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Going to be a lot of ups and downs on the models with this one. Get ready for a long, wacky week of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 126 985mb Indy 132 983mb Lake Erie just north of Cleveland 138 980mb Near Toronto with a 978mb transfer near Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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