Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Seeing general model agreement on a potentially significant storm affecting the region during this timeframe, though details on synoptic evolution a bit up in the air with some runs even trying to drop in a chunk of the polar vortex in for a possible phase. Getting into the 5 day window and despite some disagreement, threat looks legit enough at this point so discuss away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well Hoosier beat me by 5 minutes and I guess that's okay since he started the November snowstorm thread I'll take the Euro and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Euro verbatim is 1.0" to 1.5" QPF for northern IL, highest closer to the lake and of course a Geos max of 15" at 10:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 As far as trying to phase with a lobe of the polar vortex, the 12z GGEM is probably the best/closest example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Would love to see the GGEM get on board. Really hoping the EURO is onto something good this time! Going to be cautious for 2-3 days though. GGEM with the stronger coastal low right now. Love this look though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It's going to be a busy week for us weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Cold and dry, warm and wet. Would like to see this pattern break at some point. My patience is running thin with this garbage winter lol. But none the less, glad to have things to track. And yes Hoosier, GGEM looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I really wish you guys could have waited until like Wednesday to start this thread! Now my whole week is going to be shot following this eye candy........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Eastern half of the sub would seem to benefit from this system. Best threat we've had so far this winter, most of the action has been to the west. Finally the trough has set up farther towards east coast. Just need to hope this doesn't end up being an east coast storm. Bit of a weak high over Cuba to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 no matter where this ends up and how significant it is or isn't, chances are we won't know until 48 hours out. Even this current storm had surprises up it's sleeve within 24 hours. at any rate the ensemble low placement looks further south, kind of with that same dual low set up/transfer models were showing days ago for this period. (from wxbell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Eastern half of the sub would seem to benefit from this system. Best threat we've had so far this winter, most of the action has been to the west. Finally the trough has set up farther towards east coast. Just need to hope this doesn't end up being an east coast storm. Bit of a weak high over Cuba to keep an eye on. Gonna come down to that s/w retrograding around the polar vortex. Essential for that to come down and phase with the southern stream component. It disappears/timing is off and it's suppression city. Not really worried about an upper lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Gonna come down to that s/w retrograding around the polar vortex. Essential for that to come down and phase with the southern stream component. It disappears/timing is off and it's suppression city. Not really worried about an upper lakes cutter. Would bad timing mean a clipper for the Great Lakes and a storm for East Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Would bad timing mean a clipper for the Great Lakes and a storm for East Coast? Yeah, that's a possibility. UKIE is demonstrative of that solution: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 JMA has the storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1.2" final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1.2" final call Getting cocky now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 East coast is due for a bomb, especially in an El Niño pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 18z GFS is an illustration in how to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Last night's 00z Euro has an IL/IN/OH crusher. Woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Prolonged event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 18z GFS is an illustration in how to come north.Hard to believe it will push out this deep of an arctic airmass with fresh snow cover, that setup screams prolonged ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 para euro is arkansas to WV.... yet another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 it's going to cut west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Hard to believe it will push out this deep of an arctic airmass with fresh snow cover, that setup screams prolonged ice storm. Yeah, the 850mb temps wouldn't need much to turn that into a MASSIVE ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GGEM had the best ideaAny particular reason you say this or just stabbing in the dark as usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 it's going to cut westNot with the block and confluence over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 but but the AO says it can't cut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Split the PV and than pushed it down the middle of the country. No other model does that.So why is that the the best handle? Doesn't make much sense to say it has the best handle when it shows a highly complex solution that rarely happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 but but the AO says it can't cut! ao.sprd2.gif With blocking that strong it would be hard to cut especially with the block being in eastern Canada. As buckeye noted the Para Euro has it tracking along the river, I'd buy that much more than cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I never said it has the best handle. No other model supports it and it probably won't happen in that way. Looks like a classic AO beginning to spike while the next wave of pacific energy cuts through the lakes. GGEM had the best ideaActually you did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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