HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hoping for some sexy windexy squalls TuesdayAS TEMPS CRASH BEHIND THE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...COASTAL PLAINWILL ALSO LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURSBEFORE ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING. USING MODEST RATIOS...ANDBLENDED QPF BETWEEN 0.1-0.25 INCHES...WILL YIELD 1-2 INCHES OFSNOW IN NW MA /WHERE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED/ AND LESS ACCUM AS ONEAPPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN. NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANTADVISORIES...BUT WITH UPPER PERCENTILES ACROSS NRN MA APPROACHING4 INCHES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OFFORECAST CYCLES.ONE CONCERN...MODEST LLJ 30-40 KT AT H85...WITH INVERTED-VSOUNDINGS LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE...COULD YIELD A RISK FOR BRIEFSNOW SQUALLS ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THEWORCESTER HILLS AND NW MA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV WRF SNOWSQUALL PARAMETER. THIS MAY IMPACT THE TUE EVENING COMMUTE FORTHOSE IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looking good for warning criteria? Isn't that a bit of an understatement at 2" liquid? And is that a .4" bullseye right over Tolland? If you get that to verify... methinks it is a little overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If only it were cold enough this could be fun for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If only it were cold enough this could be fun for BOS. It shouldn't be all down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty. That nice 40-50 mm jack is centered about 15 miles NNE from my snowstake. Means that it won't actually be there, of course, but it's looking good for warning criteria. Jesus that's a lot of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Jesus that's a lot of QPF. About 4 times as much as on the 12z gfs, which has AUG/RUM in the .4 to .5 range. Trying to curb one's enthusiasm (to plagiarize a phrase.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like 2-3" here. Not very exciting, but I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like 1-2" here according to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like GYX is going to go another shift due to the uncertainty before making a decision on advisory or warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME350 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAYNIGHT AND BRINGING A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREA. THERE REMAINSUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WITHIN IT SNOWFALLRATES MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. AS A RESULT...THEPOTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAYMORNING.MEZ019-020-120500-/O.EXA.KGYX.WS.A.0001.160112T2200Z-160113T1500Z/INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON...AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS350 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITORTHE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like 1-2" here according to the GFS You will struggle for a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 You will struggle for a coating. I think it will trend snowier for him. Just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like GYX is going to go another shift due to the uncertainty before making a decision on advisory or warning Day shift be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Day shift be like Forecast from GYX?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Day shift be like LOL yeah let the overnight guys either kick the field goal or shank it like Walsh did for Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If only it were cold enough this could be fun for BOS.I don't see any reason why we can't at least whiten the ground and maybe grab an inch. Total win considering what we've had until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Forecast from GYX?? More like we're trying to avoid this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I actually think sometimes we have to be careful, especially when Ekster and I have similar thoughts. It's easy to convince ourselves we have high confidence in those situations. So it ends up being 3 or 4 AFDs in a row saying the same things, as we bounce day and night shift thoughts, yet we're still too far away for 80% confident headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 What a QPF stripe tomorrow evening in eastern areas. That's almost convective looking on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 WHOA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 WHOA!! Rhea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That's pretty juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That's like .75" QPF in a narrow area. Seems a bit overdone, though I agree it will have some convective elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That's a nice general 1-3 for many areas outside of SE MA. Save for the 5-6" near Walpole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Take em up mets !! Up up and away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Take em up mets !! Up up and away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Take em up mets !! Up up and away I'll stick with my 1-2" for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 That is total qpf, This is the snow version, Still gets some with a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That's a nice general 1-3 for many areas outside of SE MA. Save for the 5-6" near Walpole. Yeah I'm liking the general trend on this one the past 24h...and they often sneak better in the final 24h too when the vortmax goes south of us. We'll see though...wouldn't shock me if there was a surprise band of S+ for an hour or two somewhere that gives some 3"+ amounts. That vortmax is key though...need it south and to stay a bit consolidated. Most guidance shows this sans the GFS which continues to be a disorganized mess with the strongest piece going well NW...which is why it keeps giving us the weakest solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That is total qpf, This is the snow version, Still gets some with a few inches It's going to be basically all snow for most NW of BOS-PVD...that precip algorithm is probably pessimistic near BOS...esp essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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