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Moderate/Heavy Snow Possible Tuesday/Wednesday 01/12-01/13


dryslot

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Man when will get snow? I know it's not supposed to be a big year for snow on the coastal plain but the models have shown a very good pattern which throws out all of the forecasts for a bad winter if a good storm can happen, OceanStWx, what about that second clipper it's on the models

I get the feeling.  A lot of us feel the same way.  Not sure it helps, but there are some of us who live in places that average three times what you average and we have nothing to show for this winter either.  Many of us also largely missed out last year.  And the year before that too.

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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN AT LEAST A MODERATE IMPACT SNWFL EVENT

FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED.

 

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A POTENT S/WV TROF WILL

CROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THE TROF RACING THRU

THE GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED CROSSING NEW

ENGLAND...LEADING TO EXPLOSIVE STRENGTHENING OF LOW PRES IN THE

GULF OF ME. THE TROF PASSAGE ITSELF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD

SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES

COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

 

AS UPPER TROF AXIS ALIGNS NW TO SE...THE SFC MAY TAKE ON A BIT OF

AN INVERTED TROF LOOK NW OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES. BOUNDARY LAYER

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONSHORE...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE TOWARDS

THE COAST. THIS RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E AIR BEING DRAGGED NWD

HELPS DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. THEN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES

WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES...THE COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS COULD

LEAD TO A SHORT DURATION...FOCUSED...INTENSE SNWFL RATE EVENT. ALL

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF PRECIP

LIFTING NE ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON WHERE IT FORMS.

FOR NOW ANYWHERE ALONG OUR COAST SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE

FORECAST...BUT MOST LIKELY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FROM PWM ON NEWD.

HAVE INCREASED POP TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS...AND INCREASED

QPF AND AS A RESULT OF THAT SNWFL AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT

WX TODAY...NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT A WINTER

STORM WATCH IS A POSSIBILITY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. BOUNDARY

LAYER MAY WARM A LITTLE TOO MUCH NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SO

TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS

ALOFT...THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEEMS ENTIRELY

PLAUSIBLE AND REASONABLE.

 

STRONG CAA AND GUSTY WLY FLOW FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE LATE WED. UPSLOPE

SN SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MTNS. BEYOND MIDWEEK THE PATTERN

REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE...ERN TROF...AND ACTIVE

SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH SPLIT FLOW AND PIECES OF POLAR VORTEX ENERGY

PINWHEELING ACROSS THE NRN TIER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS WAFFLING QUITE

A BIT RUN TO RUN. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT AS THE S/WV TROFS

CROSS THE AREA SN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY...BUT THERE REMAINS

CHANCES THAT PHASING INTO A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM OR TWO OCCURS

AND BRINGS A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT.
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