CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 BTV WRF literally starts it near TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 BTV WRF literally starts it near TOL. Yeah could easily get shut out here while ORH rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah - we'll see. I think things look better farther east. We're pretty much waiting for the last minute blossoming of the precip shield. It certainly could happen 30 or 40 miles east of where the NAM is showing which would basically cause a shut out for most of my forecast area. It's a hard forecast because if the NAM is right it becomes a high impact event - if other guidance is right it's NBD. Lots of uncertainty. Discounting the RGEM which has been steadfast? Or are you using it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Which is why 1-3 has been a good forecast since we identified this threat. You have been right on this; actually we have, as we have both been promoting this since Thursday. Some other too like Steve. This is the kind of thing a weenie can sniff out with our pattern recognition skills. Sometimes the weenies have a sense based on history and tracking snow for 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You have been right on this; actually we have, as we have both been promoting this since Thursday. Some other too like Steve. This is the kind of thing a weenie can sniff out with our pattern recognition skills. Sometimes the weenies have a sense based on history and tracking snow for 40 years. You guys are a riot. For SNE I said C-1" with best chance 1-2 ORH on northeast. Maybe you can add an inch to that. Pat yourself on the back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You have been right on this; actually we have, as we have both been promoting this since Thursday. Some other too like Steve. This is the kind of thing a weenie can sniff out with our pattern recognition skills. Sometimes the weenies have a sense based on history and tracking snow for 40 years. I mean..hey maybe Ryan is right and it's a whiff for CT....but I have been around long enough that these kinds of events with an ULL going south of LI..generally drop some accumulating snow in some fashion or another. Maybe this one doesn't. But I like having the RGEM on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 BOX website. Not sure why it is different. @NWSBostonWe are having a few problems this morning with the snow graphics generation on our web page. Please bear with us as we work out the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You guys are a riot. For SNE I said C-1" with best chance 1-2 ORH on northeast. Maybe you can add an inch to that. Pat yourself on the back! You guys are a riot. For SNE I said C-1" with best chance 1-2 ORH on northeast. Maybe you can add an inch to that. Pat yourself on the back! LOL, I am always happy to do that. All I'm saying is that from late last week this looked like something that would trend better and drop snow. For me it felt like it And it has done that. 50 miles to my NE has a good shot a warning snows. Unfortunately I think 4 would be a stretch for me, and Kevin is on the line a bit. But geez, all I am saying is this kind of thing that was apparent last week was fresh cold air, a clipper style vort that was strong, and what looked like a little blocking from the Sunday storm. That was why I got interested. Don't think the blocking worked out so well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 You have been right on this; actually we have, as we have both been promoting this since Thursday. Some other too like Steve. This is the kind of thing a weenie can sniff out with our pattern recognition skills. Sometimes the weenies have a sense based on history and tracking snow for 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I mean..hey maybe Ryan is right and it's a whiff for CT....but I have been around long enough that these kinds of events with an ULL going south of LI..generally drop some accumulating snow in some fashion or another. Maybe this one doesn't. But I like having the RGEM on our sideRyan is definitely right, since all he did was outline possibilities and describe locations for which there is model disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It is true. Last Thursday I said we'd have an overperformer (compared to modelling then) on Tuesday because the Sunday storm would leave room, provide cold air and maybe slow it down a bit. That is somewhat true. I also said that I thought we'd have a storm on the weekend because the Tues-Wed clipper would blow up and provide some blocking. That is looking to be generally true. That was just weenie pattern recognition. It took my mini-melt to clear my head and allow my weeniESP to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I know that this is a big nothing, but I'm kinda excited for this clipper flipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It is true. Last Thursday I said we'd have an overperformer (compared to modelling then) on Tuesday because the Sunday storm would leave room, provide cold air and maybe slow it down a bit. That is somewhat true. I also said that I thought we'd have a storm on the weekend because the Tues-Wed clipper would blow up and provide some blocking. That is looking to be generally true. That was just weenie pattern recognition. It took my mini-melt to clear my head and allow my weeniESP to return.Well in a week we've gone from 1" modeled to 2-3". I'm not sure how much of a win for us that really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I know that this is a big nothing, but I'm kinda excited for this clipper flipper. Seconded. Might be a fun couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well in a week we've gone from 1" modeled to 2-3". I'm not sure how much of a win for us that really is. How could you not see that coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I like when folks are high fiving with still partly cloudy conds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something is definitely up with the box maps, the table on the winter front page doesn't line up either. Sometimes I forget they are a government agency. See my post in the banter thread, there are fundamental issues with those snow probability maps. There is a reason why we have them labeled as experimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 See my post in the banter thread, there are fundamental issues with those snow probability maps. There is a reason why we have them labeled as experimental. Hmm. Interesting, must be a technical issue across the board. Still though, and not a dig at you personally, but if they are experimental then don't you think it makes sense to also include the forecaster's map (like the one box put on twitter) on the main winter weather page of the nws regional office somewhere? Right now, the "experimental" one is the only one that you can easily find on the website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Lightning showing up NW of Buffalo on the north shore of Lake Erie...good dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I went 10 to 15 cms in halifax before the warm up. The city proper probably won't hold onto frozen too long but I am close to the airport, 20 miles inland so might squeak in the warning minimum. Any amount is a win with that track and an ESE wind direction. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Spiking the ball at the 1 yd line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The initial band is really impressive in E MA on the HRRR. Kind of meh in central areas. Starts to blow up as it moves past ORH. HRRRX really blowing up the 1+/hr rates over eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hmm. Interesting, must be a technical issue across the board. Still though, and not a dig at you personally, but if they are experimental then don't you think it makes sense to also include the forecaster's map (like the one box put on twitter) on the main winter weather page of the nws regional office somewhere? Right now, the "experimental" one is the only one that you can easily find on the website. The "most likely" is the forecaster generated snowfall. The min/max maps are the ones that are generated from our maps and the WPC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I would continue spiking the ball. Only if ORH on east/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 How many microbars of lift make you start considering the possibility of thundersnow? Also, lapse rates look pretty darn solid. Not quite on par with last Valentine's Day, but 7+ ain't bad. It's not necessarily a certain amount of lift, but when you see intense values it may point towards convective nature versus typical lift. You want instability first and foremost. So lapse rates are a big deal, theta-e decreasing with height, sometimes you'll even see some CAPE show up on forecast maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hancock Co Maine in downeast still has many without power witj restoration time of 10pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Check out that omega in the SGZ on the HRRR. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's not necessarily a certain amount of lift, but when you see intense values it may point towards convective nature versus typical lift. You want instability first and foremost. So lapse rates are a big deal, theta-e decreasing with height, sometimes you'll even see some CAPE show up on forecast maps. Great. Thanks very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 13z HRRR total precip through 4z tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 13z HRRR total precip through 4z tonight: hrrr_t_precip_neng_16.png Looks good for Mitch's place in SVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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