CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I disagree, its not scaring people its public safety. Prudence and past experience says worst timing high impact as mideled anyways I know what you mean...but I wouldn't cause the whole state to take a half day either. If people have evening plans, may be worth thinking about different alternatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Doesn't always hold true for the hi-res stuff, but this is one situation where they can score some points. The really potent shortwave with dynamic development can lead the global suite astray sometimes. So it wouldn't surprise me if the RGEM or NAM came close to the end result, even though this event was towards the end of their ranges. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What makes the potential dangerous, is that you may get a quick inch or two in 1 hour...so those rates will accumulate on the roads even at 32-33F and then 90 minutes later you are 27F and falling. That flash freeze scenario is the worst possible for the roads. Almost nobody will be prepared for that if it happens tomorrow. Half inch snow-covering flash frozen ice is absolutely most dangerous winter driving condition because can't appreciate the ice under the snow. Had a fender bender on that a few years ago. Car in front of me lost control, I tried to avoid and skid about 20 feet, slow motion almost like the steam roller scene in Austin Powers, and nothing we could do to stop a hit. The accident could be reconstructed by the tire tracks in the snow, and there was clear ice underneath. Accidents just like that all over Boston that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Commute from Bridgewater to Taunton around 6 tomorrow evening could be nightmarish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I know what you mean...but I wouldn't cause the whole state to take a half day either. If people have evening plans, may be worth thinking about different alternatives. I told my friends west of you that early out at 3 might be smart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 The max potential snow map that the GYX WFO has lines up pretty well with the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The max potential snow map that the GYX WFO has lines up pretty well with the RGEM I may have to rant about those maps tomorrow. Too late to get into it now. I like the idea, but the execution leaves something to be desired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 I may have to rant about those maps tomorrow. Too late to get into it now. I like the idea, but the execution leaves something to be desired. So you had a voice but not the finger on the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 So you had a voice but not the finger on the trigger I just think the fundamental math, or logic maybe, behind it is flawed. Doesn't say what we truly want it to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That's a Livermore, Wilton, Aug, Farmington Jack I like my uncle's spot in Vienna at 700 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 I like my uncle's spot in Vienna at 700 ft. Yes, Good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Harvey going with 0-1" SE of BOS. C-2" NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GGEM is still pretty bullish for eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just looked at RGEM... what's the mechanism for that intense band over eastern-northeastern MA 3Z Wed? I'm guessing some kind of convergence once circulation around the second low center forms, but not sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just looked at RGEM... what's the mechanism for that intense band over eastern-northeastern MA 3Z Wed? I'm guessing some kind of convergence once circulation around the second low center forms, but not sure... Yes, it is the combo of LL convergence as the secondary develops and pooling of unstable LL lapse rates. It's almost like a squall line developing for thunderstorms in the summer. But in this case, the ocean helps with LL moisture advection and steepening of the LL lapse rates rather than hurting the convection like in summer. Being further east also helps with being closer to where the secondary sfc reflection is developing so the winds are more backed creating the lifting mechanism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes, it is the combo of LL convergence as the secondary develops and pooling of unstable LL lapse rates. It's almost like a squall line developing for thunderstorms in the summer. But in this case, the ocean helps with LL moisture advection and steepening of the LL lapse rates rather than hurting the convection like in summer. Being further east also helps with being closer to where the secondary sfc reflection is developing so the winds are more backed creating the lifting mechanism Thanks Yeah was looking for evidence of that with low level winds or lapse rates but weatherbell (for RGEM) / twisterdata (for GFS) doesn't have enough resolution. Could make a fun little nowcast event tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I wouldn't be shocked if someone saw 4"....esp N ORH county over to N Essex....but I certainly wouldn't be predicting 4" for any one location. We'll see if this vortmax has one more tick south in it...it would actually make a pretty substantial difference for some areas if it does. OTOH, if it ticks a bit weaker and NW (like the GFS), then it would be a much less intriguing event for SNE. Historically I ride meso models here. Pretty consistent signals from the meso all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 0z Euro says meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Warnings up in my hood. 6-10" of mash. We take. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Definitely gonna be interesting later. Soundings are impressive. Can't rule out a clap or two of thunder. I think even Kevin will pull 2+. Not sure if this area. Hoping for 1 anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Will this come in like a wall? Seems pretty potent if short lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Definitely gonna be interesting later. Soundings are impressive. Can't rule out a clap or two of thunder. I think even Kevin will pull 2+. Not sure if this area. Hoping for 1 anyways. Yeah man..mesos look wild this afternoon. This has the look of a whole bunch of people in a general region reporting thunder at the same time. Gonna be some 3-4 inch amounts and they could really be just about anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NAM is damn warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 6z rgem really likes Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Feeling 2-4" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 344 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>012-026-RIZ001-003-121700- HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA- EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD... MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...WEST GREENWICH 344 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 ...A PERIOD OF SNOW AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... AN AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR BUT ENDING AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A SLOW COMMUTE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. $$ KJC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 6z rgem really likes Kevin. Looks like 2-4 from NE CT up near you. 4km NAM is wild looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't see 4". Maybe if someone somehow had a training echo or something. But could be 2-3 in spots. This is zipping right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not sure where some folks getting those awful maps..anyway..Here's the latest BOX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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