CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I forgot about the Ocean event. Well other than that ..the rest have not. I don't think even Hunch has..that has accumulated No, the other event had snow too. I had snow in that, it just was not much. And north of Boston had at least 1-3 all snow before IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:14 PM, CoastalWx said: I guess the difference is that I don't think a lot of areas get to 3-4. It's not worth getting excited 4-5 days out with a system that has an upside of an inch or so more than predicted. For a snow lover like me, it definitely is. But to each their own. I love these types of events as much as a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:15 PM, CoastalWx said: No, the other event had snow too. I had snow in that, it just was not much. And north of Boston had at least 1-3 all snow before IP. I thought Ray said even he started as mostly sleet/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 NAM and RGEM have another batch of SHSN or even squalls behind the front too. NAM was in MA, RGEM CT, but might be something to watch for another C-1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I thought Ray said even he started as mostly sleet/snow mix I know in Essex county they had snow. Anyways, we get it. It's been tough to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 RGEM is really bullish. It has advisory snow for many folks in SNE. The key is the vortmax is even further south than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 RGEM is probably 2-3 for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:20 PM, CoastalWx said: RGEM is probably 2-3 for Kevin. Might even be 4 verbatim...that's a 0.4" L.E. spot over him. It will change with the little bullseyes...but I liked the vortmax tracking further south on this run. It will deepen the instability and also prolong the band a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I wonder how realistic the second batch is. That boosts totals all the way to James land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: Might even be 4 verbatim...that's a 0.4" L.E. spot over him. It will change with the little bullseyes...but I liked the vortmax tracking further south on this run. It will deepen the instability and also prolong the band a little bit. Yeah I posted that before your graphic. I was looking at the hrly RGEM on CMC site and guessing. That's from the second batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 I like the RGEM, It did well on the last event up here, That would be warning snows back to here and most of the state outside of the immediate coast possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:23 PM, CoastalWx said: I wonder how realistic the second batch is. That boosts totals all the way to James land. Yeah I wouldnt count on that extra 0.1" from N CT to Cape Cod...but you can see how well E MA does since pike-northward doesn't get anything from that second band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:24 PM, dryslot said: I like the RGEM, It did well on the last event up here, That would be warning snows back to here and most of the state outside of the immediate coast possibly It was bad in ORD the other day, but it "seems" realistic to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wow that's 2-4 lolli 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I wouldnt count on that extra 0.1" from N CT to Cape Cod...but you can see how well E MA does since pike-northward doesn't get anything from that second band. On 1/11/2016 at 3:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I wouldnt count on that extra 0.1" from N CT to Cape Cod...but you can see how well E MA does since pike-northward doesn't get anything from that second band. I think Ray could be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Here;s total QPF from RGEM...not just snow QPF...I post this to show the potential in E MA...since it is possible the ptype algorithm is placing too much weight on the bottom 1,000 feet temps...we saw how cold just off the deck it was on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:27 PM, CoastalWx said: It was bad in ORD the other day, but it "seems" realistic to a point. It did ok here on the 12/29 event, If it is realistic, The earlier development helps SW areas up here as usually mid coast and DE end up the beneficiaries, The one plus or minus depending on ones take, Is that, The low hugs the coast, And looks to drop in the mid 980'smb range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Classic look once it gets its feet wet. With the more srn track and colder thicknesses...even with S winds, my concern is earlier flip to SN at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 2:53 PM, CoastalWx said: It's pretty cold for you. You guys don't get the moderating influence of the Atlantic. If it barely moderates Boston, I wouldn't worry. I think the question for you is how quickly it gets its act together. If it's starts as rain in the valley it will flip quick. The RGEM looks decent. If it's more like 1-2 than I will get the lower amounts. I was probably over dramatic about praying for a coating, it's probably a good bet. I would still like to be further NE and higher than 135 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 gfsis meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:41 PM, ineedsnow said: gfsis meh It has a later development, GFS has not done very well when we get close in to a storm system, I would wait for the Euro, And go with a RGEM/Euro blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It's hard to believe no-one south of the NH border has seen accumulating snow on Jan 11..Maybe the Berks or something, but the rest of us have all sleet. That's disgustingI had round 1.25-1.5" in the snow/sleet mess, Then another 0.25-0.5" refresher Sat morning Other places had 2"-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS is a bit colder, but not a big difference from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:43 PM, dryslot said: It has a later development, GFS has not done very well when we get close in to a storm system, I would wait for the Euro, And go with a RGEM/Euro blend It is a bit of mess with disorganized vort energy,,,it's been that way on most of its runs...however, that look is an outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:45 PM, ORH_wxman said: It is a bit of mess with disorganized vort energy,,,it's been that way on most of its runs...however, that look is an outlier right now. I agree, All the other guidance seems to be trending more favorable, A few days back, The GFS was the most bullish and the Euro was meh, It looks like the GFS does well in the mid range only to screw it up when you get inside 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 How deep/ warm does the bottom 1000 foot layer have to be for rain? Given everything above it is below zero. I mean snow doesn't instantly melt. On 1/11/2016 at 3:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: Here;s total QPF from RGEM...not just snow QPF...I post this to show the potential in E MA...since it is possible the ptype algorithm is placing too much weight on the bottom 1,000 feet temps...we saw how cold just off the deck it was on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yeah the GFS looked a little better on srn end of s/w trough, but lifted nrn part a bit compared to 6z. The other models were more concentrated with the s/w energy. But, we'll see what euro does...and it wouldn't really sway my opinion of any potential at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That is a pretty potent 3-6hr window for central ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On 1/11/2016 at 3:56 PM, Nwbostonwx said: How deep/ warm does the bottom 1000 foot layer have to be for rain? Given everything above it is below zero. I mean snow doesn't instantly melt. You generally need about a 1300-1700 foot (400-500m) warm layer to melt snow...it can vary slightly depending on how warm the layer is. Usually I look more at 950mb temps than the surface when you have a marginal near-ground sounding...the models can often overestimate surface warming or underestimate latent cooling at the surface as soon as precip become moderate to heavy. The latent cooling is more efficient too when you have good dendritic growth aloft, which looks to be the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Thank you. Good surprise potential then, so long as we remove the GFS solutions. On 1/11/2016 at 4:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: You generally need about a 1300-1700 foot (400-500m) warm layer to melt snow...it can vary slightly depending on how warm the layer is. Usually I look more at 950mb temps than the surface when you have a marginal near-ground sounding...the models can often overestimate surface warming or underestimate latent cooling at the surface as soon as precip become moderate to heavy. The latent cooling is more efficient too when you have good dendritic growth aloft, which looks to be the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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