dryslot Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Model trend have shifted the northern stream short wave further south as LP redevelops off the NE coast and throws some mod/hvy snows back over the region for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think it will end up further south and colder evolution overall, just my two cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think it will end up further south and colder evolution overall, just my two cents Why do you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Why do you think that? Because it has to snow on Cape Cod. Anything less in unacceptable. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Why do you think that? Because it's too far north to snow in his backyard at the moment. I wonder what he would say if it was showing a near miss to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I would say it looks to miss to the south, I would favor south over north right now as Arctic jet digs further south than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Maine is really where I would be excited. Big stakes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 I hate to say it, But the 12z Nam and 12z GGEM showed this Euro scenario this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Obviously the big snows are in Nne, but for the snow starved folks in SNE , it will be nice to get a few inches and hopefully is the start of a very special period . I'm excited for Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 When Scott talks about theta-e injection low, this is what he's talking about. You have a reservoir of relatively high theta-e just south of the area. As the low deepens/develops the LLJ will pull some of that northward in a tongue of juiced air. This is the NAM forecast at 00z and 03z Wednesday. You can see the pooling near SNE at 00z, but by 03z it's developed into a narrow theta-e ridge that will have some pretty good QPF on its nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 As that theta-e ridge develops, snows should concentrate a bit in the otherwise background snow shower regime. So even far NE MA or SE NH could get clipped as it develops. But interested should be piqued from PWM north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yes. We had one back in 2012 that gave SE MA like 5" in 2 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 When Scott talks about theta-e injection low, this is what he's talking about. You have a reservoir of relatively high theta-e just south of the area. As the low deepens/develops the LLJ will pull some of that northward in a tongue of juiced air. This is the NAM forecast at 00z and 03z Wednesday. You can see the pooling near SNE at 00z, but by 03z it's developed into a narrow theta-e ridge that will have some pretty good QPF on its nose. Theta-e_00z.jpeg Theta-e_03z.jpeg Chris, Thanks for those maps, That's a nice look, Could rip for a few hours if it plays out similar to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Any good weenie maps? Or rather any weenie maps at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I've shown this before, but in these situations we sometimes tick a lot of the Norlun boxes. At that same 03z Wednesday time period, you're collocating that unstable theta-e corridor with strong omega in deep onshore flow. You can take my word for it that it's saturated within this area too. Notice the closer you get to that instability axis the more the white (boundary layer) and blue (850 mb) wind flag align parallel to each other. Good way to sustained a concentrated band of precip rather than a widespread lighter area of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This might be one of those storms where Provincetown is a favored over CHatham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Any good weenie maps? Or rather any weenie maps at all? Not any unless it from a paid site for the Euro, 12z Euro on wxbell had a nice strip of 12"+ from about here just to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Maine is really where I would be excited. Big stakes there. Agree with ME in terms of "excited". Coastal NH and to a lesser degree, extreme north eastern MA, should stay interested and watchful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Thanks for the theta-E explanation. Fascinating stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Great posts OceanSt...really good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 We had an clipper injection low back in February 2014 that turned a 1-3 forecast into 4-8 inside of 24 hours. These should always be watched. You literally develop things a shade sooner and places that might have gotten a coating to an inch end up with 3 or 4" in a two hour dump of S+. Right now, I wouldn't predict more than an inch or two for anyone in SNE but I certainly would keep an eye on it with that vortmax tracking south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This might be one of those storms where Provincetown is a favored over CHatham Both look to have boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 We had an clipper injection low back in February 2014 that turned a 1-3 forecast into 4-8 inside of 24 hours. These should always be watched. You literally develop things a shade sooner and places that might have gotten a coating to an inch end up with 3 or 4" in a two hour dump of S+. Right now, I wouldn't predict more than an inch or two for anyone in SNE but I certainly would keep an eye on it with that vortmax tracking south of us. There was one here last year (or maybe it was 2014) where we had a dump of 5.5" in 2 hours at the WFO. And that was it, over and done with after 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 We are inside 60hrs now so, We should be able to start using the RGEM soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You could argue Valentines last year was one on roids, before the deformation took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 IIRC 1/18/14 was a good example of an over-performer in a similar synoptic set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I wouldn't worry about BL temps if heavier precip can develop, models over do warmth with cold 850mb layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I wouldn't worry about BL temps if heavier precip can develop, models over do warmth with cold 850mb layer Except that boundary layer flow is SE and advecting warmer air northward. The Cape just doesn't hold the cold air off like interior sections can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 True but I have seen this overcome with strong dynamics, and a stronger coastal development. I think southern stream gets absorbed into the Arctic jet energy and it becomes one shortwave, this allows a strong noisy atmosphere in place ahead of clipper for intense precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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