high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If you look at a recent HRRR simulation of composite reflectivity, it has echoes passing through right around now but no precip reaching the ground. Perhaps that is good news with respect to its handle on the event, as I sure do like its band of 35 dbz that passes between DCA and BWI between 6 and 7PM. << edit: 35 is in the composite, but it's still 25 dbz at 1 km >> with that said, returns on radar at work too, and nothing is falling. was just out picking up lunch. so, i'll assume nothing is falling at home too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 36 at home with some returns on radar. can't make out on the 83/York Road traffic camera is anything is falling. Really need to get a webcam for the backyard.Exactly what I was looking at earlier, it is dry with dews in the Upper teens, Outside of the Beltway it is in the Upper 30s for the most part, lower 40s for the metro's. Wet Bulb us 33.5 at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If you look at a recent HRRR simulation of composite reflectivity, it has echoes passing through right around now but no precip reaching the ground. Perhaps that is good news with respect to its handle on the event, as I sure do like its band of 35 dbz that passes between DCA and BWI between 6 and 7PM. << edit: 35 is in the composite, but it's still 25 dbz at 1 km >> hopefully the returns passing through will help the column out, definitely dry IMBY (as NinjaWarrior pointed out), 36 but a DP of 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Low dew points, time of day, cold antecedent surface conditions and elevation will help the lucky ones. Those west of MD 97 to MD 27 stand a chance for a solid coating, west of I-81 probably picks up widespread 1" - 2". Confident this could surprise the northern 1/3 of the Baltimore Beltway this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I see that warrantless optimism has begun right on schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I see that warrantless optimism has begun right on scheduleDon't ask me to snowblow your driveway mr. Pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 When does the destruction begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 ESRL has hrrr ensemble snowfall maps! Looks promising. ETA: This was an A.M. map, but no recent runs have been updating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 CO Workers wife just sent him a pic from cross-junction (near Winchester) of decent snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I see sun/blue skies....It's a sign. The calm before the "storm" has arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>056-501-502-505- 506-130100- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN- EASTERN LOUDOUN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK... BALLENGER CREEK...ELDERSBURG...WESTMINSTER...REISTERSTOWN... COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...BOWIE...SUITLAND-SILVER HILL... CLINTON...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...LAUREL...CAMP SPRINGS... GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK... ARNOLD...ODENTON...ST. CHARLES...WALDORF...GERMANTOWN... DAMASCUS...BETHESDA...ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...SILVER SPRING... LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN... DALE CITY...MANASSAS...WOODBRIDGE...LAKE RIDGE...MONTCLAIR... RESTON...HERNDON...ANNANDALE...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...MCLEAN... FRANCONIA...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALMOUTH...FREDERICKSBURG... WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...STERLING 153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 ...SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT RUSH HOUR THIS EVENING... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DURING RUSH HOUR. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE METRO AREA BY 4 PM AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 8 PM. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD DROP A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT PRESENT...GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY RESULT IN PATCHES OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO REACH 50 MPH WHICH COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR DAMAGE. EVENING COMMUTERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AND TAKE THEIR TIME. VISIBILITY COULD DROP RAPIDLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...AND ROADS WHICH APPEAR WET LATER THIS EVENING COULD IN FACT BE ICY. Best thing I've read all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 serious looking Virga out there! 42 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 First radar hallucinations showing up http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NWS Said Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...BALLENGER CREEK...ELDERSBURG...WESTMINSTER...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...BOWIE...SUITLAND-SILVER HILL...CLINTON...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...LAUREL...CAMP SPRINGS...GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK...ARNOLD...ODENTON...ST. CHARLES...WALDORF...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...BETHESDA...ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...SILVER SPRING...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...DALE CITY...MANASSAS...WOODBRIDGE...LAKE RIDGE...MONTCLAIR...RESTON...HERNDON...ANNANDALE...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...MCLEAN...FRANCONIA...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALMOUTH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...STERLING153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016...SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT RUSH HOURTHIS EVENING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DURING RUSHHOUR. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ANDSTRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THEMETRO AREA BY 4 PM AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 8 PM.THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD DROP A QUICKCOATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ATPRESENT...GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAYRESULT IN PATCHES OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. THEGUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO REACH 50 MPH WHICH COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINORDAMAGE.EVENING COMMUTERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AND TAKE THEIR TIME.VISIBILITY COULD DROP RAPIDLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING HEAVIERSNOW SHOWERS...AND ROADS WHICH APPEAR WET LATER THIS EVENINGCOULD IN FACT BE ICY.$RCM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 First radar hallucinations showing up http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-24 I'm pulling for the MoCo/HoCo death band. We can't be denied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 And this is it folks for the foreseeable future. Good luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Latest HRRR, too warm unless your out by 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Blue Skies and Sunny here in 21057 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Sun came out for a brief half hour and the temperature spiked to 44*F. Sure that was reassuring to the town of Leesburg public works who spent the morning needlessly assaulting their roads with brine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Radar scope shows some lgjtnint being detected in the line out in Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's not really the temps, as the HRRR still shows the idea of initial rain showers causing evaporative cooling, causing a change to snow. The problem is that this HRRR cycle backed off a lot on QPF here in the local area, with only very scattered snow showers behind the rain showers. Could be the model picking up on a change to how this will evolve or just a hiccup. Either way, no one was expecting more than 0.5" of snow locally even in the best-case scenario. Latest HRRR, too warm unless your out by 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Here is the 19z sounding for DC...maybe rain initially here in DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's not really the temps, as the HRRR still shows the idea of initial rain showers causing evaporative cooling, causing a change to snow. The problem is that this HRRR cycle backed off a lot on QPF here in the local area, with only very scattered snow showers behind the rain showers. Could be the model picking up on a change to how this will evolve or just a hiccup. Either way, no one was expecting more than 0.5" of snow locally even in the best-case scenario. or the Euro signal for days. lol, kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 40 out and there is a bit of something white that is pellet in nature falling out here in Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Now we're talkin...time sensitive http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.php?feed=90006ca901fa00b10052fa36c4235c0a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Dark clouds rolling in quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Now we're talkin...time sensitive http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.php?feed=90006ca901fa00b10052fa36c4235c0a Nice... I would like to see that here sometime this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Now we're talkin...time sensitive http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.php?feed=90006ca901fa00b10052fa36c4235c0a I wish they had updated map links to show locations. Nice find btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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