arlwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Again, go (north) west. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN GRT LKS WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ERN GRT LKS AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONG H5 HEIGHT FALLS (170 METERS/12 HR) ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP PUSH A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 21Z AND OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BY 00Z WITH A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP BETWEEN 18Z-00Z ACCOMPANYING FROPA. ROUGHLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 15 AND SOUTH OF I-70...GFS TEMP PROFILES SHOW MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. 500-METER AND SFC WET-BULB TEMPS ARE ALL ABOVE FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS SO INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH PRECIP ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW WITH NO ACCUMULATION. WEST AND NORTH OF THOSE AREAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES OVER 50 J/KG WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FIVE ZONES WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. GFS INDICATES A STRONG PRES SURGE OF 6-8 MB PER 3 HRS BEHIND FROPA WITH 40-45KT IN THE LOWEST 1500 FT AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. SREF WIND SPEED PROBS ALSO INDICATE 50-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 20 MPH OVER NORTHEAST MD AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BASED ON THESE PARAMETERS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 22Z-04Z TIME FRAME. TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST AFTER 00Z WITH PRECIP SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING. VERY COLD WED UNDER A BRISK NW FLOW. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 A lot of the short range models (minus the RGEM) have decent support for a line to roll in and grow as it approaches the D.C. area, then have individual squalls follow an hour or two later. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Snow has started up on the ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Can't wait for traffic to be at a complete standstill for the first snow flurry of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 https://twitter.com/EskimoJoe492/status/686899112839647232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes. we're now in HRRR range, and it has a really nice band. A lot of the short range models (minus the RGEM) have decent support for a line to roll in and grow as it approaches the D.C. area, then have individual squalls follow an hour or two later. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I know how these things work out here, so good luck to you eastern guys. Some of you might get your first measurable of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes. we're now in HRRR range, and it has a really nice band. Looks like nice burst of snow on latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I know how these things work out here, so good luck to you eastern guys. Some of you might get your first measurable of the season. Yup. This is not something we get excited about around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks like nice burst of snow on latest HRRR.But only after a nice burst of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 But only after a nice burst of rain. Maybe it'll wash off a little of the pre treating making for a good base for the quick freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 But only after a nice burst of rain. mitchnick - you've been here long enough. The squall will create it's own cold air. 6-12 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nonsense. We start at 12 and leave room to adjust upward. Shhh - I was trying to be realistic. Can't have the weenie side of things taking over before the flakes even start to fall. Save that for when it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I admit I was wrong. The green is there to allow for the color creativity of the programmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Last years squall was something I won't soon forget. That said, I would take a small flizzard today and call it a win. I haven't even seen flake yet, sooooooo.....I'm all in! Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NAM Hi-Res has a nice looking squall at 0z for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NAM Hi-Res has a nice looking squall at 0z for us. sure, a squall of rain. temps are in the mid to upper 30s when it comes through. per the NAM anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Any Snow I see will be a win, but I'm expecting to see drizzle too if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Cold air chasing warm snow For a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Last years squall was something I won't soon forget. That said, I would take a small flizzard today and call it a win. I haven't even seen flake yet, sooooooo.....I'm all in! Why not. That was awesome. I picked up close to 3" in just over an hour, with whiteout at the end. Expecting nothing like that today here. Temps too warm today ahead of the front. Probably a rain shower followed by cold and wind. Places NW towards Westminster could get a nice coating I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Snow has started up on the ridges. image.png Whitetail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 0.1" or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 0.1" or bust! I will take the bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looking good at Canaan- http://canaanresort.com/winter/ski/webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 sure, a squall of rain. temps are in the mid to upper 30s when it comes through. per the NAM anyways. Damn those pesky little details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think I'm a little more optimistic on this than most others, at least in terms of seeing a nice burst of snow and perhaps a whitening of grassy areas for those north of DC. Yes, the parent NAM is uninspiring in terns of QPF and temperatures, but 12 km is not going to handle a narrow strongly-forced band. The NAM nest and the HRRR are what we should focus on, with both showing a nice band moving through areas north of DC (and perhaps DC itself). The 12z NAM nest and the last few HRRR runs show about 0.05 for BWI, and while the NAM nest mostly misses DCA, the 15z HRRR has 0.05 there too. These hi-res runs also simulate strong evaporational cooling setting in quickly such that it probably does start as rain but quickly goes over to snow as temps fall into the 33-36 range. And as I've been typing this, I see that the 16z HRRR has 0.05 for DCA and 0.07 for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 #teamhighrisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm scared now that I've set myself for complete and catastrophic failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 36 at home with some returns on radar. can't make out on the 83/York Road traffic camera is anything is falling. Really need to get a webcam for the backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 with that said, returns on radar at work too, and nothing is falling. was just out picking up lunch. so, i'll assume nothing is falling at home too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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