Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Cold chasing warm snow. Still the biggest event of the winterYeah probably, unless nothing falls. Might as well get our T here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 NAM nest at the end of its integration (00z Wednesday) does show a band of snow showers on the front in the simulated reflectivity field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I wanted to say it, but didn't want to be labeled a weenie for talking about the NAM @ 60. I have clear eyes about Tuesday. Expectations are low, I'd be over the moon to see snow in the air, but I am prepared in case things fall apart. Question, why is it that the sim radar and winter radar progs are so different? The scales are different - look at the right side - one starts at 12 other starts at 4dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I wouldn't worry too much about "the NAM @ 60". Guidance seems to be locked in on the synoptic details, so it's worth looking here at a simulation that tries to resolve the mesoscale details. Maybe that band would fall apart as it comes east if the run went another 6 hours, but the overall look there is encouraging for those who want to see a quick burst of snow. As for those plots, the scales are different, but it still looks to me like the labels aren't right. Almost seems like the second plot really starts at 20 and not 12. I wanted to say it, but didn't want to be labeled a weenie for talking about the NAM @ 60. I have clear eyes about Tuesday. Expectations are low, I'd be over the moon to see snow in the air, but I am prepared in case things fall apart. Question, why is it that the sim radar and winter radar progs are so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Something isn't quite right. If you look over Lake Superior, there is clearly some of the "3rd level of green" which corresponds to 12+ dbz, and the second plot then should have echoes there if it really starts at 12 dbz. I wonder if the listed scale on the second plot is wrong. On the other hand, I think it's more likely that the developer of that page is doing some processing of the original reflectivity field in order to convert the reflectivity to a precip type-based reflectivity plot; whatever remapping is being done could be wiping out some detail. The details of the features on the bottom map just don't quite match up with the features on the top plot. The scales are different - look at the right side - one starts at 12 other starts at 4dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Something isn't quite right. If you look over Lake Superior, there is clearly some of the "3rd level of green" which corresponds to 12+ dbz, and the second plot then should have echoes there if it really starts at 12 dbz. I wonder if the listed scale on the second plot is wrong. On the other hand, I think it's more likely that the developer of that page is doing some processing of the original reflectivity field in order to convert the reflectivity to a precip type-based reflectivity plot; whatever remapping is being done could be wiping out some detail. The details of the features on the bottom map just don't quite match up with the features on the top plot. Yeah I took another look after my first glance and I agree. Seems wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Interesting radar loop on the NAM. You can link it from here. Ncep won't let you have a direct link to radar loop. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20160111%2000%20UTC¶m=sim_radar&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The NAM definitely tracks the vort extremely favorably for the area. Both the parent and the nest end up with a healthy mesoscale band; it's obviously better defined in the nest. We'll have to see exactly where that vort ends up. I like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Actually, Nam has another clipper at the end of its run too fwliw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm interested in seeing what the REGM says once we're in range. That won't be till tomorrow's 06z run I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm interested in seeing what the REGM says once we're in range.It's been very disappointing (as in accurate) with its poo-pooing of snows in the MA & NE this year. I still remember its 18z run on 2/14/15 when it showed the heavier qpf strip over mby. Dang if it wasn't right too. It did well last year. I'm so hoping that it show for us this winter a heavy event because it will mean it's gunna' snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Don't look at the latest one lol, it says no. Not much for ENE (Boston in particular) again. Euro looked darn good for them at 12z. I guess we'll see whether the Euro caves to the RGEM of all models. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The nest is going to resolve a mesoscale band better, just by resolution. In instability-driven convective events, the nest will also often do better since it is explicitly generating convective features, while the parent has to represent them using the convective scheme. I doubt here that this is in play for the Tuesday evening feature, as I don't think this is convective, but I didn't have a chance to look. Yep, but better to see a tick in the right direction than the opposite. Edit: question...Looking at the 18z GFS and this most recent run, the vort passes look identical. Are you saying that the nest is just doing a better job of showing how the vort pass translates to the mesoscale band, or that there are, in fact, subtle differences that develop this band as a result? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Haha, I'm not banking on a Euro cave to the REGM lol. Thanks Frankly, I think the Euro WILL cave to the RGEM. Euro was way too wet for NE vs. any other model. Now, tonight's runs of the NAM and GFS agree with the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 12z NAM does us no favors... snow for no one really as vort pass is in N PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 True, but the nest still has a modest signal for a very narrow band of snow showers. I think that the possibility of an hour or so of snow has pretty much faded, but the chance of 15 minutes of flakes in the air (and perhaps a brief burst) is still on the table. The nest will resolve a feature like that; the parent won't. 12z NAM does us no favors... snow for no one really as vort pass is in N PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS still giving us some precip tomorrow afternoon with marginal surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 A T is a win. Sad for mid-January, but here we are. I'd take 15 minutes of legit flakes. I want a legit storm (>2") to break the snowless streak; otherwise, I'd rather go snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The trackers of this thing are the true diehards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Oh how we hope Real chill/wind arrives afterward for Wednesday. image.png image.png I'm on mobile, do they have a maximum potential map? Just for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm on mobile, do they have a maximum potential map? Just for posterity. Don't know what I was expecting. Least everyone gets a trace that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 18z NAM nest has a really nice band Tuesday early evening in the simulated reflectivity. I wonder, though, if temps could be an issue, as it hit 40 today on a west wind, and the guidance has strong SW flow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The only good part about having no snow is that we haven't had to look at those snow probability maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm guessing 1-3" for the far hills. The BTV WRF SNSQ parameter indicates a brief period of an intense band in the Oakland-Davis-Canaan corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm guessing 1-3" for the far hills. The BTV WRF SNSQ parameter indicates a brief period of an intense band in the Oakland-Davis-Canaan corridor. Where do you find that? I see it discussed in the Pittsburgh AFD for Canaan/Davis somewhat frequently but can never find where to access it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Where do you find that? I see it discussed in the Pittsburgh AFD for Canaan/Davis somewhat frequently but can never find where to access it. http://www.weather.gov/btv/12kmwrfChange the element to snsq. It's near the bottom. The model did a great job with the super squall that hit us last year. Seems to do a good job with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just looking at sim radar on the hi res NAM, things look solid again tomorrow night. Solid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 00z GFS looks solid for some SnowTV tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 00z GFS looks solid for some SnowTV tomorrow eveningSnow TV and wind. Add some falling temps and sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRANQUIL FORECAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL CLOUD UP LATE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING WITH WINDS HAVING BECOME LIGHT. ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY 7AM-10PM FOR WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS EARLIER THIS EVENING. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE APPROACHES A QUARTER INCH QPF WITH FAVORABLE FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. MOST INTENSE SNOWS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED TIMING OF ADVISORY DURING HIGHEST IMPACTS. ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND POTENT VORT MAX ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. WET BULB PROFILES ARE MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING...SO ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 40S...ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COOL THEM RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN A QUICK DUSTING AND REDUCING VSBY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT CURRENT TIMING INDICATES HIGHEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR DURING EVENING COMMUTE. AT FIRST GLANCE THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT ROAD ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MY CONCERN WOULD BE THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING AROUND DUSK...HAVING IT MELT ON CONTACT...THEN REFREEZE AS TEMPS DROP...STRONG WINDS REMOVE THE HEAT...AND WITHOUT ANY SOLAR INSOLATION TO HELP. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HALF INCH AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA. WINDS WITH THE FRONT MAY ALSO GUST QUITE STRONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF WIND ALOFT AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE. So basically a much much less exciting version of 2/14/15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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