Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Could be our 1st flakes. 0.01" with 20:1 ratios gets us ahead of 97-98 and 72-73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Something wicked this way comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This is the storm that will eventually give us our potential 50/50 low, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Para Euro gives us a nice vort pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm out of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm out of town. I time traveled to the future and took a pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Tues is going to be kind of mild. I may take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I will be in Florida good luck everyone I'm pulling for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wxwatcher, look at the slp as well. In this case we need the vort much further south to end up on the north side of the low which is always the preferred. Virtually no chance at that happening. We'll get some waa precip as the low passes north. But that also means dicey temps as Ian already pointed I out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I time traveled to the future and took a pic How about some lottery numbers, or at least the scores from the wild card games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks good IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm torn. Am I getting 2" or 4 from this super clipper? FWIW...I'm pouring over every scrap of data I can get. I'm desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Don't like seeing an impressive sfc low going well north of us like that. The low-level winds here usually end up southwesterly which causes some downsloping. Looking at the NAM at 84, you can see strong SW flow even up at 700 mb which can assist with dry slot formation. With a strong vort in the right place and an intense arctic front, you can still certainly create a band of healthy snow showers (that can accumulate. hell, look at what the band in North Dakota did Wednesday night), but some things will be working against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Don't like seeing an impressive sfc low going well north of us like that. The low-level winds here usually end up southwesterly which causes some downsloping. Looking at the NAM at 84, you can see strong SW flow even up at 700 mb which can assist with dry slot formation. With a strong vort in the right place and an intense arctic front, you can still certainly create a band of healthy snow showers (that can accumulate. hell, look at what the band in North Dakota did Wednesday night), but some things will be working against us. Yep. Normally it's a dusting or even a miss because of the downsloping. Still occasionally will get a dusting and some lucky fellow to our north gets and inch. I'd just like to see more snow than last weeks meager flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 No chance of a few flakes on Sunday? There's going to be some massive lake effect from warm lakes Michigan, Huron and Erie, maybe something jumps the mountains and gives you a quick trace. (is there a slow trace?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 NAM says we're 60 early Sunday afternoon falling to 40 by evening and then dropping more during the night. The problem is that the low-level flow here goes strong westerly late in the day which should dry us out good. It will only be cold enough for flakes well after dark, and the NAM says that precip isn't anywhere near here by then. I think we have a better shot at thunder Saturday night than we do of snowflakes on Sunday No chance of a few flakes on Sunday? There's going to be some massive lake effect from warm lakes Michigan, Huron and Erie, maybe something jumps the mountains and gives you a quick trace. (is there a slow trace?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS says best to take the under on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Thanks guys for the analysis. Was my read on the overall setup correct? All vort passes are not created equal. The best type of clipper is when the vort digs below us and surface reflection pops somewhere in central or southern va out in front of the vort. This compensates for orographics wringing things out to the west and down sloping. We're in the best dynamics being north of slp. This one has the low spinning well above the base of the vort and instead of out in front it's behind the leading edge. Because the low is so far north we really don't have much to work with except a line of snow showers being triggered by the moisture in the southerly warm advection that's getting sucked into the low pressure to the north. The lift is being provided by the Arctic front. Looks more impressive at h5 than reality at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 .05 from euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z NAM. Let's hope it's all snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_078_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160109+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=171&scrolly=716 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Probably not, temps look to be in mid to upper 30s at that time http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016010912/nam_T2m_neus_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I think that it would be mostly snow but not accumulate. Snow can make it to the ground in the mid or upper 30's, but then melt. It gives us a wintry appeal, something we haven't seen this "winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I do know this. Whenever the line of snow showers moves through on tues, I'm waking my dog through all 15 minutes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 too much deep southwest flow with this event to do a whole lot here. best case scenario is probably a strongly-forced line of quick snow squalls right on the front, and getting shut out is certainly in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 We had a massive squall last February and this is a moisture laden situation as the front passes. It looks able to drop temps 15* in 2 hours and that can be a 20-30 minute snow blaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 We had a massive squall last February and this is a moisture laden situation as the front passes. It looks able to drop temps 15* in 2 hours and that can be a 20-30 minute snow blaster Last year's squall came with dropping temps, howling wind and briefly blinding snow for some. And snow that developed out ahead of the main squall. Is this even close to the same?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 No, I don't think so. Yeah, doesn't seem.to be even remotely close. That was unique for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Just remember that's all fallen in the 6 hrs prior. Looks like precip ends near 95 around 21z. I haven't seen a run that has 'good' precip in the supportive air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Just remember that's all fallen in the 6 hrs prior. Looks like precip ends near 95 around 21z. I haven't seen a run that has 'good' precip in the supportive air. Cold chasing warm snow. Still the biggest event of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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