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Two Clipper System's Jan 11-14th Disco/OBS


dmc76

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I got 1.4" in my hourly.

 

Latest from LOT.
 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
920 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
852 PM CST

AFTER A COLD NIGHT...CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED ON OUR NEXT SNOW
EVENT...SET TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TYPICALLY THIS CLIPPER
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TEND TO DEVELOP A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
MODELS SUGGEST. WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...I AM PLANNING ON UPPING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALSO
UPPING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP (POSSIBLY UP TO 10,000
FT). THEREFORE...MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WITHIN THIS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ZONE...LIKELY RESULTING IN HIGH RATIO TYPE
SNOWS...POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 20:1. ALL IN ALL THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF FLUFFY SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AFTERNOON
RUSH. WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
INTO TUESDAY.

ALSO GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...ONCE THE WINDS PICK UP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME
AN ISSUE.

WILL BE SENDING OUT UPDATES SHORTLY.

KJB

 

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Solid AFD from Sam Lashley of IWX.  Has ratios 15:1 to 18:1:

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY
MICHIGAN COUNTIES WITH WESTERLY FETCH AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS TODAY WILL SEE THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT TO A SW TO
NE ORIENTATION PRIMARILY AFFECTING BERRIEN AND NORTHERN CASS
COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE
AND EXPECT WEAKENING TREND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH.

SHORT WAVE DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT ALREADY PRODUCING CLOUDS OVER IA AND IL. THESE
WILL SPREAD EAST TODAY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
INCREASES. LEFT FRONT REGION OF SMALL 60KT 500MB JET STREAK WILL AID
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONGER PV
ANOMALY WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FIRST TONIGHT WITH STRONGER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS CYCLONICALLY CURVED 90KT 500MB JET STREAK
ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEPENING OF
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WARM LAKES
TONIGHT...AIDING IN THE INTENSIFICATION. RESULT SHOULD BE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 20Z AND QUICKLY
SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

PCPN TYPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH ARCTIC AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.
SNOW RATIOS FROM NAM AND GFS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 15:1 AND 18:1 FOR
THE SYSTEM AND 20 TO 1 WITH LAKE EFFECT AFTER 09Z. QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS EXPECTED WHICH YIELDS SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF
GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES. ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BE CLOSER TO LAKE WHERE LAKE EFFECT ON BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM WILL BE RAMPING UP AFTER 09Z. SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND DEEP
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SFC-850MB DELTA T VALUES
RISING TO AROUND 20C AND SFC-700MB VALUES NEARING 30C TOWARD 12Z.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING SATURATED DGZ WITH STRONG LIFT SO
INTENSE BANDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE AS LOW DEEPENS. NORTHWEST 20
TO 30 MPH EXPECTED TO AID IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE POWDERY
SNOW.

 

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