dmc76 Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 How is that being conservative? The majority of guidance falls in lock step with that forecast. Personally I do not want the WFOs in the business of wish casting. But we also don't need every freaking system being brushed under the rug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Early clipper call 3-5" for Southeast Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 06Z GFS is having issues with lake effect, and weirdly has the lake effect band setup inland in Branch and Hillsdale counties. the NAM actually looks more realistic in this case, with more spread-the-wealth LES from the levels of instability. Also, once again DTX is conservative as always. Only thinks one to two even in the snow belt. PERIOD AS A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN AND OF ITSELF IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD...RE-ENFORCES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AFTER BRING A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO...TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST No part of DTX is in a west wind LES belt. And besides, even the bullish NAM you reference only shows ~2" tops for much of DTX's CWA. Sure, it's possible a stationary LES band could develop along a convergence zone and dump higher amounts of snow in a narrow corridor, but I wouldn't base the forecast for an entire CWA on that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looking decent. That is the composite reflectivity, FWIW. A lot of that (especially with the Siberian airmass) will not translate into ground-level reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Updated thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 NAM shows the afterwards LES for tomorrows event, hints at 3-5 event, localized 6. A lot more further north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Really, this clipper is a piece of the arctic jet stream coming down out of the Northwest Territories and the surface low will be generated somewhere around Duluth or Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 NAM favors areas south of I-80 in eastern IL and IN. Not exactly a moisture laden system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 409 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS FLAT UPPER FLOW SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A SURFACE HIGH CROSSES EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...THE COLD STARTING POINTS AND EXPECTED SHALLOW MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING APPRECIABLY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S (NORTHERN CWA) TO AROUND 30 (SOUTHERN CWA)...WHICH WOULD BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION (WITH 850MB SPEED CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT) WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...SPREADING INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW (THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG) WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL BE A POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SIGNAL ANOTHER CHANGE OF AIR MASS FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-15Z. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT AND ABOVE 875MB WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...AIDED BY SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION BETWEEN 800MB AND 650MB...WHICH MAY LINE UP WITH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A WHILE...DEPENDING ON HOW EXACTLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES PROGRESS. THUS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT SNOW...AND FORECAST NUMBERS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY AROUND A HALF INCH. THE NEW SNOWFALL FORECAST INDICATES AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...RANGING TO ABOUT TWO AND A HALF INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THIS EVENT REMAINS TWO DAYS AWAY...THESE FORECAST NUMBERS SHOULD CERTAINLY BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY EXPECTATIONS. THOUGH THE RESPECTABLE FORCING AND INCREASING SNOW RATIOS ARE FAVORABLE IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE TWO LIMITING FACTORS TO MENTION. FIRST...THE DEPTH OF SATURATION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...WITH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 700MB. SECOND...THE TIMING OF THE COLDEST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR (ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE) MAY NOT PERFECTLY ALIGN WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS STEADIER SNOW ENDS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASES. FOCUSING ON QPF OUTPUT FROM LARGER-SCALE MODELS WILL NOT TELL THE STORY...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CLEARLY INDICATE A STRONGLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (WITH WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY) AND CONTINUALLY COOLING 850MB TEMPS. WEATHER GRIDS WERE EDITED TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND EXTEND THESE CHANCES WELL THROUGH THE DAY. THESE EARLY INDICATIONS DO PROVIDE FOR SOME CONCERN REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NON-DIURNAL ON MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY COOL DURING THE EVENING...WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...PERSISTENT FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL EASILY DROP BELOW ZERO. IN FACT...FOR THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT AROUND THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -10 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 DTX's thoughts: MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING SNOW MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS INTENSE UPPER WAVE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT/PV ADVECTION...AS ACTUAL SURFACE LOW/REFLECTION TRACKS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATION ALL THE WAY UP PAST 15 KFT...WITH GENEROUS QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TENTH OF AN INCH AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY STEEP WITH CAPES WITHIN THE DGZ EXCEEDING 50 J/KG AND CLOUD DEPTHS STILL 10 KFT. WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SET UP FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND LOCALIZED WHITE OUT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WILL LIMIT THE MELTING OF SNOW AS SALT BEGINS TO LOOSE ITS EFFECTIVENESS AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITHIN THE SQUALLS. BETWEEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MORE LOCALIZED/INTENSE NATURE ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW RATIOS...AS 925 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SNEAK UP TO AROUND 2 G/KG EARLY TUESDAY. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERSIST NARROW BAND WHICH SETS UP DURING TUESDAY. Much more aggressive compared to this morning's afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 IWX raised point and click here to 2-6 Point and Click further west is 3-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Could be some modest multiband enhancement off Lk Ontario/Erie with this one. Good delta-ts and a S/SSE flow. Wouldn't be surprised by locally 4"+ in the golden horseshoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 First/last call for here 0.0-0.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GRR is saying possibly a foot out of this from lake enhancement for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Should be able to pick up 1-1.5" out of the Monday-Tuesday portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Could be some modest multiband enhancement off Lk Ontario/Erie with this one. Good delta-ts and a S/SSE flow. Wouldn't be surprised by locally 4"+ in the golden horseshoe. The low will also be strengthening as it approaches S On. The Euro has a <1000mb low travelling just to our north while the REG is ~994mb. Inversion heights get as high as 700mb under a SSE flow on the NAM, although winds do veer some with height. An inversion that high has been very rare lately under an easterly flow. Weve seen decent Lehs with inversion heights as low as 850-900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's good to see snowstormcanuck back with us again. It's like a family reunion when a snow even threatens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's good to see snowstormcanuck back with us again. It's like a family reunion when a snow even threatens. This. First and last call here: 2.3" EDIT: Now we just need to get Tim (Chicagowx) back on his game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The low will also be strengthening as it approaches S On. The Euro has a <1000mb low travelling just to our north while the REG is ~994mb. Inversion heights get as high as 700mb under a SSE flow on the NAM, although winds do veer some with height. An inversion that high has been very rare lately under an easterly flow. Weve seen decent Lehs with inversion heights as low as 850-900mb. Absolutely. Going to be tough to get bands to sit still given the variable flow, and not a ton of fetch so I'm not expecting monster amounts. But always nice to track mesoscale in a larger synoptic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Thanks guys. I've learned that it's best to step away when the wx is blah. Enjoy tracking that much more when you return to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Absolutely. Going to be tough to get bands to sit still given the variable flow, and not a ton of fetch so I'm not expecting monster amounts. But always nice to track mesoscale in a larger synoptic storm. Agree. Here's a look at a sounding over Lk On valid 15z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I noticed none of the models did very well AT ALL tonight with the LES, so I think the numbers pumped out are low an inch or two, seeing how the majority of my snow on the ground right now was from this out-of-the-blue LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I noticed none of the models did very well AT ALL tonight with the LES, so I think the numbers pumped out are low an inch or two, seeing how the majority of my snow on the ground right now was from this out-of-the-blue LES. Sometimes the models are waaaay underdone for LES. Just depends. How much snow have you picked up from the "storm" and then this LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hoping I can pull off an inch tomorrow from the clipper. It looks better recently in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Blackrock, 1.1 from the storm 1.5 from the LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not expecting much from tomorrow's clipper, MI should do well. Also, can we drop the apostrophe from the thread subject? Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS finally showing the snow accumulation. Sweet, 1.7" for ORD and Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Almost forgot to check the Kuchera GFS map. Messy rush hour tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I could see ORD and/or MDW hitting 2" given the high ratios/deep DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM looks good for the area as well. Honestly, will be our biggest all snow event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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