dmc76 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 DTX says 1". Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This looks lame even by clipper standards. Thermal gradient is weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Precip amounts appear to be only a few hundredths of an inch here, but ratios should be 15:1 or better possibly yielding a whopping 1" of snow. Stackin' nickels and dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 DTX says 1". Lol Seems like a reasonable initial call to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Seems like a reasonable initial call to me. That's not a reasonable call. Between the LES bands and the clipper u really think 1" is s reasonable call? Lol. Will get at least 2". Maybe 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That's not a reasonable call. Between the LES bands and the clipper u really think 1" is s reasonable call? Lol. Will get at least 2". Maybe 3. One's already starting off wrong if they're holding out for help from LES bands to get 2-3" of snow (for a number of reasons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Based on all available data, forecasting just 1 inch of snow for SE MI mon nite and Tuesday is clearly lowballing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Based on all available data, forecasting just 1 inch of snow for SE MI mon nite and Tuesday is clearly lowballing Even the bullish models only show 0.10" of QPF. Going with climo snow ratios, that would only translate to 1" to 1.5" of snow. Granted, that's not factoring in a possible feast or famine outcome (I.E. areas under heavier stationary banding that may develop end up with more snow while other areas end up with less snow), but it would be unreasonable at this point to try and pinpoint the aforementioned details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Even the bullish models only show 0.10" of QPF. Going with climo snow ratios, that would only translate to 1" to 1.5" of snow. Granted, that's not factoring in a possible feast or famine outcome (I.E. areas under heavier stationary banding that may develop end up with more snow while other areas end up with less snow), but it would be unreasonable at this point to try and pinpoint the aforementioned details. NAM and GFS both show 0.15-0.20" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 NAM and GFS both show 0.15-0.20" qpf. Some of that is from modeled LES banding, and the location / intensity / migration of those bands is hard to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Some of that is from modeled LES banding, and the location / intensity / migration of those bands is hard to pinpoint.One inch is a lowball especially with no range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Some of that is from modeled LES banding, and the location / intensity / migration of those bands is hard to pinpoint. I agree that lake banding is never easy to pinpoint, but the models show more than 0.10" qpf any way you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 18Z NAM is WAY more snowy on the clipper, snows for longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This clipper looks like LES fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 ILN had an interesting AFD. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH409 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUATIONOF A COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHEASTCANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEW ENGLANDREGION.ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE THREAT FORPRECIPITATION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHUNTS OFF TO THEEAST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CLOUDSINCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGHSWILL STAY BELOW FREEZING...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THELOWER 30S SOUTH.FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSHSOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. A LEADS/WV AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST BEFORE THE FRONTARRIVES. THIS WILL START SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWESTZONES MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER S/WV INASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CAUSE A SYNOPTICSCALE RESPONSE...WHICH WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS A BAND OF SNOW ALONGAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATIONWILL LIKELY BE ARRIVING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.SNOW TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OFTHE OHIO RIVER. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THEMORNING COMMUTE...AND WITH INCREASING GUSTY WINDS...IT WILL POSE ATRAVEL HAZARD. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLYAFTERNOON...STRONG CAA...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANDLINGERING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW TOSCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE NWS BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERINDICATES THAT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ROBUST...CAPABLE OFDROPPING VISIBILITIES QUICKLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH AQUICK MINOR ACCUMULATION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE EARLY...WITH FALLINGTEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO A FEWFLURRIES DURING THE EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDYTOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THEOHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTEDBY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIORIVER AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLYDECREASE...THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COLD WIND CHILLVALUES AROUND 10 BELOW NORTH AND FROM 5 BELOW TO ZERO SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 This clipper looks like LES fuel. Weenie alert. I'm going bold with this. 3-5" for Livingston and Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Weenie alert. I'm going bold with this. 3-5" for Livingston and Oakland.What about wayne? This seems spread the wealth.In their disco DTX says 2-4" with locations seeing the good lake bands closer to 4". This morning they said 1" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like a nice event. Fluffy snow, finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's gotta be more straightforward than the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like a nice event. Fluffy snow, finally! Slight chance models could trend towards 3-6. There is gonna be a ton of blowing/drifting from this and tonights snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z NAM with its best run yet for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 MPX going with 0.5" on Monday night. Lows bottom out around -12F afterwards on Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looking decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The NAM is hinting at major Lake enhancement: NAM actually gives me almost six inches, as well as down into Ohio as a major lake effect band reaches inland during the clipper and holds for about six hours, of course since it's hinting at LES you gotta always know the snowfall totals will HEAVILY vary. GFS is basically the NAM sans LES enhancement, which appears likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS isn't picking up on the snow west of the lake very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 06Z NAM has serious lake enhancement, widespread 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Should be a nice 1-3" event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 06Z GFS is having issues with lake effect, and weirdly has the lake effect band setup inland in Branch and Hillsdale counties. the NAM actually looks more realistic in this case, with more spread-the-wealth LES from the levels of instability. Also, once again DTX is conservative as always. Only thinks one to two even in the snow belt. PERIOD AS A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFITSELF IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD...RE-ENFORCES THE UPPERTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AFTERBRING A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH ORTWO...TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THETEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 06Z GFS is having issues with lake effect, and weirdly has the lake effect band setup inland in Branch and Hillsdale counties. the NAM actually looks more realistic in this case, with more spread-the-wealth LES from the levels of instability. Also, once again DTX is conservative as always. Only thinks one to two even in the snow belt. PERIOD AS A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN AND OF ITSELF IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD...RE-ENFORCES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AFTER BRING A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO...TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST How is that being conservative? The majority of guidance falls in lock step with that forecast. Personally I do not want the WFOs in the business of wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This clipper looks like LES fuel.Mqt already mentioned the need for possible winter storm warnings late Monday night/Tuesday. ..EXPECT A VERY STRONG BURST OF SNOW FOR A 3-6HR PERIOD ALONG AND RIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MODERATE NORTH- NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY SNOW...EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG THE TROUGH...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR TRAVEL AND VISIBILITIES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS IDEA OVER THE LAST 24-36HRS...WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO AS SOME AREAS MAY END UP NEEDING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE SNOW/WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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