isohume Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 That's awesome! We always miss the good stuff down here! The biggest hail I have ever seen was about ping pong - golfball sized hail, on Pelham road, about 5 or 6 years ago. It put dings and dents into my old Chevrolet truck, with good heavy sheet metal , and never got them taken out, still got the truck! Did ping pong ball size, damage any cars? We lucked out with the dents. The largest hailstones were sporadic and the whole event only lasted about 5 mins. The heavier stuff was just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Waterspout reported just offshore from Ft. Lauderdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 19, 2016 Author Share Posted March 19, 2016 Would have been a decent waterspout based on that.....I have seen a few in my day, I spend a lot of time on the Pamlico River/Sound and see weakish ones often but have only seen a good funnel once.... This is the only one I suspect was a weak waterspout that I have gotten video of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Waterspout reported just offshore from Ft. Lauderdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That disturbance in MO right now, looks pretty potent! Should be over the Carolinas by peak heating this evening, I'm ready for some graupel, and maybe some decent t storms, if it's not too cold!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Speaking of the day 5... Testing: Severe Weather Pattern Projection Based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule. The RRWT oscillation period average is used to project the initial future date that is expected to hold similar weather pattern ingredients as previous oscillation period weather patterns, +/- 3 days. The projections will be maintained once the projection date is ~30 days from realization. Methods used to confirm original projection will consist of modeled BSR(~30 days), current RRWT oscillation period(~30 days), observed BSR(~20 days), modeled TR(~16 days), observed TR(~8 days), and GFS/GEM/EURO model guidance(~3 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 For those who do not know about it, there is a neat little tool for short-term (60 minutes or less) severe weather forecasting. It basically uses satellite data and measures a bunch of parameters about how fast a cloud is growing, etc. to predict the possibility of going severe. It will even break down the current cape/lightning/growth stage in a tool-tip per cell. Here - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/probsev.html I haven't had a chance to use it in my back yard yet, but it does seem quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 I haven't had a chance to use it in my back yard yet, but it does seem quite nice. [brick] That's useless. We don't get severe weather around here any more [/brick] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 [brick] That's useless. We don't get severe weather around here any more [/brick] We get plenty of severe around here, severe drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Looks like a good now-casting tool in concert with a quality forecast going in. It could help storm chasers with decision making, esp if it lines up with their thinking, say along a boundary intersection. Note it does not forecast TOR probs, but severe probs are helpful. Perhaps more importantly it helps the NWS warning process. Probabilities may be highlighted before radar echos mature. Tool incorporates real-time data in addition to NWP and I always like a real-time data tool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Looks like a good now-casting tool in concert with a quality forecast going in. It could help storm chasers with decision making, esp if it lines up with their thinking, say along a boundary intersection. Note it does not forecast TOR probs, but severe probs are helpful. Perhaps more importantly it helps the NWS warning process. Probabilities may be highlighted before radar echos mature. Tool incorporates real-time data in addition to NWP and I always like a real-time data tool! It's going to get a lot more accurate with GOES-R and higher temporal resolution model output. They're also planning on differentiating wind/hail/tor threats, which will be quite hard, but not impossible I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Looks like a good now-casting tool in concert with a quality forecast going in. It could help storm chasers with decision making, esp if it lines up with their thinking, say along a boundary intersection. Note it does not forecast TOR probs, but severe probs are helpful. Perhaps more importantly it helps the NWS warning process. Probabilities may be highlighted before radar echos mature. Tool incorporates real-time data in addition to NWP and I always like a real-time data tool! Out of all places, I heard about it on the Wunderground TV show on TWC! I think Carl Parker was showing it off. I hope with the new GOES-R, they continue to work with it and make an amazingly useful tool for everyone to use. Maybe with that wind/hail/tor categorization, they will be able to come up with a great algorithm that can be applied to more than just this tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Slight Risk for a small area of NC for this afternoon/evening: ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A BELTOF 30-40 KT H5 FLOW OVERSPREADS THE APPALACHIAN SPINE AND INTO THEPIEDMONT DURING THE DAY. A WEDGE FRONT OVER VA WILL PROBABLY MOVELITTLE DURING THE PERIOD SERVING AS A NRN DELIMITER FOR ANAPPRECIABLE STRONG TSTM RISK. HOWEVER...S AND W OF THEBOUNDARY...POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTSIN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATEDESTABILIZATION /500-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. CINH WILL LIKELY WEAKENCOINCIDENT WITH STRONGER HEATING AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILLPROBABLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWEFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A MIX OFORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME WEAK SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGGGUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN BY THEEARLY EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 HWO doesn't sound overly excited... 445 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY64 CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 HWO doesn't sound overly excited... 445 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY64 CORRIDOR. The GFS is marginal with severe weather parameters, while the NAM (what a shock) is much better. The complexity of the environment and the uncertainty of the evolution of instability and storm initiation is likely the reason for the lackluster HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Hard to tell what will happen with severe weather here anymore. Might not get any storms at all, or it might be worse than anticipated. Not sure why, but it seems forecasting severe weather here has been just as difficult the last few years as forecasting winter storms. I guess it's not just here, though. There has been criticism about the severe weather "bust" in the Plains this week. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/27/tuesdays-severe-weather-bust-is-a-communication-wake-up-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 AFD update from RAH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OF 1500-2000J/KG OF MLCAPE SHOULD LEAD TO INITIATION WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTGOING ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY H5 FLOWWILL IMPROVE SHEAR VALUES TO 35 TO 40KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLSWITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGINGTHUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERSMARKEDLY IN THE MAGNITUDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Another bust for storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Another bust for storms? Did you read the afd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Did you read the afd? Yes. Guess we'll see. Nothing happening yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Some storms firing up out in western NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 28, 2016 Author Share Posted April 28, 2016 Another bust for storms? Well seeing how there not suppose to really get going till around now I would say no bust....go to the SPC meso page and look at the parameters and the shear nosing into NC from the NW, if anything it might be about to get pretty rough IMO, maybe a few hrs of discrete cells especially in central and northern NC, then a few clusters or small line segments. Might even see some watches here in the next hr. A 4 on this map is pretty darn high for around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Yep northern NC from the triad and triangle east to the coast could have it rough. Not many storms yet, but the ones that are up there now are rough looking and probably already have 1 inch hail and 50-60 mph winds in them. I'd say the SPC has this slight risk in the right place. Raleigh's AFD looks to be spot on so far too. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0484.html A watch is likely coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Some storms in the Triad now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Odd shaped Thunderstorm watch just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Odd shaped Thunderstorm watch just issued Basically outlines the CAD boundary on the east side of the watch. I'd pay attention to any storm that can ride along the boundary. The cell in Chatham, VA is already showing mid-level rotation and is in the vicinity of the CAD's southern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Basically outlines the CAD boundary on the east side of the watch. I'd pay attention to any storm that can ride along the boundary. The cell in Chatham, VA is already showing mid-level rotation and is in the vicinity of the CAD's southern fringe. The simpler explanation is that the forecaster misses Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 28, 2016 Author Share Posted April 28, 2016 Basically outlines the CAD boundary on the east side of the watch. I'd pay attention to any storm that can ride along the boundary. The cell in Chatham, VA is already showing mid-level rotation and is in the vicinity of the CAD's southern fringe. yeah seeing a bit of rotation in a few cells, not even 2% on SPC for Tor though......that cell headed for Durham and Chapel Hill looks nasty, not surprising though since that area is the bullseye for severe storms the last year or two.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Do not agree with Watch at all should NOT have included any NC mountain counties and that far south-west in VA. Should have went Foothills EAST. Honestly doubt Boone will see a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 yeah seeing a bit of rotation in a few cells, not even 2% on SPC for Tor though......that cell headed for Durham and Chapel Hill looks nasty, not surprising though since that area is the bullseye for severe storms the last year or two.... Yep. 0-1km shear is a bit lack luster for low-level rotation. These storms will be mainly hail producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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