Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL HARNETT COUNTY SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTY LEE COUNTY * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 255 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SANFORD... MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SANFORD...LILLINGTON...BROADWAY... GUM SPRINGS... SEMINOLE...LEMON SPRINGS...DUNCAN...CUMNOCK... TRAMWAY AND OLIVIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Storm is fading - too hot to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 This is in response to Brick and the accompanying mesoscale discussion but i was having trouble formatting the quote! I went to the HRRR to see when and where any more storms are expected to develop here today but it has seemed to not output any runs successfully today since 7z, i know that happens sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 634 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN PERSON COUNTY NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY NORTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 632 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROXBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROUGEMONT...CARR...LAKE MICHIE...MORIAH...SCHLEY AND BAHAMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Well, that warning has expired. Wonder if any will make it this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 A little late - board was acting up... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 648 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 648 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORLINA...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARRENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WARRENTON...NORLINA...MACON...DREWRY...WISE... AFTON AND LAKE GASTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 @NWSRaleigh 1m1 minute ago 704 pm: Tornado threat in Warren co near Wise and Norlina is lower but not zero... we're monitoring. Still a severe wind storm tho. #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 A dangerous mini atmospheric river has setup in the wedge from Surry County NC into West Virginia. It looks particular bad just east of Galax, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 There needs to be a watch issued for a good chunk of NC north of i40. Storm movement this morning is around 0-2knots and many areas were already waterlogged. Virginia blue ridge is getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 36 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: There needs to be a watch issued for a good chunk of NC north of i40. Storm movement this morning is around 0-2knots and many areas were already waterlogged. Virginia blue ridge is getting smoked. Most of NC is fine. The rain on the GSP radar is falling apart and nothing else will form today. It's too stable out there. Outside of 2 counties on the Virginia line, the flood threat in NC is zero. It's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 10 hours ago, jshetley said: Most of NC is fine. The rain on the GSP radar is falling apart and nothing else will form today. It's too stable out there. Outside of 2 counties on the Virginia line, the flood threat in NC is zero. It's not going to happen. Over 20 rescues in Statesville, NC. About half of them children. Surry County is getting smoked tonight I am forecasting 8-16" for the wedge event there. Already over 7.5" and its pouring. Hi res models have me worried I could see 3-6" of additional through tomorrow but at least I'm not in a hard hit area. And by the way for the non-wedge people, when GSP radar shows it falling apart or nothing its still actually raining, breezy, foggy, and down right nippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 If you live near Pilot Mountain you need to watch out for landslides. That steep area cannot handle this. I would recommend seeking lower ground in the Piedmont Triad if its not too late. Wunderground is showing 8.7" now and its increasing so fast its unbelievable. Below is from Statesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 35 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Over 20 rescues in Statesville, NC. About half of them children. Surry County is getting smoked tonight I am forecasting 8-16" for the wedge event there. Already over 7.5" and its pouring. Hi res models have me worried I could see 3-6" of additional through tomorrow but at least I'm not in a hard hit area. And by the way for the non-wedge people, when GSP radar shows it falling apart or nothing its still actually raining, breezy, foggy, and down right nippy. Surry is one of the 2 counties in NC I thought would get hit hard, but no way they get anywhere near 16 inches of rain. Otherwise except for a small area around Statesville no flooding is occurring. Down here in SC nothing on the radar means just that. Nothing is falling and can't fall out of a cloudless sky and it isn't anywhere near nippy down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, jshetley said: Surry is one of the 2 counties in NC I thought would get hit hard, but no way they get anywhere near 16 inches of rain. Otherwise except for a small area around Statesville no flooding is occurring. Down here in SC nothing on the radar means just that. Nothing is falling and can't fall out of a cloudless sky and it isn't anywhere near nippy down here. 0z HRRR says you need to evacuate eastern Surry County area. Additional 6-8" along the Surry border. That would bring totals to 15-17". The new warning says additional 3" bringing the total to 12.1" if you believe the experts. Radar estimates now at 9.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 934 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 NCC171-040345- /O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160804T0345Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SURRY NC- 934 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR EASTERN SURRY COUNTY... AT 923 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IN ARARAT. FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 2PM. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... ARARAT... MOUNT AIRY... FLAT ROCK... PILOT MOUNTAIN... TOAST... AND PINE RIDGE. COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED FLOODING ALONG STEWART CREEK...LOVILLS CREEK AND THE ARARAT RIVER. AVOID RADAR ROAD IN ARARAT. IT IS FLOODED AND DAMAGED. THE RIVER STAGE AT ARARAT WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE RIVER WAS STEADILY RISING. FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ON STREAMS FLOWING INTO THE ARARAT RIVER...INCLUDING TOMS CREEK AND HEATHERLY CREEK BETWEEN ARARAT AND PILOT MOUNTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 The potential for a catastrophic event rivaling the flooding in Ellicott City is occurring now in Surry County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 New cells developing over the city of Statesville tonight. If the water has receded from earlier I would probably leave to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 10 inch pixel just popped up over Surry county on Blacksburg radar any gauges in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 RELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1024 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1020 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW PILOT MOUNTAIN 36.35N 80.51W 08/03/2016 SURRY NC PUBLIC PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTED IN PILOT CREEK OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS ACROSS JIM MCKINNEY ROAD. OBSERVER MEASURED 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE HIS GAUGE OVERFLOWED. ESTIMATES 10+ INCHES AND CONTINUING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 Cars are being swept into the river. Swift water rescue teams have already saved some lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 RT @_jwall: Flooding near Pilot Mountain. Gage height of Ararat River ~19ft, new record for streamflow 18,800 ft^3/s #ncwx http://twitter.com/_jwall/status/761021351234707456/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 I though was was seeing things until I read this THERE APPEARS TO BE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SE SURRY COUNTY AND IT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FEED INTO SURRY/STOKES AND THE HEAVY RAIN OVER RANDOLPH/SW GUILFORD APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. IT APPEARS THIS CIRCULATION MAY DRIFT SW OVERNIGHT (VERY SLOWLY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 Going to need some type of advisory/warning from High Point to Winston Salem eventually. NWS Raleigh Water from this major flood event along the Ararat River will follow the streams into the Yadkin River and may flood areas downstream the Yadkin to Yadkin River as soon as Thursday. Current projections indicate Yadkin College will crest at 12 feet or 6 feet below Flood Stage. However, any additional rain, especially in Surry/Wilkes and Yadkin will be problematic for the Yadkin River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 RT @wxbrad: 10"+ of rainfall will do this Ararat River near Pilot MT. Please avoid this area. #ncwx http://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/761033199011045376/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 Blacksburg says the wedge will not erode until Friday so likely no warm thunderstorms until then. Pilot Mountain looks to easily see another 1-3" today based on some of the short range models like the HRRR which has done well in this setup. This will bring totals closer to 11-13" but I think up to 16" will still be possible if training occurs by the end of the wedge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 Upgraded to a Slight Risk for today was marginal as of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 NWS GSP & Columbia zones are seeing it now. Very nasty non-movers in north-east Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 We still have the NE winds: http://hint.fm/wind/ Still doesn't feel like Fall, but at least it was pleasant this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Author Share Posted September 1, 2016 Keep a eye on some of these storms out there today, a few have a bit of rotation in them....that cell NW of Rocky Mount is looking especially nasty...no warning on it though which is surprising since RAH likes to issue severe thunderstorm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Severe thunderstorm warning now for Person, Durham, and Orange Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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