Cold Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Nice storm going on. +6" per hour rate At a 10:1 ratio, you'd be up near 5' of snow by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 At a 10:1 ratio, you'd be up near 5' of snow by now! Well yeah, if it lasted for an hour. I ended up with .62" in just over 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Nice rotation over alamance/orange counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Second severe storm warning of the day. Let's see if this one is anymore severe than the last one was. The last one produced 3 claps of thunder, some heavy rain, and a wind gust to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Second severe storm warning of the day. Let's see if this one is anymore severe than the last one was. The last one produced 3 claps of thunder, some heavy rain, and a wind gust to 40. Nope. This time, no wind, moderate rain, and 8 claps of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Still no storm that the Brick abode. Looks like some might be coming in from the west. But like Cold Rain said, the warned storms seem to be very underwhelming here mist of the time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like all the warned storms are to the south of the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Big nasty looking storm about to roll on thru here. Vivid lightning. Storm is warned for 60mph wind and small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 Been warned twice today but the storms have been average maybe a few gust to 40.....couple of really close bolts though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 13 reports of trees down along with several fires due to lightning and a few flooded roads reported to our center tonight. Quite a few power outages as well in Goldsboro and Mt Olive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC727 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-084-091130-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-727 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER OR TRACK INTO THEWESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THETRIANGLE AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLYEVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREATOF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AS HIGHAS 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALLLINE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wording goes well with the 30% props in the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Portion of the AFD from RAH: Steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.5 c/km), strong insolation andseasonable moisture will yield moderate to strong diurnaldestabilization (1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon, while steep lowlevel lapse rates /inverted-V profiles/ beneath steep mid-levellapse rates /dry air aloft/ attendant the EML foster borderlineextreme DCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg), especially along/east of Highway 1.With central NC positioned on the southern fringe of the westerlies,deep-layer shear will fall somewhere in the 20-30 kt range. Thoughshear of this magnitude is generally too weak to support updraftrotation, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate/stronginstability could compensate and allow at least transient mid-levelrotation /supercellular characteristics/ with an attendant threatfor damaging winds and severe hail. Whether convection develops overor propagates downstream into central NC (assuming one or the otheroccurs), the greatest severe weather concern will be a conditionalpotential for widespread destructive winds given a kinematicenvironment supportive of convective organization, consolidation,and upscale growth along outflow in the presence of an atypicallyrobust thermodynamic environment capable of generating/sustainingstrong cold pools and enhanced downbursts via downward momentumtransport of speedy mid-level flow (30-35 kt at H7). -Vincent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 And from SPC (Central NC in a slight risk): ...LOWER OH RIVER AND KY/TN TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...AN MCV RELATED TO A DECAYING MCS IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OH RIVEREARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDING PARTS OF WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHEASTIL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AN ENHANCED BELT OFWESTERLY WINDS /OBSERVED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTETO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSSKY/ADJACENT TN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ANDEVENTUALLY ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE 12Z OBSERVEDSOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SAMPLED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AND CONTRIBUTE TOMODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATESHEAR...PARTICULARLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...WILLSUPPORT PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING LINEARCLUSTERS WITH WIND DAMAGE AS THE MOST COMMON SEVERE RISK THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 1 retweet 1 like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Love it when RAH and SPC talk dirty, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Most of western NC in an enhanced risk for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 Gotta watch for that leeside trough to fire off a line in a bit and there looks to be some kind of boundry forming SE of RDU and maybe just east of Fayetteville....pops up in the last few frames of the vis loop, not sure what it is, shouldnt be a marine layer with the west flow and its not a seabreeze front either. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rah/mflash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like a greater threat for more severe storms than we saw yesterday. This was the noon briefing from RAH. They are expecting scattered severe storms now, not isolated, in the Triad between 3 and 6, and the Triangle eastward between 6 and 10. And this was done before the SPC put western NC in the enhanced risk. http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf?platform=hootsuite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Areas west of I-77 in NC and SC need to watch storms in Tenn and KY too. The SPC expects an MCS to form there and cross the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Yes, HRRR has not been too consistently produced today; maybe it will come back before later afternoon. It is a complex configuration with many interacting features, some that appear less than active but it does seem closer to being very active overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 Parameters are all impressive except shear of which there is none currently....there is also this weird boundry on the vis sat over central eastern NC....that could be a focus for cells to fire out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV...WESTERN VA AND NORTHWEST NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081932Z - 082100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN VA/NC INTO THE EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WV HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF MAINTAINING FORWARD PROPAGATION AND SEVERE WIND THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E/SE INTO PARTS OF WRN VA/NC WHERE A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MODEST...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN PARTICULAR...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 90S AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DCAPE INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 357 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/08/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Watch coming for the Triangle area by 630pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 Watch coming for the Triangle area by 630pm Should be interesting, gotta watch for these pop up storms in the really unstable air mass they will go nuts fast....one NW of Rocky Mount for example if that fires off a segment then it will tap into some really unstable air, if we wait on that line back in VA instability will be dropping so it might not be as bad by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 SPC saying 95 percent chance of a watch http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md1213.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Watch is out until midnight. Watch county notification for watch 363 National Weather Service Raleigh NC 620 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016 The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363 in effect until Midnight EDT tonight for the following areas In North Carolina this watch includes 31 counties In Central North Carolina Alamance Anson Chatham Cumberland Davidson Durham Edgecombe Forsyth Franklin Granville Guilford Halifax Harnett Hoke Johnston Lee Montgomery Moore Nash Orange person Randolph Richmond Sampson Scotland stanly Vance Wake Warren Wayne Wilson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Lots of warnings out but not doing a thing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 RAH loves issuing severe thunderstorm warnings...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Huge cumulus clouds blowing up just west of here in front of the main line,see a few lightning strikes already.Radar might light up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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