2016 Severe Weather Thread

[tmagan]

CC's much lower now near the tornadic circulation as it is picking up debris.

[tmagan]

Not something you often see in Florida:

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL

349 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

 

FLC049-057-081-105-170915-

/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-160117T0915Z/

HARDEE FL-HILLSBOROUGH FL-POLK FL-MANATEE FL-

349 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM EST FOR

NORTHWESTERN HARDEE...SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHWESTERN POLK

AND NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTIES...

        

AT 349 AM EST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FISH HAWK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

 

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

 

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

 

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY 

         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES 

         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO 

         HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE 

         DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. 

 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FISH HAWK...FORT MEADE...FORT GREEN...FORT LONESOME...DUETTE...

BRADLEY JUNCTION...ALAFIA RIVER STATE PARK...HOMELAND AND WILLOW OAK.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE

TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...

MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM

FLYING DEBRIS.

 

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT

WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

 

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE

IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

 

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY

WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE

PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

 

&&

 

LAT...LON 2753 8216 2758 8223 2795 8216 2781 8175

      2760 8188

TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 218DEG 49KT 2765 8211 

 

TORNADO...OBSERVED

TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

HAIL...<.75IN

[Ground Scouring]

That Lee County, Florida storm wasn't warned for the longest time. Here's the radar imagery:

image.png

image.png

This area really needs an extra radar to fill in holes, considering the demographic vulnerabilities of the area and much of FL (mobile homes, densely packed subdivisions and apartments, elderly snowbirds, etc.). We've already seen two fatalities in a mobile home from that "large and extremely dangerous" tornado near Duette in Manatee County. Seven people were in the home when the tornado hit and did not take any precautions whatsoever. There are numerous mobile homes in the Fort Myers/Cape Coral area as well and is a potential disaster waiting to happen, especially with paltry radar coverage.

[downeastnc]

Sad, Florida having a rough start to the year at least 3 tornados so far 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1027 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 1/17/16 MANATEE COUNTY TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...A RAPIDLY MOVING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED THE
AREA...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AT LEAST 2 CONFIRMED
TORNADOES.

.DUETTE TORNADO...

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 127 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 9.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 300 YARDS
FATALITIES: 2
INJURIES: 4

START DATE: JAN 17 2016
START TIME: 335 AM EST
START LOCATION: 7 SW DUETTE / MANATEE COUNTY / FL
START LAT/LON: 27.538 / -82.219
END DATE: JAN 17 2016
END TIME: 348 AM EST
END LOCATION: 4 N DUETTE / MANATEE COUNTY / FL
END_LAT/LON: 27.642 / -82.126

NWS STORM SURVEY CREW FOUND A SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME DESTROYED
AND ROLLED OVER WITH DEBRIS BLOWN TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVEN PEOPLE
WERE INSIDE THE MOBILE HOME AT THE TIME...OF WHICH TWO ADULTS
WERE KILLED. ADDITIONALLY FOUR INJURIES WERE REPORTED FROM THE
TORNADO...INCLUDING A SEVERELY INJURED CHILD. THE TORNADO ALSO
DESTROYED A 2000 SQUARE FOOT BARN. MANATEE COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT SURVEYED THE TRACK BY HELICOPTER AND FOUND THE TORNADO
LIFTED BEFORE REACHING THE HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY BORDER.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

[metalicwx366]

Under an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today.

[Solak]

TOR Warning ~ Mississippi...

Warning has been out a little while now..

AT 341 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED NEAR HAMBURG...OR 19 MILES EAST OF NATCHEZ...MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS         LIKELY.THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  HAMBURG AROUND 345 PM CST.  KIRBY AROUND 350 PM CST.  MCNAIR AROUND 355 PM CST.  NEW HOPE AROUND 405 PM CST.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEMEADVILLE AND ROXIE.

[downeastnc]

Florida has yet another damaging tornado this morning been rough for them so far this winter....

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/possible-tornado-tosses-vehicle-along-florida-turnpike/ar-BBoM99e?li=BBnbcA1

 

Another cell west of Coral Springs area looking to be tornadic soon if it holds up it could be another damaging tornado

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like there is a good chance for severe weather next Monday through Wednesday. 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...AND RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECENS AND
NCEP MREF THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE CONCERNING THE SPEED OF
FORWARD PROGRESS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT EXISTS CONCERNING SUPPORT
FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AND IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A 100 KT WESTERLY JET STREAK AT 500 MB
WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT
850 MB DEVELOPING BY NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND STRONG FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARK PLATEAU AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO 1.25 INCHES/
AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS GREATER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF
THE QUESTION BY TUESDAY...AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES 15 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

[yoda]

Taylor Trogdon ‏@TTrogdon 18m18 minutes ago

Per @pmarshwx, this is the 1st 15% Day 7 ever issued by SPC. 10 more have been issued before format switch to 15/30%

[Solak]

This just popped up on Twitter...

‏@StephanieAbrams 9m9 minutes ago Georgia, USA

The last the SPC issued a day 7 svr outlook was 7/14/13.This would be the 11th time since April 26, 2008.Source:SPC

[LithiaWx]

Big tornado outbreak next week, it's going to be potentially epic for February.

[Brick Tamland]

Seems the wording on this threat is pretty strong for this far out.

[Brick Tamland]

[Disc]

30% added to the D5 on SPC's outlook. Mentioned extreme shear and the risk of a few strong tornadoes in the discussion. Should be worth keeping and eye on if you're in AL and MS.

[Brick Tamland]

Dr. Greg Forbes

22 hrs ·

TUESDAY
Though there are still computer model differences that impact
forecast confidence, a severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak is possible in southeast MO, south IL, south IN, southwest OH, KY, TN, east half AR, MS, AL, northwest GA, west FL panhandle, northeast and southeast LA. TORCON - 4 south IL, south IN, KY, TN, MS, AL; 3 rest of area

[Solak]

SevereStudios ‏@severestudios 12s12 seconds ago

Tornado threat today (south side):

[buckeyefan1]

Birmingham has a great discussion this morning   

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
601 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
FIRST...FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 00Z (6PM) THIS EVENING. IF ANY SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A NARROW WINDOW
BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM FOR THIS TO OCCUR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY VALUES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SEVERE INGREDIENTS WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE
MARGINAL AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RICH MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
DECENT SHEAR THE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE`RE STILL GOING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST AND
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

WE CERTAINLY CAN`T IGNORE THE FLOODING THREAT THAT WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. PWATS WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND 850-300MB FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CASES WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS. FOR NOW...WE`RE GOING TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE
OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THAT`S
DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE MAY GET DISCRETE STORMS FORM OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT THAT MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...THEN HAVE
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS EVENING. A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING.

NOW...LET`S TALK ABOUT THE SPECIFICS GOING INTO THE FORECAST TODAY.
WE`RE VERY CLOSE TO THE POINT WHERE YOU STOP LOOKING AT GUIDANCE
PARAMETERS AND START LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW...SO LET`S TAKE A LOOK
AT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. FIRST...THE COLD FRONT
HAS NOW TURNED NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. THAT FRONT HAS CERTAINLY PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH THAN A
LOT OF GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT
FRONT NOW PUSHING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES...THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN TO RICH GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
LOUISIANA. BOUYS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN GULF ARE SHOWING
AT LEAST 30 KNOT GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS.
SO...IF WE GET THE VERY STRONG 925MB LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY PROBLEMS PUSHING AT LEAST MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO HAMILTON BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IT SUPPORTS THAT IDEA AS
WELL WITH ALMOST 70 DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE DEMOPOLIS AREA.

WE`D LIKE TO POINT OUT AN INTERESTING FEATURE THIS MORNING AS SEEN
FROM IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR. A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WAS VISIBLE STRETCHING FROM JUST OFF THE TEXAS COASTLINE
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MONROE,LA AS OF 4AM. A WIND SHIFT WAS NOTED
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM OBSERVATIONS...AND WHAT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A
BORE WAVE WAS BEING PRODUCED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER THE HOUSTON
VICINITY. THIS BOUNDARY WAS QUICKLY PUSHING EASTWARD...AND AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED/TRAJECTORY WILL END UP OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI OR
WESTERN ALABAMA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S BOUNDARIES LIKE THIS ONE
THAT COULD THROW A WRENCH IN THE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST. IF ENOUGH
PARCEL LIFT CAN OCCUR WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THIS ONE...IT
WOULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL AS UPDRAFT STRENGTH
AND HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP SEVERE STORMS. WE`LL BE WATCHING
THIS FEATURE CLOSELY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. IT MAY
NOT DEVELOP ANYTHING...AS THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL INHIBITING FACTORS
THAT WILL BE IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE`VE STATED THE PAST TWO
DAYS. THE HIGH PWATS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
LAPSE RATES AND 500MB TEMPS ARE STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY WARM.
GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE COME IN A BIT COOLER WITH THOSE 500MB
TEMPS...AT LEAST FROM WHAT WE`VE SEEN THIS MORNING. (-11/-12C AS
OPPOSED TO -10C ADVERTISED YESTERDAY)

THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE IF WE CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH UPDRAFTS
THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED. THE WEAK LAPSE RATES CERTAINLY WON`T HELP
THAT CAUSE...AND UPDRAFTS WOULD BE SHEARED APART FROM THE VERY
STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND HELICITIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD WE MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME SOME OF THE INHIBITING FACTORS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
(HRRR,WRFARW) CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 3PM ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT ALSO HAS
HIGH AMOUNTS OF SB CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI HEADED OUR DIRECTION. THE ONLY WAY WE`RE GOING TO BE
ABLE TO GET THAT KIND OF UNSTABLE AIR IS FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO MIX
OUT. SUNSHINE WOULD THEN BE ALLOWED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING. IT`S CERTAINLY GOING TO BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE MESOSCALE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE`RE CURRENTLY
SCHEDULED TO LAUNCH A SPECIAL 18Z (12PM) SOUNDING WHICH WILL HELP US
BETTER DETERMINE THOSE MESOSCALE CONDITIONS. WE`LL ALSO PRODUCE
MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS TO BETTER COMMUNICATE THE EVOLVING
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY SO STAY TUNED FOR THOSE.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OUT OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD.
WE`LL BE BACK TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN
TERMS OF TEMPS WITH 30S AND 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

56/GDG

[kperk014]

Sun beaming through my office window in Florence, Al. Temp is already at 65 with a dew point of 61. Getting a queasy feeling. Sounds like a good name for a song.

[Brick Tamland]

 

 

 

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MS   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 021554Z - 021730Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT   SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDS   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF   PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULD   COMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z.   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO   UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWER   MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE   REGION.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAY   SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI   VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING.   AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO   INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION.  WEAK BOUNDARY   LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN   ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI   BOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE   ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER   BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF AN   APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORM   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT.   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE   STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A   50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND   POTENTIAL.  THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD   WITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTS   OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.   ..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016

[max100]

74 at my house, dp 65,  Surely ATL should be included in some of this...???  Not that I want it, but it feels like May outside.

[Solak]

Gotta give the SPC a lot of credit for picking up on today's severe weather potential way back last week for their day 7 outlook. One confirmed tornado so far, numerous radar indicated storms ongoing.

[kayman]

TORNADO WARNING ALC107-119-022330- /O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0001.160202T2223Z-160202T2330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 423 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 530 PM CST * AT 422 PM CST...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER COOKSVILLE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALICEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... MEMPHIS AROUND 440 PM CST. ALICEVILLE...MCMULLEN AND GARDEN AROUND 445 PM CST. PICKENSVILLE AROUND 450 PM CST. CARROLLTON AROUND 500 PM CST. REFORM AROUND 510 PM CST. GORDO AROUND 515 PM CST. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GAINESVILLE LAKE CAMPGROUND...GEORGE DOWNER AIRPORT...DILLBURG... COCHRANE...OWENS AND MCSHAN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3314 8832 3343 8814 3329 8787 3300 8820 3287 8835 TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 216DEG 39KT 3296 8840 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 17/KLAWS

[jojo762]

Very large wedge tornado near Aliceville, AL. Caused damage too, been on the ground for roughly an hour.

[janetjanet998]

2100   4 S NEWTON NEWTON MS 3227 8915 TREES AND POWERPOLES DOWN S OF NEWTON ON HIGHWAY 15. NEAR LIBERTY CHURCH ROAD AREA. (JAN)

 

2123   COLLINSVILLE LAUDERDALE MS 3249 8884 REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN COLLINSVILLE. FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH IN COLLINSVILLE HEAVILY DAMAGED ON HWY 19N. BARNS DAMAMAGED. TREES DOWN IN THE AREA AND ACROSS ROADS. NEAR LAKE(JAN)

 

 

2140   PRISMATIC KEMPER MS 3259 8874 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN PRISMATIC. RELAYED VIA EMERGENCY MANAGER.

 

(JAN) 2210   5 NW ELECTRIC MILLS KEMPER MS 3281 8853 CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND. REPORTED VIA STORM SPOTTER AND LIVESTREAM VIDEO AND PICTURES.

 

(JAN) 2225   2 N SCOOBA KEMPER MS 3285 8848 TREES DOWN ON THE EAST MISSISSIPPI COMMUNITY COLLEGE CAMPUS ... SOME IMPACTING BUILDINGS.

[oldlogin]

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

453 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

 

ALC107-022330-

/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160202T2330Z/

PICKENS AL-

453 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

 

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CARROLLTON ALABAMA...

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST FOR CENTRAL

PICKENS COUNTY...

    

AT 452 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED

NEAR GARDEN...OR NEAR PICKENSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CARROLLTON. TAKE COVER NOW. THIS IS A

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

 

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO. 

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

[janetjanet998]

enhanced risk with hatched tornado area...with 2 watches and multiple warnings the past few hours..

several confirmed

 

the lack of posts are perplexing

[SmokeEater]

Carrolton about to take a direct hit, supercells lining up behind this one into MS now too...

[oldlogin]

The Carrollton tornado

 

 

[janetjanet998]

502 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CST  
 
* AT 501 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER CARROLLTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
 

[SmokeEater]

May have went JUST NW of Carrollton.