NWNC2015 Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 It's almost comical at how bad the radar is doing per ground truth obs in southern VA and northern NC. Do not expect water issues in the Piedmont Triad. High Risk Severe Weather events don't even give this area 5% tornado probs...and they thought this event coming from a northerly trajectory would?! It goes to show trust your local NWS discussion over the SPC who knows very little about the micro-climates east of the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Tomorrow looks a little more favorable for a few isolated tornadoes...in a 1-2-3 step process. Could see a renegade super-cell clip the north-eastern Piedmont and go into the red area...then storms will be in progress pushing into Charlotte...where they may be severe or soon after...as both areas reach number 3 where I think will actually see a few warned tornadoes. This is based on the HRRR and 4k NAM. Bust potential exists based on early cloud cover esp west and central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Tomorrow looks a little more favorable for a few isolated tornadoes...in a 1-2-3 step process. Could see a renegade super-cell clip the north-eastern Piedmont and go into the red area...then storms will be in progress pushing into Charlotte...where they may be severe or soon after...as both areas reach number 3 where I think will actually see a few warned tornadoes. This is based on the HRRR and 4k NAM. Bust potential exists based on early cloud cover esp west and central NC. Not sure how you get the 24hr HRRR, no way you could base that forecast off of a model that only runs out 15 hrs. 15 hrs from Midnight would only be 3pm. Stop with all this SPC bashing. They do an awesome job with the models they are provided. One day you will realize that no model resolves the Apps very well and WNC is likely one of the hardest areas to forecast around the US. Statistics shows that 30% of MCS type maintain form and structure exiting WNC. Therefore 30% of the time, those in the lee of the Apps get strong storms from these type events. Many factors go into why storms maintain through the Apps (elevated convection ect.) and not all can be resolved by models so the SPC just incorporates the high elevations of WNC and the lee side of apps into their warning. For today, looking at STP parameters on the HRRR and nothing seems to push over 1 on that index through the evening across NC/SC. If there is a spin-up today, it will be due to locally enhanced 0-1km helicity forming on residual boundaries. This will mean decent storm structure and the chance for large hail with updrafts being stretched in the vertical. The chance is there today for a couple of weak tornado's across NC, but nothing to fear monger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 24, 2016 Author Share Posted June 24, 2016 Not sure how you get the 24hr HRRR, no way you could base that forecast off of a model that only runs out 15 hrs. 15 hrs from Midnight would only be 3pm. Stop with all this SPC bashing. They do an awesome job with the models they are provided. One day you will realize that no model resolves the Apps very well and WNC is likely one of the hardest areas to forecast around the US. Statistics shows that 30% of MCS type maintain form and structure exiting WNC. Therefore 30% of the time, those in the lee of the Apps get strong storms from these type events. Many factors go into why storms maintain through the Apps (elevated convection ect.) and not all can be resolved by models so the SPC just incorporates the high elevations of WNC and the lee side of apps into their warning. For today, looking at STP parameters on the HRRR and nothing seems to push over 1 on that index through the evening across NC/SC. If there is a spin-up today, it will be due to locally enhanced 0-1km helicity forming on residual boundaries. This will mean decent storm structure and the chance for large hail with updrafts being stretched in the vertical. The chance is there today for a couple of weak tornado's across NC, but nothing to fear monger. SPC doesnt even have 2% Tor for anywhere in the Carolinas today, still cloudy here so far but its nice and sunny to the west so this stuff should burn off in the next couple of hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Already mid 80's here at the coast and plenty of sunshine. Areas inland are only in the mid 70's. Hopefully we get some decent storms out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 I look for that huge slight risk area to be trimmed back considerably later today. RAH AFD As of 1110 AM Friday...Many signs seem to be pointing toward much less coverage of stormstoday... Thus, the latest thinking isthat a few clusters of storms will be possible by mid-afternoon,some with supercell characteristics closer to the VA border, but thecoverage may not be as great as previous model forecasts hadprojected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 SPC doesnt even have 2% Tor for anywhere in the Carolinas today, still cloudy here so far but its nice and sunny to the west so this stuff should burn off in the next couple of hrs. Yeah but they are always wrong for NWNC so clearly they have no idea.. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 159 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 158 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOGUE OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWPORT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SWANSBORO AND HAMMOCKS BEACH STATE PARK AROUND 230 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CEDAR POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 BOGUE, NC (WNCT) – The US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC confirms an EF-0 tornado with estimated winds of 65mph in Bogue, North Carolina touched down around 1:45pm this afternoon. One person was reported injured as a result of the EF-0 tornado. The extent of the injuries are unknown at this time. http://wnct.com/2016/06/25/one-person-injured-in-ef-0-tornado-near-bogue/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 9:30 AM RAH Weather briefing. (pdf) http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf?platform=hootsuite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 9:30 AM RAH Weather briefing. (pdf) http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf?platform=hootsuite The simulated radar they show looks more like a line of storms forming than just isolated storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The hi res downeastnc posted in the obs for later today looks nasty, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The 12z hi res NAM tries to build a line: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Seems to be a difference in what the simulated radars are showing and the forecast for just isolated storms. Just have to wait and see which one we really get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Not sure where you're getting 'isolated' from..."Showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The briefing says an isolated storm is possible, and the SPC has us in the marginal risk, which is for isolated storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The briefing says an isolated storm is possible, and the SPC has us in the marginal risk, which is for isolated storms. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 206 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081815- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 206 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS AND EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Convective available potential energy is not really impressive across central NC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The briefing says an isolated storm is possible, and the SPC has us in the marginal risk, which is for isolated storms. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 206 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081815- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 206 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS AND EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. That's just making my point about the conflicting info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 That's just making my point about the conflicting info. I think it's less about conflicting info and more about interpretation of language. The briefing mentioned isolated severe storms. In context with their other comments, they are meaning thunderstorms are possible with only a few (isolated) of them going severe. All of their other forecast products indicate scattered storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I think it's less about conflicting info and more about interpretation of language. The briefing mentioned isolated severe storms. In context with their other comments, they are meaning thunderstorms are possible with only a few (isolated) of them going severe. All of their other forecast products indicate scattered storms. I see what you're saying now. Maybe it would be good to be more specific with their wording like that, saying there will be scattered storms, and some isolated storms could be severe. It just looked like there was more coverage with the radar simulations than isolated storms. I think if they said both together it could prevent confusion. When RAH and the SPC just say isolated severe storms, I think a lot of folks in the general public that don't come to boards like this could take that as just meaning the storms themselves will be isolated. Anyway, what we actually get with storms here has been so uncertain and hard to forecast the past few years, so who knows what we'll actually get in coverage and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I'm so glad that most of the general public don't read the nws briefings and discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Warnings out on the 3 lead cells Approaching Wake, Harnett, JoCo, Cumberland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 I'm so glad that most of the general public don't read the nws briefings and discussions. There should be a test that must be passed before they can be viewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Warnings out on the 3 lead cells Approaching Wake, Harnett, JoCo, Cumberland Yep...expecting the usual burst of rain and some small breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 And a watch is out until 11:00PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Storm coming into downtown Raleigh now. Trying to outrun it to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 Clear out very little in the way of clouds other than the massive thunderstorm complex to my west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Stronger and damaging winds stayed S&E of here. Was breezy, more thunder than lightning, 0.41". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Nice storm going on. +6" per hour rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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