Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Severe thunderstorm warning now for Person, Vance, Granville, and Warren counties until 8:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 that cell just over the line near Emporia VA is getting some rotation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 that cell just over the line near Emporia VA is getting some rotation... If it forms a tornado in Emporia, the cops there will try to pull it over for speeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STORMS WITH POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD STILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINA/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 00-02Z. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A NEW WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED AFTER THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION. DISCUSSION...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. IN LOWER-LEVELS...FLOW HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AND APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE APPROACHING STORMS FROM THE WEST COULD STILL INTENSIFY SOME THROUGH 00-02Z. AIDED BY POTENTIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...STRONGER STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE WEAKENING/SPREADING OFFSHORE BY 02-03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Western Wake had a gust of 59 mph. Just rain and some thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Light to moderate showers. Thunder saw well to the South. About a tenth so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Looks like the storms are probably done for the night here. Another dud for severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Looks like the storms are probably done for the night here. Another dud for severe storms. Yep, you could tell by late afternoon. Too much instability, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Western Wake had a gust of 59 mph. Just rain and some thunder here.we just missed the storm by mere inches in northern Chatham near orange / Durham co corner. But the winds were very gusty coming out of that complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 we just missed the storm by mere inches in northern Chatham near orange / Durham co corner. But the winds were very gusty coming out of that complex. You can literally see the rain shaft falling behind the tree line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 Yep, you could tell by late afternoon. Too much instability, I guess. Yeah not sure where this one went wrong, nothing got organized not enough forcing or something..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Yeah not sure where this one went wrong, nothing got organized not enough forcing or something..... Yeah I don't know man. Parameters looked pretty good, but maybe it was the weak mid level lapse rates. We had 3 pretty heavy showers here and only one clap of thunder all day, all while under an enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Yeah not sure where this one went wrong, nothing got organized not enough forcing or something..... Yeah I don't know man. Parameters looked pretty good, but maybe it was the weak mid level lapse rates. We had 3 pretty heavy showers here and only one clap of thunder all day, all while under an enhanced risk. Must be the same thing that has been happening the past four years whenever we are under an enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 A good writeup from The Capital Weather Gang and their missing severe weather. What happened to the severe storms expected Sunday?https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/06/what-happened-to-the-severe-storms-expected-sunday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0319 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 410 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN GA & THE WESTERN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 062009Z - 070209Z SUMMARY...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME BACKBUILDING CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN AN UNUSUAL ENVIRONMENT. WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM COLIN APPEARS LIKE AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE IN THE THERMAL FIELD AND WITHIN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE, MUCH OF GA, AND SC. ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE DEEPER CLOUDS, PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING FROM NORTHEAST AL ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, WHICH ARE SHOWING BACKBUILDING CHARACTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE INVERTED THERMAL FIELD ACROSS THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY IN THE REGION, WITH WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST, WHERE MLCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2" LIE HERE, PER RAP FORECAST MASS FIELDS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS AL APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING A BOOST TO UPWARD MOTION IN THE REGION. RAP MASS FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE DEW POINT GRADIENT WILL RETREAT NORTHWEST OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE INSTABILITY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BACKBUILDING CELLS AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWEST, WHICH COULD OCCASIONALLY SHOW SOME ORGANIZATION AS BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ARE 30-40 KTS. THE 12Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES IMPLY ISSUES WOULD REACH A MAXIMUM IN THE 22-01Z WINDOW. GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX VALUES MAXIMIZE AROUND 21Z. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, CELL COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR IT SHOWS LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY. SHOULD THE CELLS SHOW SOME LONGEVITY OR START TO MERGE, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, 1.5" AN HOUR RAIN RATES WOULD BE PAR FOR THE COURSE. AFTER SUNSET, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO FALTER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE MPD CATEGORY AS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 52m52 minutes ago A few severe storms are possible in the northern Coastal Plain from 4pm - 9pm. Damaging winds are the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE... WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIANGLE REGION TO GOLDSBORO... BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 4 PM AND 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Down in Nags Head. Hoping for storms! I really wish we get some lightning at night. Would be cool to get some pictures over the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 There's a couple storms moving through Va. Beach. If they hold together, you might get your wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Chance of storms the next three days, Under a marginal risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1240 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE CAROLINASCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 151740Z - 151915ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS WILLDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. A WATCH IS NOTCURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A WIDESPREADINCREASE IN DEEPENING CU FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THECAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLYMOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGSSHOWING PW VALUES 1.7-2.1 INCHES. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SRNAPPALACHIANS MAY BE FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY A WEAK MCV MOVING EWD OUTOF SERN TN AND NRN GA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEARTHE COAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MOVEOFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO.CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THEMID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZEDMULTICELL CLUSTERS POSSIBLE GIVEN 15-20 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RICHTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SOME STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATESWILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...SOME OFWHICH COULD APPROACH SVR LIMITS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GENERALLY POORMIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A WATCH IS NOTANTICIPATED ATTM...ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Been mostly sunny here today. Not even any cumulus to look at. There's a couple outflow boundaries moving towards the general Triangle area from the storms to the South. Might be something to watch later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 918 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT * AT 918 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LOUISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LOUISBURG AND INGLESIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I was in Petco last night when the storm rolled through. It was a great storm. Lots of thunder and lightning, wind, and pouring rain. Once again I experience a big storm when there is no watch at all, but when we do have a watch there's no storms to speak of around here. Funny how that seems to be the norm the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Wasn't impressed with the special balloon sounding results.....mixed and less moisture. Stray thundershower possible northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Hefty line of storms rolling thru Va right now. Looks like they have a good chance of making it into NC later tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Wasn't impressed with the special balloon sounding results.....mixed and less moisture. Stray thundershower possible northern NC. Stability wall incoming. Gonna go poof before it gets to Charlotte at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 No lie but I can see lightning from the southern VA storms,haven't even entered NC yet.They have to be close to 120 miles from me. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Watching and waiting. Hail threat diminishing and looking weaker as the storms hit the untapped instability area of north-west NC with record level 80 degree heat at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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