jshetley Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Shetley , is that you? Nope. Don't ask me why, but I have a feeling that Sunday may turn out to be rough if timing is right. 40-50KTS of shear is hard to ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Nope. Don't ask me why, but I have a feeling that Sunday may turn out to be rough if timing is right. 40-50KTS of shear is hard to ignore It never works out! It'll be coming through in the early morning, and the line ignites in Gaffney. We are barely in the slight risk for Sunday. Then dry for 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Nope. Don't ask me why, but I have a feeling that Sunday may turn out to be rough if timing is right. 40-50KTS of shear is hard to ignore It may end up that way but the evening models are not too excited about it for my neck of the woods right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 It never works out! It'll be coming through in the early morning, and the line ignites in Gaffney. We are barely in the slight risk for Sunday. Then dry for 7-10 days. This is true I'm not expecting much imby, but those to my north/northeast should be in a much better environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Need a lot of things to go just right for severe on Sunday. Morning to midday rain could be a mess in Virginia with the lead short-wave / left front (exit) quad of the speed max. Big question is whether some clearing can occur between waves for North Carolina. One would look for lift in the right rear (entrance) of the speed max to rescue the afternoon. That is tough in the Plains, and I would say it is a long shot back East. However, some things are going in favor should the above pan out. Sunday an outflow boundary may be near the NC/VA border. Apps lee tough will be a focus well ahead of the cold front, a much better mechanism than a cold front. Above outflow boundary should intersect with the lee trough. Chasers would look there. It is a low probability deal in my opinion, but at least a chase target exists if someone wants to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 I wouldnt rule out pulse severe being a bit more common in NC today as well....the surface is unstable as hell, but there is not much in the way of shear and lapse rates are meh but 3-4 hrs from now the lower levels will be loaded and it wont take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 RAH is right on the edge of the enhanced risk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looks like we are going the opposite way from what folks were thinking yesterday. Mike Maze at WRAL said we might be in the moderate risk tomorrow, and now we are barely in the enhanced risk. Seems whenever there is talk of severe weather more than 24 hours out the last two to three years it ends up being nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looks like we are going the opposite way from what folks were thinking yesterday. Mike Maze at WRAL said we might be in the moderate risk tomorrow, and now we are barely in the enhanced risk. Seems whenever there is talk of severe weather more than 24 hours out the last two to three years it ends up being nothing. There hasn't been any mention of a moderate risk, as far as I know. We were barely in the enhanced risk area yesterday an the day before as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looks like we are going the opposite way from what folks were thinking yesterday. Mike Maze at WRAL said we might be in the moderate risk tomorrow, and now we are barely in the enhanced risk. Seems whenever there is talk of severe weather more than 24 hours out the last two to three years it ends up being nothing. The moderate talk was just that talk, and the enhanced area isnt that much different, there is a lot of factors as usual in play for us tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Maze said that yesterday. Of course things can change. Just seems since we had the last big tornado outbreak in 2011 that whenever there is talk of a severe risk more than 24 hours out it usually ends up not doing much here, but we end up getting some good storms when there isn't much talk at all. Looks like a big batch of storms out west to Charlotte and the Triad are headed this way, though. So, we'll see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Two questions. 1. Hey, has anyone else noticed that the little location listing is no longer there underneath the poster pictures? 2. What the heck happened to Frank Strait over at Accuweather? His last post appears to have been on April 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Two questions. 1. Hey, has anyone else noticed that the little location listing is no longer there underneath the poster pictures? 2. What the heck happened to Frank Strait over at Accuweather? His last post appears to have been on April 16th. 1. Everything is turned off......they are trying to repair the board 2. No clue because I don't frequent Accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 0 retweets 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 9 retweets 2 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 RAH saying any time between 2 and 10 could be rough here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Doesn't look like we have to worry about storms or clouds this morning keeping instability down for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Eastern NC already over 3000 cape at surface and 2000 mcape....LI-6, temp is 85 with a 75 DP the air is primed for sure.....question is now the timing and how many discrete supercells fire out in front of the "line" of storms expected after 5pm....if we do get a lot of storms out in front they might be the main show and should have the best chance of popping of tornado.... edit: the one thing that might make this a less severe event would be that is is so unstable we end up with a lot of unorganized trashy mess that choke out each other and prevent anything more organized forming....if that happens then the best shot at severe type stuff will be the "line" the models have crossing between 5-10pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Doesn't look like we have to worry about storms or clouds this morning keeping instability down for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Plenty of sun today from Raleigh eastward. It has been windy all day, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 That's a large watch box!!! STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITHA PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. LARGE HAIL OFONE AND A HALF INCH DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALLAND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well, we have the watch now. Just have to wait and see. No storms at all as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well, we have the watch now. Just have to wait and see. No storms at all as of yet. ....in your backyard. The world is a little larger than Durham, Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 ....in your backyard. The world is a little larger than Durham, Brick. Cool, but too bad I don't live in Durham. And there have not been any at all in the area yet. Guess they will fire up when it starts to cool off this evening like it has done the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Cell near Hope Mills just south of Fayetteville went way severe quick.....the one up near Ahoskie is 40k ft......so hail with both of those likely....also the cell near Whiteville west of ILM has some potential to spin up in the best area for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Too many debris clouds here to get any convection going,no need for a watch this far west in my opinion but whatever. Pretty obvious around 9 or 10AM this was a no go around here,eastern areas have a better chance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 91 over 72 right now.....air is primed the next 2-3 hrs will be rough for some folks if the stuff down south can get moving, otherwise we wait for the "line" that is forming up out in the Triad but it will be later so it wont be during peak heating, if that energy was crossing central and eastern NC right now it would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I don't know why, but it feels like it's going to be a bust on the whole severe weather thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I don't know why, but it feels like it's going to be a bust on the whole severe weather thing. It's been that way more often than not around our area ever since the outbreak in 2011. For some reason whenever there is talk of severe weather more than 24 hours out, we usually end up not getting anything severe, and often no storm at all. Then we get pretty good storms when there is hardly any talk of anything severe. Maybe this will be different, though. Starting to get dark here and looks like a storm might be brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It's been that way more often than not around our area ever since the outbreak in 2011. For some reason whenever there is talk of severe weather more than 24 hours out, we usually end up not getting anything severe, and often no storm at all. Then we get pretty good storms when there is hardly any talk of anything severe. Maybe this will be different, though. Starting to get dark here and looks like a storm might be brewing. The radar indicates some activity inbound, but it is a mess and looks to be below severe limits. So sign of any squall line forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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